unexploitable defending after cbet

Hi gingerkid!

Mathew Janda in his book suggests the following formula to estimate opponent's Ev with his worse hands (I think we discussed about it in another thread):

Flop check freq*(Potsize*check fold % - Flop bet*%check/defend).

And we have to consider that the oppenent called our preflop raise preflop. So his Ev with his worse hands can be slighlty positive on the flop but not much. If the opponent can win back a great % of the 3bb he invested preflop, for example, then there is probably something wrong with our frequencies, since he will sometimes flop big hands with weak holdings. Exact numbers are impossible to determine.

And I think we could use a similar formula for the turn.

Was that what you were asking for?

Hi,

Yes I was asking exactly for that. I also read his book and found that, but it was somehow too much approximated for me. For example, it assumes that villian hand has 0% equity on the flop. But ok, it is a good enough approximation too see at least if we give him too much +EV.
What would you say, what is the threshold of % of the pot he wins, so that we can say our frequency is bad?
thanks.

Giving him back more than 50% of the openraise sounds too much for me, but I really have no idea ♦ ♦. Also, on high boards is somewhat easy to keep opp's EV low, but on low boards is very very difficult, even if we have more ovpairs in our range, etc.

OK, yes good point. imo giving him 30% back is allready too much since he is going to flop sometimes at least GS which can be played +EV.

On low board I would cr most lf my strong hands also some KK, AA, to lower his bet EV since it is the most efficient way.

Mathew Janda in his book sugges
which book is it ?

Originally posted by tokka1997
Mathew Janda in his book sugges
which book is it ?

Applications of No-Limit Hold 'em

I think it all depends on the limits we play and players???

so if you cbet 95% for example, can you fold something huge like 70%+ after checking without that being exploitable?

Originally posted by Kruppe
so if you cbet 95% for example, can you fold something huge like 70%+ after checking without that being exploitable?

In most situations you are exploitable because you're cbetting too much. Unless the board is very very good for us and we can cbet a high %, which does not happen that often (probably never in a single raised pot OOP).

whats the best way to exploit a 95% cbetter? from CO/BTN (wide range)

My thoughts would be to check turn tendencies, for a guy double barreling we can x/r flops / turns alot?

On the flop I would check raise my bottom pairs backdoors, gutshots, overcards on decent flops and flat strong hands
On the turn would x/r flush draws, OESD and turned draws, we can consider river tendencies & texture to raise nutted hands or flat them again for a river x/r

For a guy cbetting alot and checking the turn I would float the stronger draws & overcards with backdoors planning to bluff alot of rivers and check raise bottom pairs, weaker backdoors

Originally posted by double2

Originally posted by Kruppe
so if you cbet 95% for example, can you fold something huge like 70%+ after checking without that being exploitable?

In most situations you are exploitable because you're cbetting too much. Unless the board is very very good for us and we can cbet a high %, which does not happen that often (probably never in a single raised pot OOP).

right, but is his checking range not exploitable, if that question makes sense? are we only exploiting it indirectly by his cbetting range being too wide/weak vs further action/on later streets?

what if, for example, i find a way of having a balanced/solid 90% cbet range with a really small cbet size, and fold 80% or something after checking those 10%. where is the weakness in my strategy?

Originally posted by mattyvx
whats the best way to exploit a 95% cbetter? from CO/BTN (wide range)

My thoughts would be to check turn tendencies, for a guy double barreling we can x/r flops / turns alot?

On the flop I would check raise my bottom pairs backdoors, gutshots, overcards on decent flops and flat strong hands
On the turn would x/r flush draws, OESD and turned draws, we can consider river tendencies & texture to raise nutted hands or flat them again for a river x/r

For a guy cbetting alot and checking the turn I would float the stronger draws & overcards with backdoors planning to bluff alot of rivers and check raise bottom pairs, weaker backdoors

well firstly, if we play our cbet defending range solidly after defending the cbet, he's going to have a hard time if his range is wide/weak

Originally posted by Kruppe

Originally posted by double2

Originally posted by Kruppe
so if you cbet 95% for example, can you fold something huge like 70%+ after checking without that being exploitable?

In most situations you are exploitable because you're cbetting too much. Unless the board is very very good for us and we can cbet a high %, which does not happen that often (probably never in a single raised pot OOP).

what if, for example, i find a way of having a balanced/solid 90% cbet range with a really small cbet size, and fold 80% or something after checking those 10%. where is the weakness in my strategy?

Well, you could probably construct your range that way and be "balanced". That's the problem with the word "balanced". You could be balanced using a limping strategy in UTG. But this is not the same as saying that you are maximizing your EV or playing close to GTO.

In that strategy you mention, you could probably do that and do okay, but in a lot of situations you are not maximizing the EV of a good part of you value range. This is not the same as saying that they are no situations OOP where you shoud be betting a high % with a low sizing (I actually saw Sauce123 do something like this UTGvBU or something).

Originally posted by Kruppe

Originally posted by double2

Originally posted by Kruppe
so if you cbet 95% for example, can you fold something huge like 70%+ after checking without that being exploitable?

In most situations you are exploitable because you're cbetting too much. Unless the board is very very good for us and we can cbet a high %, which does not happen that often (probably never in a single raised pot OOP).

right, but is his checking range not exploitable, if that question makes sense? are we only exploiting it indirectly by his cbetting range being too wide/weak vs further action/on later streets?

Well, I think for the most part his strategy his exploitable on the cbeting too much side (very open to thin value raises and wide floats). Even if he check/folds everytime he checks those 5% that's not that much relevant.