[Closed] The odds of making 'Four of a kind' in Hold'Em?

good old variance, although 4 in 5 hands is a bit outrageous.

I don't really know the odds but I believe it's something like 1 in every 3000 hands?

Originally posted by clicks
I've only been playing for a some months, and I haven't seen that many. I just started playing Limit at Party Poker yesterday after studying the Fixed Limit Basic/Bronze articles. I've been playing 0.05/0.10. I've played about 3 hours in total and I saw 2 Four of kinds yesterday (in 2 hours) and 4 today (in 1 hour, 2 of them happened literally in the space of 5 hands and within my first 5 hands).

I'm not quite sure what I'm asking here... Is this normal?

Anything can happens in poker,I for example got 4 four of a kinds one day and 2 of them in 30mins.

If you play every pocket pair to showdown, the chances increase dramatically ♦

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($10.35)
CO JotAhWeh ($25.35)
BTN pool4u ($19.80)
SB Blackbird90 ($29.55)
BB allstarp ($43.40)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is UTG J♠ J♥
Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, allstarp raises to $0.95, Hero calls $0.65

Flop: J♦ J♣ 4♥ ($1.95, 2 players)
allstarp bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: 3♣ ($4.35, 2 players)
allstarp checks, Hero bets $1, allstarp calls $1

River: 5♦ ($6.35, 2 players)
allstarp checks, Hero bets $3, allstarp calls $3

Final Pot: $12.35
allstarp shows: 9♦ 9♣
Hero shows: J♠ J♥

Hero wins $11.35 ( won +$5.20 )
allstarp lost -$6.15

No big deal then, I hope I don't see another Four of kind for another 18000 hands unless it is me holding it. If I do see anymore in the next few hours of play I should be right to be suspicious, no?

4 of them were made with pocket pairs, except this one against my Full House, I suppose it's inevitable when 9 people go to the flop, lol:

0.05/0.1 Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG pitsteelerr ($1.00)
UTG+1 Nicoz999 ($2.98)
MP1 Flowsbh ($2.14)
MP2 Hero ($2.50)
MP3 zow1974 ($3.51)
CO nikitared ($4.16)
BTN Petrovih999 ($4.44)
SB rowdyscenes ($0.68)
BB dsv779 ($2.50)
[pitsteelerr posted 0.05]
[Flowsbh posted 0.05]
[Hero posted 0.05]

Pre-flop: (4.4 SB, 9 players) Hero is MP2 6♣ 6♠
pitsteelerr checks, Nicoz999 calls, Flowsbh checks, Hero checks, zow1974 calls, nikitared calls, Petrovih999 calls, rowdyscenes calls, dsv779 checks

Flop: 3♣ 3♦ 5♣ (9.0 SB, 9 players)
rowdyscenes bets, 3 folds, Flowsbh calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, nikitared calls, 1 fold

Turn: 6♥ (6.5 BB, 4 players)
rowdyscenes bets, Flowsbh calls, Hero raises, nikitared calls, rowdyscenes calls, Flowsbh folds

River: 3♠ (13.5 BB, 3 players)
rowdyscenes bets, Hero raises, nikitared calls, rowdyscenes 3-bets, Hero 4-bets, nikitared folds, rowdyscenes 5-bets

Final Pot: 23.3 BB
rowdyscenes shows: 3♥ 9♠
Hero shows: 6♣ 6♠

rowdyscenes wins 20.8 BB ( won +14.0 BB )
Hero wins 0.2 BB ( lost --6.8 BB )

Guess what? Yet another Four of a kind! I have only played an additional 1 hour since my last post. Is this room for real? I'm recording my next session.

When you play a lot and have huge hand database then there are plenty of 4oak hands :-)

I can understand it with a huge hand database, but I've only played for 4 hours there. They shouldn't be happening every 90 hands.

four of a kind is nothing when you're holding 5aces!!
http://wtfpokerstars.ytmnd.com/

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Yesterday I was playing a tournament and called an all in with my QQ, he had pushed with 66 and I was feeling good. Then the flop came 66x. Couldn't believe it. Not the first time I've had quads flopped against me either.

On Party Poker?

Seeing 66 allin would be standard to me (I'd never be the one allin with it tho), the 66 on the flop would come as a shock, but what if you saw the same thing 7 times in the next 4 hours of play? Call me paranoid, but 7 FOAKs in only 4 hours of play is a bit suspicious, and the guy who called allin with 105o in the SNG I played tops it off. In the 4 hours of Limit I've player there have always been short stacks who buy-in for like $0.86 who sit there there for ages not playing a hand and then they stumble upon 93o and decide to play, making a miraculous hand, and they all seem to be from Russia, do they know something I don't, lol? No, I'm serious here, something seems wrong.

Im not guaranteeing this number, but I believe the odds of getting four of a kind if you flip over 7 cards from a deck is 0.17%.

Odds of getting quads if you hold something like AQ is 0.1%.
Odds of getting quads if you hold pocket pairs is 1.1%

Originally posted by clicks
On Party Poker?

Nah it was on Titan, $5 10 man SnG.

WTF

Quads happen all the time... Saw one sucker who pushed all in against me with 77 preflop in a cash game, I had KK and called, I never fold KK in fear of aces because some people push any pocket. Flop of course comes 77x.

Yesterday I went all-in preflop with AA to lose it to 6666 and dropped out of a tournament, such things happen all the time :). On the other hand I've been winning all-in preflop hands like ATo against two callers - AQs and JJ. You sometimes suck out too :).

Yeah, about a week ago I was playing a couple of full tables and saw 3 or 4 four of a kinds. I would have hit one of them, but I folded my pocket 3's to a large pre-flop raise.

I have also folded A-rag a couple of times to have 3 aces hit the flop. It only seems to happen with aces, though. Either that or I am not paying any attention to the flop if i've got anything but an A in my hand.

I do remember one time seeing one guy with 3333, but was beat by 9999.

Crazy stuff!!!

Another guy had a full house, too. He hit a set of K's or something.

They were all all-in pre-flop. The guy with the K's ended up getting crushed.

I was thinking about all of these crazy 'what are the chances' situations. There are a lot of them! So, chances are you will run into a few every once in a while.

That's why I like poker so much though.

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