Aqs on the bubble short ep vs big stack

You should know the answer to this question before you play.
Its very possible by click sit out you make a box of beer from a free ticket.
This is your decision to make.
How did the rest go?

I would stack off with AQs in a normal MTT like this around the bubble. Also you need to go to the blinds now. So you can’t be sure you can fold ITM if you only play for a min-cash with 3bb left.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Originally posted by GoOnCal1
You should know the answer to this question before you play.
Its very possible by click sit out you make a box of beer from a free ticket.
This is your decision to make.
How did the rest go?

Well I know what u mean, and I actually know before I play. I don't play for beer, but to grow my br.
My question isn't about the 16€, but it's about EV.
Is here better 100% fold and 90/95% cash or dobble up here can help to get first 3 spots and is worth the 30% risk of busting?
I think in this case is better the push bc it's turbo and avrg is just dobble my stack.
But I don't think it's always a push here..
What do u think?
I busted 24th Ajs vs Ako cash 20€.
Thank you for the reply

Originally posted by SDK1987
I would stack off with AQs in a normal MTT like this around the bubble. Also you need to go to the blinds now. So you can’t be sure you can fold ITM if you only play for a min-cash with 3bb left.

Cheers,
SDK1987

It's a fast mtt and the bubble it's always very fast, I don't think I would have had problems to fold itm (I think bubble busted 1/2hand after).
If the bb here wasn't so big I wouldn't have any dubts about pushing (if bb has 8/9bb he can't really call here but 3/4% range).
This guy would call 60/70% here (some oppo even 90%) so I wasn't sure the math was right?!
95% +16€ or 65% dobble up and 35% busted?
Thank you againg for you reply

What I remember from Collin Moshman videos is that in turbo tourneys, players with super low stacks, as is the case here, are expected to push super wide from EP because they will otherwise blind out. Having that in mind pushing here with AQo is a no brainer to me. This spot is great if your goal is reaching the final table, rather than mincashing. What i am getting at is that it is likely that a large stack calls you with a lesser hand and that you will be in a position to double up. I think your play is corect here

Originally posted by PokerPPP
This spot is great if your goal is reaching the final table, rather than mincashing.

Yeah, this is the question I was making, is this spot good to risk a 30% of busting.
I think it depends from avrg stack here.
I mean if I was in the same situation but the dobble up here would only move me from 42place to 40 probably wouldn't be worth and a fold would be better.
In this case I would get a mid stack that could help me to get to ft so I think as well it's the right move.
Thanks for your opinion!

fold = Eu16
shove = (0.3 x 0) + (0.7 xEU20) = Eu14
Based on you own assessment of 30% equity and assuming your final payout will always be 20

Originally posted by GoOnCal1
fold = Eu16
shove = (0.3 x 0) + (0.7 xEU20) = Eu14
Based on you own assessment of 30% equity and assuming your final payout will always be 20 squid (wot'appened)

Yeah, but the point is to understand what's the ev of a dubble stack compare to the risk of busting. As you said "always 20€ wont happen" so the 14€ don't make sense, the real value of the shove isn't 14.
I don't know whats the right number here, but it's for sure much bigger the 16€ so imo it's a clear shove!
Thanks

post should have read final result ("what actually happened") , when you make the decision, you don't have this information. Because you didn't bust and finished with 20 Eu, you can calculate your realized equity. If you knew you would win 20 you should fold.

Does that make sense?
Also just my opinion, I think its important to try to cash in any freerolls

Originally posted by GoOnCal1
post should have read final result ("what actually happened") , when you make the decision, you don't have this information. Because you didn't bust and finished with 20 Eu, you can calculate your realized equity. If you knew you would win 20 you should fold.

Does that make sense?
Also just my opinion, I think its important to try to cash in any freerolls

So if I dind't bust for 20€ and I win the mtt my ev for Aqs is 250€???
It doesnt matter what happend this time, it doesn't matter I won the hand, etc..
What matters for me here is what make me the most € if I repeat the move over and over.
About cashing an high % in freeroll, I don't think that should be the strategy to follow, especially in freerolls (because freerolls mostly pay very little until top 3).
But anyways this wasn't a freeroll, it was a 10€ buy in.

Originally posted by GoOnCal1
whatever dude, u said u won a ticket

over and over u make 0.7 what u expect to win. I just gave you an answer because you asked a question. The answer I gave is correct.

I wont bother give you an answer why cash in free roll is a good strategy, because you don't appreciate any answer.

I told u those stuff to be nice (and because u asked:"does it make sense?" in the end of the post), not to insult ur thinking process.
It's pretty basic theory and kind of obv, but I'm not here to argue, so if you think urs it's the correct answer for me it's fine.
gl
Btw If u win a ticket for a mtt that doesn't make it a freeroll

As I told u I'm not here to argue, so this would be my last post.

The fault is that u calculate the Ev on the winning I made(20€). I know u said IF, but the sentence itself doen't make sense bc that's not what is happening over and over and bc thats not what is always happening it doesn't make sense to calcolate the Ev on 20€ or 0€, 70%=20€ and 30%=0€.
Just because the 20€ isn't what u will always get!
(obv I'm speaking of Ev of the move with AQs, so how much is worth the fold and the push)

For the ticket, we definitly disagree on the definition!
First if you pay to get in a sat and then u win the ticket, that ticket isn't free but u paid the buy in of the satelite! (in my case I paid 2€ to get the ticket of 10€)
Second following ur logic if I get a ticket for the main even 10k the main event would became a freeroll???

I understand what u mean with "freeroll", that u play for "free". But for me a freeroll is a free tournament for everyone (witch would change the dinamic of the players). In the other case (when u have the ticket) you could maybe say that u r freerolling but the MTT is not a freeroll.

I don't knw what u mean with this:
"If you are consistently playing 2 tier you invest a lot of time not to collect in the second step"

Anyway, good luck at the tables!
Ciao