Hey guys,
just a quick update. My/Oblioos slot was removed for today after last weeks mishap, and to work on a more concrete plan for the future. Apologies for that, but we'll let you know what the plan is going forward. Can check this thread, or the coaching schedule to see when were back.
Just to offer some help on mysteryman's hand, since he did post it:
This reg is 28/22, 3bing 13% and CCing 10% in the CO... so I would make the assumption that he's 3bing a polarized range and flatting in the middle. 10% can vary by reg, but its going to look something like 22-JJ/QQ, big broadways, and some SCs.
On the flop, I really like that we flatted villains raise. Its a spot where I think getting it in is OK, but not best. The standard part of a raising range here will be sets and high equity draws willing to get it in, with a few bluffs as well. Were around a coinflip vs that range to get it in, plus some extra dead money when he folds his draws. But, the other option is to flat, and keep his draws in, take odds on a call, and play the turn and river. I think this is more +EV.
Unfortunately, the turn is a very bad card for us. All his NFDs get there, we still lose to sets, and some random bluffs such as 88 improve. I think if you look at his range now, we just lose too much to be able to continue. Add in the fact that hes following through on most rivers (were essentially playing for stacks on the turn), and the fact that even if we boat up we might not be good, then its going to be a fold on the turn.