Set on Wet board

WP

We have 23% equity OTT vs nut flush here. It's not enough to call a shove. Limp calling pre and raising OTT when flush completes is pretty obvious. If you believe villain can bluff or raise with worse hand often enough, you can call.

Psb otf (even overbet), x/c ott (you had a blocker)

Originally posted by la55i
WP

We have 23% equity OTT vs nut flush here. It's not enough to call a shove. Limp calling pre and raising OTT when flush completes is pretty obvious. If you believe villain can bluff or raise with worse hand often enough, you can call.

And will you call a raise there?

Depends on villain and raise size. If villain minraises I would call it but as I said we don't have enough equity to call a shove. I would call a bigger raise if I had some reads that suggest villain could raise with worse hand like AQ or 88 or as a bluff.

We do not have a bet on Turn here.

Originally posted by nitrol
We do not have a bet on Turn here.

Ahaha, Cheers, m8.

Originally posted by Berezovaya

Originally posted by nitrol
We do not have a bet on Turn here.

got it, tnx

I think skipping turn bet would be a good thing here - not too many worse hands that can call, and definitely no bluffs coming to us here. If we check, our villain might check back (he has a weaker hand most likely) or we can ch/call and see the river.

My take on the turn:

Villain has 3% PFR and 30VPIP and he limped utg, even after a tiny sample
That tells me a lot of strong Ax are still in his range here, and I will also go ahead and assume he will have quite likely passive stationy tendencies.
Also because of the AdQd Td removed I'm not really afraid of flushes, you should get raised very rarely on the turn and it'll be very easy to play against his sizing if he does raise (mostly call + play the river, most recs people with KJ or flush will raise you small here. If he fully shoves you can just fold as you're deep).

Hands like QJ AJ + remaining KT+J9 are much more likely to call the turn than the river, and a player with these tendencies (stats+fact that he has UTG limp range) should have trouble folding Ax hands on the river and we can go for 3 streets vs those.

Conclusions I leave to you

Originally posted by LemOn36
My take on the turn:

Villain has 3% PFR and 30VPIP and he limped utg, even after a tiny sample
That tells me a lot of strong Ax are still in his range here, and I will also go ahead and assume he will have quite likely passive stationy tendencies.
Also because of the AdQd Td removed I'm not really afraid of flushes, you should get raised very rarely on the turn and it'll be very easy to play against his sizing if he does raise (mostly call + play the river, most recs people with KJ or flush will raise you small here. If he fully shoves you can just fold as you're deep).

Hands like QJ AJ + remaining KT+J9 are much more likely to call the turn than the river, and a player with these tendencies (stats+fact that he has UTG limp range) should have trouble folding Ax hands on the river and we can go for 3 streets vs those.

Conclusions I leave to you
i see. but then we have a problem OTR here as that A helps him more than me, so i go for check call OTR or still shoving as he might have trips? im just not sure how strong i am here OTR vs that limp range in general...

Yeah definitely shoving, I assume he should limp call all AXs, bunch of AXo
I also assume he should raise the flop with AQ AT some of the time, so OTR you have a +ev shove

Originally posted by LemOn36
Yeah definitely shoving, I assume he should limp call all AXs, bunch of AXo
I also assume he should raise the flop with AQ AT some of the time, so OTR you have a +ev shove

well, he had that AQ this time slowplayed...

but i got the idea any ways, big tnx

I do not agree with the assumptions of Lemon. Villain will not raise AQ AT that often as flush and straight are there.

IMO really well played on all streets. He will rarely be able to fold his flush and you want to get the value from it OTR, he also probably will peel one more street OTT with Ax and hitting trips OTR he probably wont be able to fold it either, there are a few combos that beat you so be it. his range is much wider than these few combos.

Originally posted by CPallo
I think skipping turn bet would be a good thing here - not too many worse hands that can call, and definitely no bluffs coming to us here. If we check, our villain might check back (he has a weaker hand most likely) or we can ch/call and see the river.

The thing is, the villain can also see that the flush is blocked, so he should not be too scared to call here. If he raises, we can assume he has the flush (or straight) and play according to the odds offered (assuming that he'll pay us OTR if we complete).

The thing is, the villain can also see that the flush is blocked

How? Assuming there's less than 50% of chance he holds we're not supposed to base our play on that assumption. Betting ott is complete misplay which leads us to losing money in the long run. Most of the time your gonna see c turn and b river (lots of bluffs included)

Originally posted by Berezovaya

The thing is, the villain can also see that the flush is blocked

How? Assuming there's less than 50% of chance he holds we're not supposed to base our play on that assumption. Betting ott is complete misplay which leads us to losing money in the long run. Most of the time your gonna see c turn and b river (lots of bluffs included)

really? but will he fold AK, will he fold AJ, will he fold 88?

Aj is folding if no Jd.