it all depends on the fish. some fish will fold a lot to this squeeze even when we call which makes it a better 4bet, other fish will never fold.
having ak in our range here is pretty sexy too right? 
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Originally posted by GingerKid
Imo the only good argument for saying which line is better is to either prove it mathematically or experimentally (analysing database). Since both are nearly impossible, then we are left with "logical conlcusions", which bring us imo to interesting discussion but likely pointless.
Agree.
Since we cant decide which line is max EV, imo it makes most sense to do what pleno suggests, because the biggest winner among us has highest probability to have best solution for such problem.
Hugely disagree. Hawkings, Einstein, Newton, they all were wrong several times throughout their careers. The more unclear a spot is, the more likely it is that experts are entirely in the dark, too. This spot is very unclear, small skill gaps are not deceive enough to determine who's right.
I think that one big danger is "always" or "never".
If you know that the tendency of the player is to fold too much, you may want to keep him in a street or too longer.
If you know that the player calls 3Bets a lot, give him an opportunity to chuck more cash in.
If you don't know try it one way one time, another way another time.
I used to flat when my aces (or kings) were A♠:A♣:
I don't get a chance much any more, since I never see aces or kings any more ♠_cry:
All the best,
VS
Hugely disagree. Hawkings, Einstein, Newton, they all were wrong several times throughout their careers. The more unclear a spot is, the more likely it is that experts are entirely in the dark, too. This spot is very unclear, small skill gaps are not deceive enough to determine who's right.
I didnt say pleno will have high probability to be right in this spot, but he will have highest probability to play max EV among us that we discouss. Highest probability among us can still mean 0.01 only. Since he is likely winning most money among us who answered this thread, then it means that he makes "some" moves which are better than "some" our wrong moves, so there is a chance that he wins more money than others partially because playing higher EV in this spot. So if I am left with taking random move (no idea if 4bet or slowplay is better), then I will rather make a move that a winning player takes, even though he also doesnt know for sure if his move is max EV.
Similarly, I will rather beleive in what Newton says about laws on Earth than what some guy who knows less than Newton says about laws on Earth. (even if both of guys have low chance to be apsolutely correct) Still in this example I can say since both opinions are unlikely to be truth, I dont believe to anyone, and I just say I dont understand it. But in poker in this spot, we have to pick some move.
I totally get what you're saying, but that's just not how things work so long as the burden of proof is in play. pleno1 stated his opinion, he reasoned well, but he offered basically no facts. Therefore his arguments are not any more reliable than anyone elses, completely regardless of winrates.
It's almost impossible to state facts/math here without having full players stats.
Guys. This discussion is kinda funny (no offense to anyone!)
OP posted a general question and everybody tries to answer in general even if everybody has a typical "it depends" in mind.
The fact is that even if we dont have stats we probably would make our descision based on limit / pool based tendencies.
So if fishes tend to be agressive preflop as a squeezer on my limit / in my pool a flat obv gets more attractive and so on....
So bottom line for me is: i dont think we can answer this in general since this is a typical spot which descision is always made with the minimum of limit / pool based tendencies in mind.
I'm not sure anymore that we're discussing the same scenario. This is what I thought we were talking about in the last dozen or so posts:
Originally posted by double2
Other example, Hero opens BU AKo, fish flats SB, Reg squeezes BB, I don't like to flat here ("to bring on the fish"), we have a clearly +EV 4bet with AKo, I'm not sure we want to play a mwp here, even IP.
Just making sure we're not talking at cross-purposes.
I actually thought we are talking in general about preflop slowplays Still, the example with AKo shouldnt differ a lot, if we dont have specific info.
Originally posted by TickTack24
Guys. This discussion is kinda funny (no offense to anyone!)
OP posted a general question and everybody tries to answer in general even if everybody has a typical "it depends" in mind.
The fact is that even if we dont have stats we probably would make our descision based on limit / pool based tendencies.
So if fishes tend to be agressive preflop as a squeezer on my limit / in my pool a flat obv gets more attractive and so on....
So bottom line for me is: i dont think we can answer this in general since this is a typical spot which descision is always made with the minimum of limit / pool based tendencies in mind.
You mean something like, if average fish at the limit where hero plays folds a lot vs 3bet vs iso raise, but will call vs iso raise and spew/call light postflop, then we slowplay? Yeah, I agree on this, we just need to filter our database, how much is fish completing vs 3bets after iso raise is done, and make decision using that info. It cant off course never be completely accurate, but in average it should imo increase our EV, especially if we see some extreme fish stats, like folding vs such 3bet 80%, or folding 10%.