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JJ - Continuation bet raised on flop

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Jeero
Joined: 23.04.2009

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 109 BB (VPIP: 37.93, PFR: 31.03, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 31)
BB: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
Hero (UTG): 96.6 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 101.8 BB (VPIP: 22.58, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♠ J♣

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) T♦ 4♣ 8♣
BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, BTN raises to 19 BB, fold

I don't have any reads on this player, but the 31 hands of stats I have on this villain does not show crazy stats like 90 vpip, so I just assumed he was a normal NL5 player. When he cold-called my open raise I put him on a lot of (maybe all) pocket pairs, AQ, AJ, AT, and some suited Aces and some suited connectors. I also thought that since this is NL5 he had a decent number of "pretty hands" like KQs, KJs, JTs and some "favourite hands" like 85 of spades. On the flop I continue and he raised 3.5x. I thought he would do this with 44, 88, T8, club draws with a ten ie. AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, and Ace-high club draws. Also, since I don't have a read on this person, I assume a percentage of people will do this with just a ten and a weak flush draw and perhaps even 97 or QJ. I'm not sure how likely this is because I'm quite new to no limit. I don't like calling because any non jack turn is not really a good card for me and he is likely to bet again. However, he might check back the turn with certain scare cards. Folding seemed very weak because I thought it was so much more likely for him to have pair plus monster draw than 44, 88, TT. I thought TT was especially unlikely. Also, JJ,QQ,KK,AA, although not impossible was quite unlikely also imo. I put all of the above pair-plus-monster draws vs my hand in equilab and I have about 50% equity vs all those hands. So I came to the conclusion that jamming was the best option. So my question is whether villain has enough of the really crappy hands that I have a lot of equity against to counteract my 16% vs sets, and 35% vs T8 for me to justify a jam. (I have 78% equity vs a random AT)

Thank you very much for any advice! I am pretty new to no limit, but I have about 100k hands of no limit in my lifetime. However those hands come in different chunks of my life and different stakes. I played 17k hands of NL10 and felt I was getting into way too many tricky spots so I just moved down to NL5 to build up my confidence playing no limit. I've been a member of pokerstrategy since 2009, but I was away from poker for a while and have just recently started to take it seriously again. I used to play only limit, then only plo, then just random MTTs and live cash game for a couple years, and now I've finally jumped onto the no limit wagon.


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4 replies
VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

The guy seems rather passive plus he is raising vs. 2, not knowing how BB will act. So, here I would rather put him on a strong made hand, nut FD or some combo draw. In which case he is crashing us.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Td8c4c
Equity Win Tie
CO 35.29% 35.29% 0.00% { JsJc }
BU 64.71% 64.71% 0.00% { TT, 88, 44, AdAc, ATs, AcQc, Ac9c, 9c7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c }

Despite I think, he will flat most of his draws.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Raising mw is strong, especially with another player still to act. Even if we are vs pair+fd villain has so much equity that folding seems reasonable.


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Jeero
Joined: 23.04.2009

Would I still fold QQ-AA as well? Also, how much should I assume a bad ten is a part of his range? A random AT for example? It seems quite unlikely but I have seen villains play top pair top kicker aggressively on draw heavy boards. I would not feel too bad about folding JJ, but folding QQ-AA would seem weak to me.


Board: T♦8♣4♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     27.85%  27.83%   0.02% { QQ }
BU     72.15%  72.13%   0.02% { 88, 44, AdAc, AcQc, Ac9c, 9c7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c }


Board: T♦8♣4♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     28.03%  28.03%   0.00% { KK }
BU     71.97%  71.97%   0.00% { 88, 44, AdAc, AcQc, Ac9c, 9c7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c }


Board: T♦8♣4♣
Equity Win Tie
CO 32.75% 28.77% 3.98% { AhAs }
BU 67.25% 63.27% 3.98% { 88, 44, AdAc, AcQc, Ac9c, 9c7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c }


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

Hey Jeero, The Beginner Strategy course recommends you bet fold your made hands, including overpairs at NL2-NL5 as default - and when you don't have much experience you can simply follow it and fold and get to another spot.

In this particular spot it's multiway with a player left to act, so
A) Villain should (rightly) assume your range is stronger and
B) Has a player left to act behind him that can have strong hands
Both removing an incentive for him to bluff and semi-bluff

At high stakes you will even see a lot of players outright checking the flop here with the JJ-AA with the club against two good regulars or aggressives as the board hits calling ranges well, they can't get it in profitably against a raise and the club backdoor means there's less turns to protect against (and they check fold a lot so they want to have strong hands in their checks)

It's suggested you continuation bet as default a lot as part of the beginner strategy, as it makes the hand easier to play and people will both call too much and let you know when you're beat at microstakes by raising, so betting the flop to fold is the best play, with JJ-AA at NL5, and I like your analysis - often times people raise just made hands, It's true sometimes you fold against AT And you often have direct odds to call on one street. But you will be out of position on the turn in a difficult spot, behind in equity on pretty much any card besides a J. The Jc even removes AcJc and 9cJc, so it's probably the worst overpair to continue with against the raise anyways.


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