full house vs. unknown opp

Shit happens sometimes. I think this was well played. You really can't fold on the river.

I think, it could be a coin flip, but it's a stretch imo. villain could get to turn with 22, but he has far more combos of 8x. It depends how often you think overplayed flushes, overpairs and other misplayed stuff shoves here. You would have less variance here with the fold.

Originally posted by sftpn
I think, it could be a coin flip, but it's a stretch imo. villain could get to turn with 22, but he has far more combos of 8x. It depends how often you think overplayed flushes, overpairs and other misplayed stuff shoves here. You would have less variance here with the fold.

I would overcall preflop

How can villian have 22 here? he is not calling flop and turn with 22. As played i don't think people are going crazy with the flush here - personally i'd have layed the FD on the turn as villian but even if he calls it i doubt he jamming it on a double paired board

I wouldn't be surprised to see villain holding AA. And I think he plays his flushes this way pretty often. I think they can do unbelievable things in NL5. If my math is not terribly off (it very well might be) we have to be about 35% of the time right to make this call? I think we are. But that's just my opinion.

villian did not 3bet pre and did not 4bet our squeeze so i got to rule out AA most of the time

i'm not sure about the flush thing, i can't see it - vs a reg tempting to check back the turn and calling river bet especially vs someone i thought would bluff riv with a busted flush draw

Villain does not hold AA here.

And x/c F and T and then overbet push R is a strong move. We write this in every similar hand.

I didn't mean to imply, it's likely that villain calls f and t bet here with 22, let alone villain should call. But a unkown not (bad) player could overvalue his pair, put hero on some FD and consider t be ahead. We don't know that of course. What I should have written is: It is very seldom villlain has 22 here and even then hero is mostly behind.

I don't think we can profitably raise this preflop, I would just check and take free cards. And when we do raise, I prefer doing it 3BB + 1BB per limper when IP and 4BB + 1 BB per limper when OOP. So, in this case I would raise to 6BB's. As played, we probably can't fold the river.

Yes, checking pre is the right play.
Why can't you fold the river?

Originally posted by nitrol
Yes, checking pre is the right play.
Why can't you fold the river?

Because I don't think he has 8x 100% of the time.

And we need to be good in 34,8% of cases.

In reality, we probably wont be, but I want to be a true example of Zeebos theorem. ♦

Overbetpush is not nuts?

Originally posted by nitrol
Overbetpush is not nuts?

Usually it is, but I've seen such moves with A6o. Probably not in 34,8% of cases, but still. ♦ If Zeebo says that players can't fold a fullhouse no matter how strong it is and which bet size they are faced with, who am I to break the theorem?

Mmm when we are from "the idiot" side of the fullhouse we should be careful.

Call preflop, I don´t like to raise this hand OOP.

As played x/b turn and call R is standard for me on double paired board with lower FH

Originally posted by nitrol
Overbetpush is not nuts?

Not always it´s quite player dependend. Usually it´s nuts at one player and air at another player. (and everything between as well at some crazy fish )

But agree that the percentage of players with nuts is probably higher so vs unknown it´s better to expect nuts

Will you call the overbet on river?