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NL2 SH, nut FD vs flop raise

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dienaszaglis
Joined: 12.06.2008

Hello!

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
Stacks:
UTG ($2.96) 148bb
UTG+1 ($2.08) 104bb
CO ($1.41) 71bb
BTN Hero ($3.52) 176bb
SB ($2.26) 113bb
BB ($2.42) 121bb
Pre-Flop: (0.03, 6 players) Hero is BTN A♥ 10:heart:

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.06, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.06, 2 folds

Flop: K♥ 5♠ 8♥ ($0.15, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.06, Hero raises to $0.18, UTG+1 raises to $0.68, Hero?

Villain: 37/21, RFI@MP:40(10), CB: 67, AF: 1.6 (2.7 F, 0.5 T), WTS: 25, 65h

PRE
I think, that this is good enough hand to flat vs someone, who opens a lot.
This hand is too good to 3bet bluff, and too weak to 3bet for value.

FLOP
He probably would c-bet larger with TP, so I think he is betting middle pair hands and draws.
By raising, I try to fold out better hands - smaller PP`s, 8x and get value from worse draws.

When he 3bets, I put him on sets, AK, KQ, maybe K8s. I get 33% pot odds, but I only got arounf 20% hand equity to turn.
I think, best action is to call, as I get reasonable implied odds - if I hit, I get his stack.

If I would shove, I would risk 1.34 to win 1, so it comes down to 42% equity. Equilab results shows, that a shove is unprofitable:


Board: K♥5♠8♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    37.71%  37.71%   0.00% { AhTh }
MP3    62.29%  62.29%   0.00% { 88, 55, AKs, KQs, K8s, AKo, KQo }


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11 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I do not think KQ are raising that big on flop.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Just call the flop, mate or at least reconsider what's the purpose of raising weak hands (as u mentioned u don't expect he was holding even TP)


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dienaszaglis
Joined: 12.06.2008

Considering his whole range on the flop, I expect decent FE. His small bet, probably means weakness.
Sure, calling is fine, vs 1/2 pot CB I would be more inclined to do so.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

What is his cbetting range on flop?


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dienaszaglis
Joined: 12.06.2008

I think he would probably c-bet bigger with draws (not to many of those anyway, only 67s and QhJh), and his value range - Kx, AA, QQ-99, sets.
He may even c-bet bigger with air. So, my guess would be, that he c-bets like this mostly 66-77, 8x.

As far as FE goes for the flop raise - who knows. Maybe he folds 1/2 of the time, and I`m fine with that.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I think that the hand is somewhere between being strong enough for raising for value and being to weak for raising for value, thus we can call it. It is certainly too strong for raising as a bluff. So, if we decided to raise this hand, I think we should at least call his 3bet, but I would just call the flop and plan to call the turn unimproved (or raise if we hit). If we call the turn unimproved, we can raise the river if we hit or, if we miss, we can bet the river unimproved if he desides to check.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I would call flop too. But was trying to see the reasons of Hero.


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Ales851
Joined: 16.07.2012

I prefer call flop. If you raise you should have a plan what to do and raise/folding is probably not good with our hand.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

After the raise we can still call.


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Kalecia
Joined: 28.08.2015

Originally posted by Ales851
I prefer call flop. If you raise you should have a plan what to do and raise/folding is probably not good with our hand.

This

Additionaly I preffer flat because you have JUST nut fd not combo draw, and if he has not Kx you can easily take down the pot on another streets


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Many players fall into this trap - holding a nut FD and they go crazy.
It is true that there is a backfoor SD too but sd you look at it tight now you have a mot that strong Axs hand.


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