PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 109 BB (VPIP: 37.93, PFR: 31.03, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 31)
BB: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
Hero (UTG): 96.6 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 101.8 BB (VPIP: 22.58, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♠ J♣
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) T♦ 4♣ 8♣
BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, BTN raises to 19 BB, fold
I don't have any reads on this player, but the 31 hands of stats I have on this villain does not show crazy stats like 90 vpip, so I just assumed he was a normal NL5 player. When he cold-called my open raise I put him on a lot of (maybe all) pocket pairs, AQ, AJ, AT, and some suited Aces and some suited connectors. I also thought that since this is NL5 he had a decent number of "pretty hands" like KQs, KJs, JTs and some "favourite hands" like 85 of spades. On the flop I continue and he raised 3.5x. I thought he would do this with 44, 88, T8, club draws with a ten ie. AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, and Ace-high club draws. Also, since I don't have a read on this person, I assume a percentage of people will do this with just a ten and a weak flush draw and perhaps even 97 or QJ. I'm not sure how likely this is because I'm quite new to no limit. I don't like calling because any non jack turn is not really a good card for me and he is likely to bet again. However, he might check back the turn with certain scare cards. Folding seemed very weak because I thought it was so much more likely for him to have pair plus monster draw than 44, 88, TT. I thought TT was especially unlikely. Also, JJ,QQ,KK,AA, although not impossible was quite unlikely also imo. I put all of the above pair-plus-monster draws vs my hand in equilab and I have about 50% equity vs all those hands. So I came to the conclusion that jamming was the best option. So my question is whether villain has enough of the really crappy hands that I have a lot of equity against to counteract my 16% vs sets, and 35% vs T8 for me to justify a jam. (I have 78% equity vs a random AT)
Thank you very much for any advice! I am pretty new to no limit, but I have about 100k hands of no limit in my lifetime. However those hands come in different chunks of my life and different stakes. I played 17k hands of NL10 and felt I was getting into way too many tricky spots so I just moved down to NL5 to build up my confidence playing no limit. I've been a member of pokerstrategy since 2009, but I was away from poker for a while and have just recently started to take it seriously again. I used to play only limit, then only plo, then just random MTTs and live cash game for a couple years, and now I've finally jumped onto the no limit wagon.