Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

NL25 zoom AQ vs fish

6 Posts
4 Users
0 Reactions
51 Views
LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

CO 50/30 AF:2.5 fold to cb:0(3) 30h.

Note on CO: 3b shove AA for 81bb( so it looks like he doesn't like to slowplay)

My note is about pre flop play, but it could be true that if he doesn't like to slowplay pre, he might do the same post flop.

If he x/shoves something like this, I can't call:

Board: 5♠Q♣7♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    33.41%  15.09%  18.32% { AdQh }
MP3    66.59%  48.26%  18.32% { 77, 55, AQs, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, 9c8c, AQo }

So I need him to shove at least 2 combos of KQ, so that I could make a breakeven call.

Do you think that there is no way we can fold here?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2804939
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $35.89
BB: $25.00
UTG: $27.13
MP: $86.59
CO: $24.49

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Q :heart: A :diamond:
2 folds, CO raises to $1, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $2

Flop: ($6.35) 5 :spade: Q :club: 7 :club: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.30, CO raises to $21.49 all in, Hero ???


Reply
Quote
5 replies
urmo1
Joined: 02.03.2008

I think you can fold most of the times and call 25% of time with AQ. You can fold all AQ combos also, think that might be better. But just in case if his out of line i would like to call some combos.
im not putting him Ax with flushdraw, do you think fish is balanced in this flop when shoving? same like if his 3bet shoving AA for 81bb you cant put into his range AK or AQ for balance. I think 80% of the times you can see fish calling there with a draw. you can put maybe 1 or 2 combos put AQ still goes to fold.


Reply
Quote
bonecore
Joined: 02.11.2009

This should be simple math problem
we have 58% pot odds.. so lets give him a range that we are break even against...


Board: 5♠Q♣7♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    58.41%  51.56%   6.85% { AdQh }
CO     41.59%  34.75%   6.85% { KK-99, 77, 55, AQs, A7s, A5s, KQs, AQo }

now lets count the combos: (20 combos of hands we loose to and 20 combos of hands we beat)
since you saw his monkey style means AA, then 50% bluffs (20 combos) seem too much to assume to this opponent
---> fold


Reply
Quote
LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

Something wrong with your calculations, bonecore, we have around 37% pot odds.
It should be something like this 18.2/49.3=37%


Reply
Quote
bonecore
Joined: 02.11.2009

ops , ok i redo
we have 37% pot odds.. so lets give him a range that we are break even against...


Board: 5♠Q♣7♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     37.60%  27.45%  10.15% { AdQh }
BU     62.40%  52.25%  10.15% { KK-QQ, 77, 55, AQs, KQs, 65s, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, AQo }

now lets count the combos:
13 combos we are behind
6 combos we are tie
10 combos we are ahead
--->the bluffs represent 30% of hands ... and in general as a rule i would not go higher than 10-20% bluffs ... so it is a fold
if he never shoves with AQ then it is even worse because we have to add more bluffs to compensate for that equity


Reply
Quote
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

snap call
he might overplay KQ QJs from time to time
SPR is also very low


Reply
Quote