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KQs in trouble at river

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pepevesterinen
Joined: 11.06.2014

Prima, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $15.68 (156.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $18.87 (188.7 bb)
UTG: $6.63 (66.3 bb)
MP: $9.75 (97.5 bb)
CO: $10.30 (103 bb)
BTN: $12.31 (123.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q K
UTG raises to $0.20, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.20, SB folds, Hero calls $0.10

UTG 30/15 fold to 3 bet 50%, BU 35/10, I considered 3 betting but neiter player wasn't folding much so I decided just to call

Flop: ($0.65) 6 Q J (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.35, UTG calls $1.05, BTN calls $1.05

UTG cbet 55%, BU fold to cbet 38%, mostly raises TPs. I was ahead of BUs range, wasn't so sure about UTG. I thought I'll raise for value against BU and if UTG reraises I'm beat and must fold.

UTGs call range perhaps Q with weak kicker, Jx, AK, AT, A6s, T9s, KTs
BU Jx, 6x, T9, 98, KT, AT...

Turn: ($4.70) 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $2.65, UTG folds, BTN calls $2.65

Turn didn't changed much, what do you think about bet sizing?

River: ($10) T (2 players)

Ten wasn't too good card for me, it gave villain some two pairs and 89 got straight. Mostly I'm still ahead but if I bet third time villain propably only pay when I'm beat.

Hero checks, BTN bets $8.11, Hero folds

Villain thought for some time, then went AI. Most of his range had some showdown value and I think he would mostly check back those. I'm not sure though and my check could have induced some random bluffs. Because of the size of the bet and the fact that flop wasn't overly drawy I ended up folding anyway. Too weak? What range you think villain would bet river?

Results:

Spoiler

$10 pot ($0.50 rake)
Final Board: 6 Q J 7 T
Hero mucked Q K and lost (-$4.20 net)
BTN mucked and won $9.50 ($5.30 net)


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8 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Nice fold.


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You are putting yourself into a very tough spot by raising esp vs 2 fish, who might overestimate their TP and jam or jam w a draw.

Leading F would be the easiest play imo


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

check call the flop, you are overplaying your hand really - The UTG's PFR is fairly tight so he will not have enough QT and worse to justify this
lead is a decent option with their gaps in VPIP


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pepevesterinen
Joined: 11.06.2014

Originally posted by ZeDawning
You are putting yourself into a very tough spot by raising esp vs 2 fish, who might overestimate their TP and jam or jam w a draw.

Leading F would be the easiest play imo

Good point. Big donk bet would perhaps been better option.


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pepevesterinen
Joined: 11.06.2014

Originally posted by LemOn36
check call the flop, you are overplaying your hand really - The UTG's PFR is fairly tight so he will not have enough QT and worse to justify this
lead is a decent option with their gaps in VPIP

UTG is only 66BB deep and he was not positionally aware at all, so his range was about the same 15%, no matter what position. Should have mentioned it. I think he isn't folding AJ, KJ, KTs, JTs, T9s (31 combinations) on the flop, he might even call some percentage with AK or AT so his flop calling range isn't overly tight, if my estimation is reasonable at all.

I wasn't raising flop just for value, I thought they have a lot of outs for two pairs, Ax etc and there's a decent change that I'm ahead now but my hand is very vulnerable against two players combined. I was hoping to get hand HU or even win it right there, didn't worked this time :)

Granted UTG can have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 66, AQ, QJ (30 combinations) but he also have worse hands he could call. And I don't mind opening betting again, if he rereraises I can quite confidently fold.

I think hand was easier for me to play reraised. Perhaps big donk bet would have been better anyway. Thanks for your input :)


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I think leading the flop is better than check/calling, but check/calling is better than check/raising. I belive that TPGK would generally be too weak for value check/raising, especially in a multi-way pot. As played, I think giving up the river is fine.


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excitedpoker
Joined: 12.08.2010

Our hand is too good to turn it into a bluff postflop, nothing worse will continue and i doubt that better will fold.


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bonecore
Joined: 02.11.2009

on flop, putting a range on equilab gives you 52% vs 2 players

if you are IP its ok to raise flop because you gain initiative and check on later street to not overplay your hand

by raising OP you get into ugly situations (i would check raise OP if i were bluffing or with a set)


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