AQs in 4bet pot

I think it is too weak assumption that he 3bets wide enough vs utg because he folds a lot vs 3bet. It is questionable if he has enough hands on UTG to see that info.

so I think this hand is too loose readless, but aslo I think that 4bet size OOP is too small, you will hardly see enough folds.
I think turn is already marginal call, it is hard to see weaker hands in his range, so river would be easy fold especially on paired board where regs usually shut down

Originally posted by GingerKid
I think it is too weak assumption that he 3bets wide enough vs utg because he folds a lot vs 3bet. It is questionable if he has enough hands on UTG to see that info.

I disagree. Maybe 11% 3bet doesn't show it enough but he definitely 3bets very wide. On the limited sample of hands he has 3bet more from MP and CO than from the BTN and the blinds. Also I have a note that he once just overcalled UTG raise with AA from MP so either he has been getting very good hands from MP and CO or he is overdoing it with 3bets.

Originally posted by GingerKid
so I think this hand is too loose readless, but aslo I think that 4bet size OOP is too small, you will hardly see enough folds.

The sizing of my 4bet is indeed probably to small but I didn't want to invest to much as I was going to fold to a 5bet. Also I don't expect him to fold better hand no matter my sizing and would it be really that bad if he called with worse? I expect him to 3bet there with something like suited Ax and maybe KJs, KTs and similar hands all of which I am ahead of. I would be out of position but SPR would be lower also.

Originally posted by GingerKid
I think turn is already marginal call, it is hard to see weaker hands in his range, so river would be easy fold especially on paired board where regs usually shut down

The problem Is I was not sure how aggressive or bluffy was he postflop. I am not sure if he is a reg as I think I should have more hands on him if he was. He easily could have a K, AJ or even QQ but he may have some J or maybe some spade or diamond FD or at least that is what I was thinking at the time. I was playing my had very weakly so it is not unreasonable he could be trying to bluff me.
But I agree that in hindsight river is most likely a fold against a villain you are unsure about.

I think it is not good if he flats worse hands. It is better if he folds them when you are oop. Usually regs would flat also QQ, AK likely also KK, and some would protect range with AA. So if he also flats some KTs AXs hands, his range will play better IP than your totally obvious range. So imo it is better to put villian in 5bet/fold mode when OOP having obvious range.

Postflop you dont know his tendencies but you likely know that average reg wouldnt bluff this spot much vs so strong range. So if that assumption is true then fold is in average good

He easily could have a K, AJ or even QQ but he may have some J

The jacks that he has are Pair + open ender. Doubt he'd turn those into bluffs.

I don't have any huge issues with the preflop line as a bluff so long as we don't overuse it.

I think turn is even a x/f. As was mentioned in the thread he probably tends toward checking back a lot of his showdown value hands meaning he primarily is betting for value on the turn. It's hard for him to have any air here after he calls a cold-4bet preflop.