Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

NL50z SH 99 turn implied odds?

8 Posts
4 Users
0 Reactions
720 Views
wolv3rine
Joined: 06.03.2008

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $48.25 (96.5 bb)
BB: $73.96 (147.9 bb)
Hero (UTG): $51.61 (103.2 bb)
MP: $122.48 (245 bb)
CO: $79.36 (158.7 bb)
BTN: $98.43 (196.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 9
Hero raises to $1.50, MP folds, CO calls $1.50, BTN folds, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($6) 9 5 4 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3.92, 2 folds, BB calls $3.92

Turn: ($13.84) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10.62, BB calls $10.62

River: ($35.08) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $36, Hero calls $35.57 and is all-in

Results:$106.22 pot ($2.50 rake)
Final Board: 9 5 4 Q 2
BB showed 3 6 and won $103.72 ($52.11 net)
Hero showed 9 9 and lost (-$51.61 net)

My question: Is it a good call for the opponent's side?

I think I fold, because I haven't got enough implied odds. If every time can stack off if he hits, than he can win 13.84+46.62=60.46 and he must call 10.62 so he get 17.5% odds+ there is the rake + 2♥: or 7♥: reverse the odds.


Reply
Quote
7 replies

Hi wolv3rine

His preflop call is somewhat questionable as that hand rarely gets anything strong.

As far as the turn call he is going purely for implied odds because he will clearly get most of your stack if he hits. His draw is hidden really well so you can't blame him for that given his prefloop call :)


Reply
Quote
wolv3rine
Joined: 06.03.2008

I blame him for the turn call, because he ch/C out of implied odds +(reverse implied odds), although during the game certainly isn't easy to calculate that (and ch/C quickly).


Reply
Quote
Anomic
Joined: 15.01.2012

How often do you cbet the flop 4way with a backdoor heart draw? How often do you even bet it with TT+ and barrel turn? Your range looks so strong on the turn that his calls can't be that bad. If he calls that hand pre he pretty much has to continue on this board or calling pre wouldn't make sense.


Reply
Quote
wolv3rine
Joined: 06.03.2008

I love cbet this board 8♥:7♥:, 7♥:6♥:, A♥:3♥:, A♥:2♥:, A♥:9♥: (If the table let me open than I Open UTG these cards, not all the time!!) +sometimes I cbet J♥:T♥:, K♥:T♥:, K♥:J♥: if villains folds to much on flop/turn. You can not exlude all BDFD of my range.

But OK, I never cbet BDFD. Than he get 17,5% implied odds and every time can stack off on the river and I never fold (so my range on turn is 100% value - I think it's a joke). He have just 8 outs and 16% odds (which is not 17,5) + the rake is huge amount, So he cant win 60$ if he call (just 55$). I think turn is a fold. I would fold OESD. If I hold 8♥:7♥: cards, than it is much more difficult.


Reply
Quote
Anomic
Joined: 15.01.2012

Do you cbet this wide 4way though? This means you bet all backdoor :spade: s & :diamond: s too which seems like a lot if it's not heads-up.


Reply
Quote
wolv3rine
Joined: 06.03.2008

Why, I must just ch/F GS+BDFD? Or ch/C why? I'm the PFA, have FE and EQ with good BDs. This is a STD cbet for me, unless very station villains. I think that BB need reduce his outs (so maybe 7outs - 14% odds) and this turn he must fold that hand, because every time if he will call, will loose xx BB. I think it's not a +EV ch/C turn. Maybe a good hand to ch/R Bluff.


Reply
Quote
metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

imo I think its slightly -EV OOP even without BDFD, as his only option is to donk river which may get you to fold TT+ as it looks like set. BDFD quite bad for him if you have these since as well as reducing outs they also reduce implieds since you have to fold if he hits non heart river. But as Anomic said it does seem quite loose to bet bdfd + gutshot 4 way. 4 way pots require a lot of adjustment in hand strength required and I dont see bdfd+gutter being a +EV cbet unless they all fold a lot.

I think x/r turn is awful line personally, why do you think he should do it? Either he have to jam 4.6x your bet or he have to raise smaller than that while leaving super awkward stack size on river where he almost always have 6 high.


Reply
Quote