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zoom, wide open BvB vs unk reg, plan?

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Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

Hero (SB): $27.74 (111 bb)
BB: $44.88 (179.5 bb)
UTG: $25.10 (100.4 bb)
MP: $65.89 (263.6 bb)
CO: $19.21 (76.8 bb)
BTN: $24.73 (98.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6 9
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 7 J 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

Turn: ($3.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.40, BB calls $2.40

River: ($8.30) K (2 players)
Hero bets $5,

I have very small sample on guy. The plan was to put pressure on his Jx and 8x type hands. Also he should fold out his A♥: flush draws on river if he is calling down with them. What you think about such plan?


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3 replies
EthereaL
Joined: 04.10.2008

If BB gets to the river with something like this - AJs,A8s-A4s,KJs,K8s,QTs+,Q8s,J8s+,T8s,98s,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah3h,Ah2h,AJo,A8o,KJo,QJo,JTo (117 combos).
I expect him to call with AJs,KJs,QJs,J9s+,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo (68 combos). That gives you 42% FE, which means your EV is +2bb.

But we need to take into consideration other things. What if BB raises some of his FDs OTF? How much does he defend bvb? What range does he 3bet when he defends? How much does he fold to cbets OTF and OTT? If he folds his 8x on the turn, it's a terrible bet on the river. We need to know a lot more to decide what to do here.


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Thanks for replying. Your points are really good but its hard to say about his tendencies. I guess we can make assumptions about average nl25 reg?

Its interesting that you think he will call river bet with JTo and QJo. Isnt thats a bit too weak to call down 3 streets? Or its because of blind v blind situation?


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

We have a reasonable draw, but it's made a little less good by the presence of the J. It means we are not drawing to the nuts and it means our T out will put a 4-to-straight out there.

So without that J on board it'd be a perfect spot to 2barrel even on a blank turn card imo.

River is a great card to bluff. We have no heart blockers and relatively little showdown. Pretty standard river bluff even vs an unknown imo.


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