w34z3l's red line rampage (new video series)

This is my graph including PokerStars, where I’m really struggling right now.

w34z3l mentioned pretty much every major problem in my game, some of which were surprising to me, and I never thought about them, like cold-calling leak. But I kinda always struggled with 3-betting and preferred to play postflop in single-raised pots. I would say this is my biggest leak right now, and first of all I’m going to focus on it.

To sum up all the leaks in my game I know of:

Low 3-bet
High fold to 3-bet
Low flop c-bet
Cold-calling
Playing suited connectors (I lose money with those hands)
Low raise vs flop cbet
Low 4-bet bluff
Passive play in multi-way pots
High folding % on the river

Overall, after this video I see that my game has a lot of areas that need improving and I want to thank w34z3l for pointing them out.

Lately I started 3betting a lot more, trying to find some spots for profitable 3bets, but after analyzing my database I still found some spots, where I missed 3-bets. Mainly those are spots where I have pretty weak hand and I don’t even consider 3-betting. I just fold and don’t pay attention to my opponent.

Here are my 3-bet % in some situations with examples:

BTN vs CO – 4.77%

CO in this situation is a 24/17 player over 479 hands and his fold to 3bet at the moment is 79%. He is opening from CO 30% of hands and so far folded to 3bet 80% (4/5). This is pretty nice spot to 3bet him almost with any two and Q3s is definitely a good candidate. SB in this situation is a fishy guy, but BB is a huge nit playing 13/9. So I have to pay more attention to stats of my opponents.

BTN vs MP – 2.82%

In this hand MP is playing 25/21. I had only 93 hands on this player, but he folded to 3-bet 100% and 100% (2/2) from CO. So this was an excellent spot to 3bet him and I had a very good hand to do it with. I noticed in my database that I folded a lot of suited Ax up to A9 from BTN vs MP and maybe that’s why I have a very poor 3-bet % in this spot.

BTN vs UTG – 2%

Like in previous situation I’ve been missing a lot of profitable 3-bet spots from BTN vs UTG (I’ve been missing those in all spots really ). In this hand the UTG is a shortstacked guy but he is opening 16% of hand from UTG and folding to 3-bets ridiculous 86%. So while A3s is a fine hand to 3-bet vs UTG in general, vs this guy I could have 3-bet much wider.

After analyzing my 3-bets from BTN I decided to take a look at my BB stats:

BB vs SB – 7.36%

When I was looking through the hands that I folded in this spot some of them made me cringe and curse at myself. I don’t know what I was thinking back then. Well, I guess the good thing is that it means that my game in this spot improved a lot from the time I played these.
For example in this hand villain is a reg, who plays 25/20, opens 41% from the SB and fold to 3-bet 66% of the time. Is there any excuse to fold this hand vs him? Of course not! Shame on the past me. I can’t even blame it on a missclick, because there were a bunch of those hands.

BB vs BTN – 6.02%

This is another spot where I have a very low 3-bet compared to optimal. Looking through my database I found out, that I wasn’t 3-betting at all with weak suited connectors, even in perfect situations. For example here BTN is a 21/17 reg who opens 46% of buttons and folds to 3-bet on the BTN 78%. So even though this hand should be in my default 3-betting range, we can probably 3-bet almost any two versus this guy.

SB vs BTN – 10.7%

This is one of the few spots where my 3-betting frequency is closer to optimal, but I feel like it still should be a bit higher.

I’m still overfolding some suited connectors in obvious 3-bet spots. Here, for example, the villain is a 26/21 reg and is opening 47% from the BTN. His overall fold to 3-bet is quite low – 53%, but that is mainly from early positions and on the BTN he is folding 78% to 3-bets. So I definitely should pay more attention to these spots.

Summary

After analyzing my database I see that I miss 3-bet opportunities pretty much in every possible spot. I didn’t include situations like MP vs UTG because I was even nittier there and almost never 3-bet bluffed. I’ve already started to improve my 3-betting situation. I re-watched the second episode of 6-max walkthrough and now every time I play I try to think about 3-betting and pay attention to villains, stats etc.

This month I’ve been working a lot on improving my 3-bet frequencies, and in the last 30k hands it almost doubled, but still it’s a bit low at 7.1%. Now I’m 3-betting a lot more aggressive IP in situations like BTN vs CO, MP and UTG, but as it turned out, I still have some problems in 3-betting from the blinds, specifically from BB.

During the analysis I found out that my biggest problem in playing preflop from the blinds is that I cold-call too much from BB vs BTN with hands that should be bluff 3-bets. Which results in very high CC% and low 3bet%. The same numbers from SB seem reasonable.

BB vs BTN: CC% - 39.7 3bet%- 6.7
SB vs BTN: CC% - 6.25 3bet%- 16.4

I’ve identified some hands that I’m routinely calling from BB vs BTN open, which probably should be better played as 3-bet bluffs. Those are hands like K4s-K2s, Q6s, J6s, T7s, 97s, 76s, 64s, 54s, 53s, 43s. So that’s a lot of bluff combos that don’t belong in cold-calling range. Improving this issue will be my main focus for the near future.

Also the same problem occurs in BB vs SB situation:

BB vs SB: CC% - 47.1 3bet% - 11.0

I’m obviously defending enough hands in this spot, maybe even too many. And the first adjustment I should make is again to move some hands from my CC range to my 3-betting range. As EV of 3-betting is almost always higher that EV of cold-calling, that should have a positive impact on my winrate in this spot.

Overall my winrate in the blinds is somewhat worse on PokerStars than on FullTilt. Here is a comparison:

Apart from field being softer on Full Tilt, my game from the blinds can definitely use some work. And my main problem is low 3-bet frequencies. So I’ll be working on those for the time being and that will also raise my overall 3-bet a bit, which is a good thing.

When the 1st episode of Red Line Rampage came out I immediately started improving my play in multi-way pots, so by the time this episode came out, this area of my game have already improved a lot. But nevertheless, there is still a lot of improvement to be made. I don’t usually donk in heads-up pots and my overall donk % is around 9, which can be around 15% mark, as was mentioned in the video. So let’s run the filters and see how the situation is.

Donking flop

Here is an obvious donking spot in my opinion:

We have a very strong draw in this spot and I feel that donking is a better play on the flop. We are not afraid of raises and also we can fold out some equity that our opponents might have, since we don’t have a made hand and would rather fold out some overcards that might hit on the turn.

Here is another hand that got me thinking:

To be honest, I’m not sure about this hand, since it’s a 3bet pot. In a regular pot I would donk here all day long with my gutter and a back door FD, but is it as good in a 4-way 3-bet pot? I think there are a lot of overpairs in our opponents’ ranges, so donk might not be the best play here. Still, if we want a donk bluffing range in this spot I feel like this is a perfect hand to go with.

Here I think I missed some value by not donking the flop:

First of all, I should say that we could definitely squeeze preflop with this hand. I don’t remember why I decided to just flat in this spot, but I must have had my reasons. Or it’s a slight mistake on my part. As for the flop play, I think people will often check through on this flop but call us with some draws, worst Ax, etc. So I think I should always donk the flop here and continue value-betting on most run outs.

Here is a spot where I think checking is better:

This is a very dry board and we have mediocre kicker, so I feel like checking on this flop should be better than donking. We aren’t afraid of giving free turn cards and we can allow our opponents to catch up and pay us off on later streets. So I think that this hand was played fine.

Now let’s take a look at c-betting spots multi-way.

I think I decided to check behind here because this flop has hit our opponents’ ranges pretty hard. But nevertheless, we have an open-ender here and a backdoor FD, so I feel that a cbet is a decent play in this spot. By checking back, we’re capping our range and our hand looks very weak compared to cbetting.

Here is another missed cbet:

We don’t have anything on the flop, but I feel like betting is still much better than checking. We won’t be able to call a turn lead on most cards, and there are a lot of overcards in our opponents’ ranges that we can fold out on the flop by betting.

This is a decent hand to cbet on this flop. We have some backdoors and we will be able to continue barreling on some turn cards that improve our equity. By checking back we are pretty much giving up and denying us the chance to win this pot.

Summary

Overall I still miss some spots for donking multi-way and also c-betting. The good thing is that most of missed opportunities I found were played on NL16, which I played about a month ago. So I hope that my play have improved somewhat in those spots. Still, I will continue working on my game in multi-way pots, because I feel like there is still a lot of room for improvement. Also I'm interested to see how this strategy work on higher limits (NL50), since the players are playing more aggressively in multi-way pots.

Here is my homework for the fifth episode. I will be using the last 60k hands from my database.

Let’s take a look at the first situation discussed in this episode, which is when we are in position and opponent check to us twice.

Here are two graphs for this situation:

Where I check behind the turn:

And where I decide to bet the turn:

So I decided to check in 167 hands and bet in 320 hands. I was quite surprised to see that I missed so many opportunities to take away the free money from weak ranges, and this is definitely one of the spots I will pay a lot of attention to in the future.

Let’s take a look at some hands and see where I missed profitable opportunities to bet.

I think I misplayed this hand completely, when opponent checks 3 times I seems that he has some kind of showdown value, namely Ahigh, and I doubt that he will fold this hand to a single bet on the river, so In this spot I think I definitely should have bet the turn and river to fold out a lot of his range. And also I could have considered betting the flop with my backdoor flush draw and two overs. Checking the flop seems weak to me, because for the most part we are just giving up.

This is a very similar hand. I’m also checking back twice and betting river, which seems pointless. I don’t mind checking back the flop, but after our opponent checks twice I feel like we have to bet twice to fold out some weak pairs and his share of the equity.

Another butchered hand on my part. First of all, my opponent in this hand folds 75% to Flop Cbet so far and it definitely can be a profitable cbet in this spot. Also, after he checks twice I see no point in giving up this hand. We should have bet turn and river to fold out a lot of his hands.

Now let’s take a look at the second situation discussed in this episode, which is when we are out of position and opponent check back the flop.

Here is the graph of spots where I checked again:

And here is the graph of spots where I decided to bet the turn:

I am pleased to see, that I don’t check often on the turn when my opponent checks back the flop. But there are still some situations where I miss a profitable opportunity to steal the pot from my opponent:

I see no reason to check the turn here, because out opponent showed weakness, we don’t have any showdown value and also we have some equity. So in this spot I think I should always bet twice after my opponent checks back the flop.

Here is another spot, where I should have bet the turn and river to fold out some draws and Ahighs that my opponent might have.

Overall I feel like I play a bit better in those spots and there aren’t a lot of situations where I miss an opportunity to bet. In most cases I have a reason to check the second time, but then again, maybe even in those spots betting is better.

Finally let’s take a look at the third situation discussed in this episode, which is when our opponent decides not to cbet out of position. I didn’t filter specifically for BB vs SB situation, but rather for any situation that meets this criteria.

First, let’s look at the graphs:

The one where I checked:

And the one where I bet:

Here are some hands which I think I misplayed:

In this spot even though we have some showdown value, it’s unlikely that our hand will be good on the river, so after SB checks to us I think it’s much better to bet and fold out opponent’s equity, also we will likely fold out some better hands until the river, such as 77-JJ. So I definitely missed a bet here and gave the pot to my opponent.

Here is another spot:

We have a total garbage on this board, and I doubt that our opponent would check this board with any value hand, so I think it’s better to bet the flop and fold out his equity and deny him opportunity to bluff us on later streets, because even if our 55 are the best hand we can’t continue with them against a bet.

Summary

I can’t say that my game is too bad in those spots, but I definitely should pay more attention, because I still miss some profitable spots to steal the pot from my opponents.

Raising flop is one of the main issues in my game, so this should be a very useful analysis. I think I can make some improvements to my red line if I work hard on this area.

First of all, let’s look at my flop raise vs cbet from all positions:

EP: 2.2 %
MP: 7.59%
CO: 7.77%
BTN: 4.83%
SB: 10 %
BB: 12.6%
Overall: 9.65

I certainly don’t raise enough cbets from the BTN and also this stat is a bit too low from the blinds, so those are the main areas I need to improve.

Let’s start by looking at BB vs SB situations. My fold to flop cbet in this spot is 39.4 and flop raise vs cbet is 12.6, which should be around 20%, so I clearly defend enough hands on the flop, but it seems like I’m calling with hands that are much better to raise with.

Here are some hands that I think should be raises rather than calls:

I don’t think that this is a bad call on the flop, but it feels like the raise would be better. He can maybe fold some better hands, like small pocket pairs and also we will be able to barrel decent amount of turns and rivers with our two overs and backdoor draws.

Here is another spot which should be a raise in my opinion. Bottom pairs are good candidates for bluff raising the flop, and also I don’t think that we will be able to call a lot of turns if we call the flop. So we are pretty much hoping that our opponent will shut down on the turn and we will be able to see the showdown. That’s why I think the much better play in this spot is to raise the flop and consider barreling some good turn cards.

On this flop we have a gutshot, which is another category of hands we should consider bluff raising flop with. It’s hard to float twice with a gutshot, so if we are not considering including some gutshots in our call flop, raise turn line, I suppose this would be a great spot to raise the flop and barrel the turn with some equity. I think I definitely missed a raise in this hand.

Now let’s look at example from the button when we cold call vs cut-off open. My fold vs flop cbet in this spot is 43.7%, so I might be folding some hands that I should consider defending, and my raise vs flop cbet is 8.40%, which is a bit low.

I don’t have a big problem with calling here, but I guess we can consider raising this hand. We have two overs and a gutter, and also it will be easier to fold out opponent’s Jx and some middle pocketpairs if we take this line.

Overall there are a lot of similar hands in this spots that I'm missing raises with.

Now let’s try to construct some x/raising ranges versus early positions. Let’s look at the UTG vs SB situation using the ranges that were introduced in 6-max walkthrough series.

UTG opening range: AA-55,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s
SB calling range: QQ-44,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs

For the purpose of this study I decided to generate a random flop in flopzilla and construct a x/r range for SB.
So the flop is 7♠:4♣:3♠:

First of all, even though UTG has some stronger overpairs in his range, given that SB’s range is stronger overall and narrower, this board greatly favors SB (58.3% vs 41.7%).

So what hands SB x/r for value on this board? I would say that the first hands that come to mind are sets, i.e. 77 and 44. We can also x/r some flush draws but I feel like those combos are neutral for bluff to value ratio calculation. We are x/raising 6 combos of strong value hands on this board and therefore we need about 12 combos of bluffs to balance this out. Maybe we can even have a bit less pure bluffs, given that we will have some flush draws in our range and that on certain runouts we won’t be able to value bet 3 streets with our sets. Overall I feel like it wouldn’t be hard to find some bluffs on this board, given that we have some backdoor flush draws. So my x/r range on this board for SB would look something like this:

Value x/r: 77(3), 44(3) – [6 combos]
Bluff x/r: AcKc, AcQc, AsKx(4), AsQx(4) – [10 combos]

I feel like 10 combos of bluffs are enough to balance out our value x/raises. We will be able to barrel decent amount of turns with this range and also we are blocking some combos of hands with which our opponent will continue playing (QQ-AA).

I generated some more flops and noticed that pretty much on every board on which we want to have a x/raising range we will x/raise for value with our sets and balance it out with some backdoor flush draws. Overall it makes sense, given that SB’s range is pretty narrow and he is mainly calling preflop with setmining in mind. The same goes for MP vs SB situation.

Hi to all! Me and my beautifull graph are on board!

(I included the rakeback line because the rake at iPoker is significally higher than Stars and I'm only winning there with the rakeback I have)

Since I had my first coaching, would cheat a bit and post my main problems discussed in the coaching: Cold-calling too less from the BB
Being too passive in situations where facing double-check when IP or check from PFR when OOP
Defending too tight BB vs SB
3betting too tight from all positions
Leading with the too low frequency in multi-way pots
Opening too tight from the BTN
Opening too tight from the SB
Folding too much to 3bets
Raising flops with the too low frequency

So, definitelly alot to improve.

I love the first video and can't wait for others!

Hello!

I will divide this homework into 2 parts: 3bets and Facing 3bets

3bets

Being too tight with 3bets is one of my biggest issues. I'm allready working on expanding 3bet ranges, but I can surely add at least 1-2% more, we will see in which positions. Here are my 3bet stats from all positions:

3bet stats position vs position:

3bet stats vs 1 raiser:

Differencies from the stats suggested in w34z3l's Walkthrough:

So, I can conclude that, in the sample size, my 3bet stats are pretty good overall, but can expand my 3bet range (probably bluff 3bet) in certain situations. In general, my problem is still being too tight on blinds vs late positions. BTN vs MP is a surprising, but can be that it's just a sample issue because I have 577 hands BTN vs MP 1 raiser. I run a filter BTN vs MP where I didn't 3bet and found that all of them were against shortstack and middlestack. I almost never bluff 3bet against shortstacks and middlestack, but after watching the video, I will start doing that and that could make my 3bet stats a bit higher. SB vs CO, SB vs BTN and BB vs BTN aren't a surprise for me because I know that I 3bet too tight in those situations. Let's look at the graph where I made a 3bet BB/SB vs CO/BTN with hands that are not TT+ and AQ+:

The conclusion is that I can add a few more bluffs, because bluffing those spots is extremly profitable for me. As long as I loose less than 75 bb/100, which I loose when fold on BB/SB, the bluff 3bet is profitable. Going through the database, I found alot of hands on blinds vs late positions which I could bluff 3bet and the real result is actually that I 3bet sufficient enough on all positions except:
SB vs CO
SB vs BTN
BB vs CO
BB vs BTN

I can probably add a couple of more 3bets from all positions, but above have to be fixed immediately. Here is the graph of all hands where I made a 3bet:

Facing 3bets

This is another spot where I'm too tight. Here is how I play when facing 3bets atm:

I'm folding too much to 3bets on all positions, especially on the SB and BTN. EP, MP and CO are somehow right, but that's because the open ranges from those positions are much tighter. So, I will focus now to the SB and BTN. Firstly, here is the graph where I openned on the SB and was faced a 3bet from the BB:

I'm folding in 72,7% of cases, which makes me highly exploitable. I open raise to 2,5BB on the SB. If BB makes a 3bet of 3x, he needs 65% of fold equity (6,5/(1,5+2+6,5)). If he makes it a little smaller, he needs even less. If I was my opponents, I would 3bet any hand BB vs SB against me. I found a couple of hands which I shouldn't fold to 3bet (according to charts from w34z3l's Walkthrough) and turns out that if I was flat or 4bet those, my Ft3Bet would be arround 60%

Now the graph where I openned on the BTN and was faced a 3bet from BB/SB:

I'm folding there in 76,3% of cases. My open size is 2,1BB. So, if opponent makes a 3bet even of 3,5x, he needs 64% (BB) and 66% (SB) of fold equity. Again, it's profitable to 3bet any hand against me when I open raise on the BTN. I also found a couple of hands which I shouldn't fold to 3bet (according to charts from w34z3l's Walkthrough). If I had flat or 4bet those, my Ft3bet would be arround 69%. Also, there are certainly some situations where I need to be wider than charts suggest. There are situations where I can 4bet exploitatively against players who fold to 4bets alot. If I open raise to 2,1BB and face a 3bet of 3X, in case my 4bet size is 2,2X of 3bet size, I need 56% of fold equity.

For the end, here is the graph of all hands where I made a 4bet:

So, I can surelly add a few more 4bets to improve my red line.

Hello!

It's cool to see my last year’s database in the video. So, will run some filters and see how much my game has changed in 2015.

VPIP/PFR

3bet IP

Squeeze

Showdown

4Bet

Flop Cbet

vs 3bets

UO PFR%

CC

Playing on the blinds

Conclusion

Here are the tables where I summed up all:

So, to make a general conclusion, I can say that I improved a lot in comparison with the database shown in video. Worth to mention that I can thank that mostly to w34z3l’s private coachings and his great videos at Pokerstrategy. There is still a lot of space to improve, which can be seen in the tables above, but at least I know what to improve and how to do that.

Hello!

My overall donk for this year is 8 because I donk sometimes if I see an exploitable situation to do that. In multiway pots, I donk only sets. However, I didn't find many situations this year when on the SB or BB in a multiway pot simply because I don't cold call as frequentlly as I should, mainly pocket pairs. Still, there are some hands that I called and might lead on the flop, but I didn't:

There are some situations I didn't cbet the flop because it was a multi-way pot and if it was HU pot, I probably would:

So, the main conclusion is that I should widen up my cold calling ranges, especially on the BB where I avoid to close the action in some profitable spots because I don't want to be out of position in a multi-way pot postflop. That's why I don't even get enough opportunities to use the information given in this episode. Now, with this new knowledge, I would try to be more brave preflop because I have a general idea of how to play multi-way pots without an initiative. Furthermore, I have to cbet more in multi-way pots and forget the assumtion that I don't have fold equity because some of the players must have hit something because it's a multi-way pot. Now I know that I will have enough fold equity because I look very strong when cbetting mwp and they will play straightforwardly.

Hello!

This year I've played 57.254 hands NL5, NL10, NL16, NL20 and NL25 and will use that database to make an analysis. When I filter my hands to situations where I was in position and checked back the Flop and Turn after an apponents had checked to me, I get 133 hands. The graph looks like this:

When I filter the hands to situations where I bet the Turn instead of checking, I get 119 hands, which tells me that I should exploit those double check situations a bit more than I currently do because it would be a profitable situation. The graph looks like this:

The graph where I've made 2 barrels looks like this:

I have 319 hands where I was out of position and checked the turn after the flop action was check. The graph looks like this:

The number of hands where I decided to bet the turn in those situations, instead of checking is 325. Again, the conclusion is that I could do that more. The graph looks like this:

The graph where I made a bet on the river also, looks like this:

The graph where I decided to check back on the BB when the SB didn't cbet looks like this:

The graph where I decided to bet in the same situations looks like this:

I'm not checking alot in those situations, which is very good. The graph for all hands where I decided to check back in position when the opponent skiped the flop cbet looks like this:

The graph where I decided to bet in the same situations looks like this:

Seems that I'm exploiting those situations often, but could do it a bit more and still be profitable.

Regarding multi-way pots, the graph where I decided to check the river when the flop and turn were checked arround looks like this:

In those situations, I'm decideing to bet very rarely and the graph looks like this:

So, another field to improve at.

Overall, my conclusion is that I am using above concepts in some extent, but not even close enough as I should. Since those are standard spots which guarantee the profit in the long run, I expect to improve my red line and overall winnings with incorporating all of the stuff shown in this video.

For the purpose of analysing how I play vs flop cbets, I took my hands between April 1th and May 30th. I've played 60k hands in that period with the winrate of 4,32 bb/100 (EV 2,63 bb/100). The value of Fold to Flop Cbet stat is 47,7%, which means that I'm currently folding too much to cbets. The value of Flop Raise vs Cbet stat is 9,38%, which means that I should raise flop cbets more. I faced flop continuation bet in 1.494 hands. I defended 781 hands (52,3%). I had to defend 115 hands more than I did (1.494*7,7%), from which 31 hands by flatting and 84 hands by raising. In terms of rations, I need to defend vs flop cbets in 14,72% of cases more. I need to flat 4,8% more and raise 60% more than I currently do. So, as we can see, the majority of hands I'm currently not defending but should need to be defended by raising. Here is the graph of hands where I was faced with flop cbet:

BB vs SB, I am defending 49,8% of range, which is great. When I called, was folding to flop cbets in 37,4% of cases, which is perfect. At the same time I was raising to flop cbets in 15,2% of cases, which means that some of the hands I called, should have raise instead. There are some hands in my database that I suspect to be decent candidates to raise instead of flatting:

When I'm cold calling BB/SB vs BTN, I'm folding to flop cbets in 45,5% of cases, which is slightly too much. In this situation I'm raising in 10,3% of cases, which is too less. I believe I should raise flop cbets twice as much as I currently do in those situations. So, I run filters where I check/folded to flop cbets and see which hands I could raise instead:

When I'm cold calling BB/SB vs EP, I'm folding to flop cbets in 53,9% of cases, which is too much. In this situation I'm raising in 6,58% of cases, which is too less. I believe I should raise flop cbets twice as much as I currently do. I believe I'm raising flop in those situations just for value with (nearly) the nuts. So, I run filters where I check/folded to flop cbets and see which hands I could raise or call instead:

So, the overall conclusion is that I'm folding too much to flop cbets. Actually, this is currently probably the biggest leak I have. I'm defending often enough when in position, but not aggressive enough, which means that I should raise some hands instead of flatting. When oop, I should defend much more than I currently do and slightly increase my flatting ranges, but dramatically increase my raising ranges.