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A7s - $5 90 men Pogressive KO

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rgs78
Joined: 19.07.2009

I have about 33% pot odds and, if the BU shoves about 12% of hands (22+, A7s+, KQs, QJs, ATo+), the call is close.
Do you agree?

PokerStars - $2.30+$2.30+$0.40|150/300 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 2,833 (VPIP: 20.41, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 98)
SB: 1,620 (VPIP: 14.58, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 48)
BB: 3,377 (VPIP: 9.68, PFR: 6.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
UTG: 2,941 (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
UTG+1: 3,108 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
MP: 8,496 (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP+1: 3,791 (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
Hero (MP+2): 5,245
CO: 2,918 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 14)

9 players post ante of 25, SB posts SB 150, BB posts BB 300

Pre Flop: (pot: 675) Hero has 7♣ A♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 600, fold, BTN raises to 2,808 and is all-in, fold, fold, Hero calls 2,208

Flop: (6,291, 2 players) 2♥ 8♦ 5♠

Turn: (6,291, 2 players) 8♣

River: (6,291, 2 players) 6♥

Spoiler

Hero shows 7♣ A♣ (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 32%, Flop 18%, Turn 7%)
BTN shows J♦ J♣ (Two Pair, Jacks and Eights)
(Pre 68%, Flop 82%, Turn 93%)
BTN wins 6,291


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4 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

It’s a close spot, but if you think BTN will shove 22+, A7s+, KQs, QJs, ATo+ it will be a profitable call. You need to call 2.208 to win a total pot of 6.291. So you need 35% equity here and you have 36,8% equity:
Equity Win Draw
MP2 36.80% 34.13% 2.67% { Ac7c }
BU 63.20% 60.53% 2.67% { 22+, A7s+, KQs, QJs, ATo+ }

Now I discount the bounty equity in a spot like this, but that makes the call even more profitable for you.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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rgs78
Joined: 19.07.2009

Thanks, SDK1987!

The real question here is whether the BU shoves that range. What do you think based on the 98 hands available?


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Difficult to said, but he should know he has no fold equity against you. I would fold most likely some low pocket pairs and the situation looks like this:
Equity Win Draw
MP2 33.92% 32.12% 1.80% { Ac7c }
BU 66.08% 64.29% 1.80% { 55+, A8s+, KQs, AJo+ }

Even than with the bounty on his head you can make a slightly –Cev call and his stats didn’t look so tight. So I can’t fold A7s against him.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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rgs78
Joined: 19.07.2009
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