Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $150(BB) Replayer
SB ($2,042)
BB ($444)
Hero ($514)
Dealt to Hero 8♣ A♦
Hero raises to $499 (AI), fold, BB calls $279 (AI)
do you shove nash range here
19% 55+, A3s+, K9s+, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+
i consider it to be way too tight.
it depends on SB shove %. if SB shove is going to be 100% the nash range is correct. the reason why it is so tight is because SB shoves 100% and BB calls something like 60%? so when you fold SB and BB will go all-in 60% of the time. If SB is a fish who folds too much then your BTN shove range needs to be much wider because you must not give the BB a walk.
how would you estimate sb-bb allin freq if its fish who completes alot here on SB vs reg / vs other fish? i cannot even guess how to estimate it. it should be less but how much
btw, how is you SNE run this year? hopefully not half of vpps for december? 
how many regs joined from satellites so far?
and have you noticed considerable lack of fish on your stakes after spin and goes appeared?
i would put in a few different scenarios into SB vs BB range and see how your BTN shove range differs. try as low as 25% SB shove up to 75%. You can keep BB call around nash because he wont really be too much tighter with his short stack. once you have 3-4 different scenarios in the calculator you can see how much your BTN shove range differs between them and decide in game which one to choose depending on exactly what you think the fish is doing.
Im not going for SNE this year. stars hurt hypers a lot with spin and goes and the changes to SNE in 2016 will probably kill the games completely. Ive been playing turbos mostly these days.
turbos remained the same after spins were introduced then?
i actually thought there were only regs in turbos by now
btw why no regs try spins? with so many fish playng there.
im not sure if spin affected turbos, i wasnt playing them before spin (well for 3 years anyway).
spin variance is higher than any other form. the rake is insanely high (no one knows yet if they are even beatable after rake ITLR). I'm sure regs are playing spins, I dont know whether it is a good idea for a long term profitable game. Yes they are fishy, but the rake is absurdly high in a format where ROIs are already very very low. Maybe people will show some long term results in them, but until then I am unconvinced. Especially with the reduced VIP bonuses which make grinding hypers/spins less attractive.
reduced vip bonuses? have i missed something? or are you referring to 2016 changes? its too long until them and i dont know actually anything about them 
i dont remember what spin rake is but im quite sure that if on most of tables you play 3max against two fish you can have good ROI even with considerable rake, not just breakeven play. as for variance.. well varince is important when you play 6max against 4 regs. when its fishy 3max im not sure varience would be too great even with jackpot prize system. unfortunately with my postflop im not even sure im better then fish otherwise i would have already switched 
SNE is a 2 year deal. 20-25% of SNE value is achieved in the following year. so going for SNE in 2015 is already reduced in value because you get no benefit in 2016.
