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NL 25 zoom, 2 pair on flop

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awesomeo
Joined: 09.11.2009

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $38.74 (155 bb)
Hero (BB): $27.85 (111.4 bb)
UTG: $25.97 (103.9 bb)
MP: $32.29 (129.2 bb)
CO: $186.54 (746.2 bb)
BTN: $25.35 (101.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q 3
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.50, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.10) Q 2 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.69, Hero raises to $3.12, BTN calls $2.43

Turn: ($7.34) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

River: ($14.34) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $9, Hero...

Villain is kind of nitty:
19/15
57 BTN steal
80 cbet flop
0/6 fold to raise on the flop
56 W$WSF
aggression frequency declines from flop to river

Should I fold here? If I fold that hand do I x/call any non flush hand at all?


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6 replies
EthereaL
Joined: 04.10.2008

Hey,

I don't think Q3o is included in any healthy BB defending range.
As played, I'm leaning towards fold OTR, BU really represents it well.


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Hi awesome

Preflop: why are you defending Q3o here? With what plan exactly? This should be a fold even for 1bb imo.

Postflop: Keep betting turn yourself. villains range is not just draws or hands that get scared about the draw. So bet yourself.

As played you can act on your reads here so you can make an exploitative fold.


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awesomeo
Joined: 09.11.2009

My preflop plan is to realize some equity and try lo lose less than 100bb/100. My hand has 39% vs 57 open. How much more do you think is reasonable to defend a hand here?


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webhunky
Joined: 31.03.2010

I don't think percents always matter. Some hands are just awful to play postflop, especially offsuit and OOP.

A♦:5♠: has 55% against K♥:Q♥:, but I'd much rather have the second one postflop :f_grin:

By the way, you probably do this quite often. Can you filter these hands, when defended on the BB, and write if you lost less than 100bb/100? I'm simply curious myself, is it working.


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awesomeo
Joined: 09.11.2009

You prefer KhQh to A5o for, say opening UTG, but you open them both on BTN and you probably defend them both BB vs BTN, right? Vs wide ranges they would both be +EV.

My sample for this is small so not too relevant yet probably.

I filtered BTN vs BB with Q2o to Q7o
only 193 hands, vs all open sizes, -80bb/100
vs 2bb open size it is 123 hands, -160/100
Q3o in particular is 300/100 looser with that hand that I called and lost.
some others are winners because I flopped 2 pair/trips with them.

I think sample size is too small to make conclusions but seing how I flop TP no kicker and x/call 3 streets on board with busted draws makes me think they are close to 0 EV in the long run if played good. Will have to burn some $ to find out I guess :)


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

Sample size for particular hands and positions will like always be too small. Even if you have really many hands, still it is not worth to look at those filters because your strategy changes constantly, also opponents, so you cant conclude anything out of it, unless it is an extreme value, like it shows you loose a tone of money which would be indicatior that you do something very wrong with it (it is very unprofitable)


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