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SH Zoom JJ, BB vs MP, Set

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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $11.36 (113.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.14 (101.4 bb)
UTG: $10.99 (109.9 bb)
MP: $13.31 (133.1 bb)
CO: $22.49 (224.9 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.20, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.45) K J Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.98, MP calls $0.68

Turn: ($2.41) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, MP calls $1.60

River: ($5.61) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.68, MP raises to $7.70, Hero calls $4.68 and is all-in

Preflop: I usually call this BB vs MP.

Flop: Hit the set and decided to check/raise. When he called, I believe he might have something like AK. I expect AT, KK, QQ, KQ, KJ to 3bet most of the time.

Turn: I'm betting for value. I don't see much reasons to check.

River: Now I decided to bet a bit smalle than on the turn to get another call from AK. I expect KQ, KJ and QJ to call once again if he didn't raise those on the flop/turn. But... Then he shoved. Should I fold this? Could he have worse hands playing like that which he didn't raise the flop/turn with?

MP: 40/30/10 (VPIP/PFR/H)


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17 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I like to 3 bet those min open raises.
Postflop is ok. What do you think of xc river?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

I actually can see a river fold. All straights are in his as well as your range. This is a mouthful of 32 combos. Add to that KK and QQ in his (but probably not your) range. There is no way two pairs can raise OTR for value and there is simply a shortage of potential bluffs in his range. What would they be? T8s that missed? Q♦:8♦:?

Also, note that he raised, and need to win approximately 50% of the time he bluffs, not <25% as the pot odds (a bit more than 3:1) indicate. You can absolutely fold this OTR without being exploitable.


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MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

Originally posted by nitrol
I like to 3 bet those min open raises.
Postflop is ok. What do you think of xc river?

I think it's better than b/c.

Agree with Yohan that a river fold isn't unreasonable as played. KK/QQ/ATs/T9s are all very much in his range. I can't imagine he shoves for value with AK; maybe he has some KQ there but it's thin on his part if so.


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Malendes
Joined: 03.04.2011

I would personally 3bet pre, but call ofcause fine if you have called the other time in same situation.

On river I think we will be losing most of the time when he shoves, but getting better than 3:1, I believe we can call profitable against example KQ sometimes


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by Malendes
...
On river I think we will be losing most of the time when he shoves, but getting better than 3:1, I believe we can call profitable against example KQ sometimes

The pot odds 3:1 is not the relevant thing to look at when raised OTR. Not saying calling is wrong, but most players are unaware of the fact that they should fold much more to a raise getting X:1 than to a straight bet getting X:1. I personally need reads to call in this particular hand.


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Malendes
Joined: 03.04.2011

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Malendes
...
On river I think we will be losing most of the time when he shoves, but getting better than 3:1, I believe we can call profitable against example KQ sometimes

The pot odds 3:1 is not the relevant thing to look at when raised OTR. Not saying calling is wrong, but most players are unaware of the fact that they should fold much more to a raise getting X:1 than to a straight bet getting X:1. I personally need reads to call in this particular hand.

I am aware that villian is more likely to have it, when he reraises (and not betting), but I am probably not good to put villian on a specific range. Would you take all the hands that we are beating, out of his range when he reraises?
And this might be a fishy question, but i am still learning: what do you mean when you say that potodds is relevant when raised? Should I forget about the math in spots like these, and only act on reads?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by Malendes

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Malendes
...
On river I think we will be losing most of the time when he shoves, but getting better than 3:1, I believe we can call profitable against example KQ sometimes

The pot odds 3:1 is not the relevant thing to look at when raised OTR. Not saying calling is wrong, but most players are unaware of the fact that they should fold much more to a raise getting X:1 than to a straight bet getting X:1. I personally need reads to call in this particular hand.

I am aware that villian is more likely to have it, when he reraises (and not betting), but I am probably not good to put villian on a specific range. Would you take all the hands that we are beating, out of his range when he reraises?
And this might be a fishy question, but i am still learning: what do you mean when you say that potodds is relevant when raised? Should I forget about the math in spots like these, and only act on reads?

It is not at all a fishy question, and math should definitely not be forgotten. But the correct math should apply. This is not entirely trivial, and I don't want to go in-depth here this time (busy losing money:D). I'll just state the correct math; Villain is investing $8 to win $8 in case he is bluffing. He is giving you 3:1 to call. (Let these rounded numbers be true for the sake of reasoning). Thus he should be value raising and bluffing in proportions 3:1. If he does just that, then you can call with any percentage you like with your bluff catchers. Fold all or call 100%. It doesn't matter, you'll be break even. But, only if you call with exactly 50% of the bluff catchers you will be unexploitable. Only in this case he breaks even on his bluffs (he needs to take it down 50% of the time, getting 8:8). He can't do anything to exploit you, and you can't do anything to exploit him. It is a Nash equilibrium. Had it been a straight bet you need to defend 75% getting the same odds.

This is the mathematical side of affairs. No reads needed for this. So it is the opposite of what you might have been expecting. You need reads to deviate :)


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thazar
Joined: 14.09.2009

Originally posted by Malendes

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Malendes
...
On river I think we will be losing most of the time when he shoves, but getting better than 3:1, I believe we can call profitable against example KQ sometimes

The pot odds 3:1 is not the relevant thing to look at when raised OTR. Not saying calling is wrong, but most players are unaware of the fact that they should fold much more to a raise getting X:1 than to a straight bet getting X:1. I personally need reads to call in this particular hand.

I am aware that villian is more likely to have it, when he reraises (and not betting), but I am probably not good to put villian on a specific range. Would you take all the hands that we are beating, out of his range when he reraises?
And this might be a fishy question, but i am still learning: what do you mean when you say that potodds is relevant when raised? Should I forget about the math in spots like these, and only act on reads?

you should not forget about pot odds. Reads narrow your opponent's range in this case and could flip whether his range has more or less bluffs. without reads I think it is safe to assume that his range is very polarised to monsters that beat us.

About the play itself, I think you should re-raise a min raise preflop, particularly with a hand as strong as JJ .post flop not much to say till the river where I think it is a clear fold. I am not sure if I would have been able to fold in situ though, I probably would have made the wrong decision .


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Not bad. I think you should have raised more preflop and a bigger bet on the turn. On the river though, I like check/call maybe. I don't see the 2 changing anything. I think if he has a bigger set, or if he flopped a straight, he would have made a strong mover before the flop. KK, or QQ seems unlikely though, as I think he would have re raised preflop.


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kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Malendes
...
On river I think we will be losing most of the time when he shoves, but getting better than 3:1, I believe we can call profitable against example KQ sometimes

The pot odds 3:1 is not the relevant thing to look at when raised OTR. Not saying calling is wrong, but most players are unaware of the fact that they should fold much more to a raise getting X:1 than to a straight bet getting X:1. I personally need reads to call in this particular hand.

The two of you are talking about different things. Malendes goes with the exploitative approach where the thought process is "Ok, we get 3:1 pot odds, he has X stronger combos, we need Y weaker ones to have a profitable call. Do we have them?". And that is all of it, we don't care about the frequencies. What you are saying is indeed correct and the right way to approach the problem from a theoretical point of view.

How can we combine the two approaches to make better decisions? I see two ways to do it. The first is to begin with the theoretical point of view and then adjust just a little to exploit the field and wait for reads (as you suggested). The other one is to start with the exploitative approach and only when the answer to the above question is "I don't know." or "I'm not sure.", we go to theory to give us an idea what to do.

I don't know which one is better for the microstakes players. For getting results on micros I'm sure the "exploiting first" approach is better. Also this is the best time to understand how weak players think and play as they are all around you.
On the other hand, thinking more about theory will be a good preparation for when you move up and also will give you an idea about what exploting actually is and when you can exploit someone (when he deviates from the optimal lines and frequencies => you have to know them so that you know where his leaks are). What do you think?
---
Sorry for the slight off-topic. Hand can be 3bet preflop because of the minopen, against standard open call from BB is fine. On the river it should be a fold after the raise - I don't expect him to raise two pair on the river. If we're not sure and still feel bad folding a set, we can think about our range and see that we have a lot of straights in there so he can't exploit us by bluffing.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I think fold is ok as played, as most 2 pairs would have re-raised you earlier.


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Malendes
Joined: 03.04.2011

Thanks Yohan, Thazar and Kriko - useful stuff :f_thumbsup:


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Thank you, guys! Excellent comments there!

I was really not feeling great with calling the river because I just can't see many worse hands than mine which didn't raise before. I don't see him raising AK or KQ now, for example. On the other hand, I don't like the idea of check/calling because I expect those to call my bet more often than bet vs my check (especially stuff like AK or KT). I pretty much exclude all gutshots that might bluff because I don't think there are many of them by the river after all the action. I think we have to take the value with betting. It is very anoying when he raises, but I would like to become a player who don't think in those spots like "Fuck it, I have a set and I will call" (in this case I thought exactly that).


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You should better become a player who can play this hand better. :)


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
You should better become a player who can play this hand better. :)
I actually don't hate my play untill this call on the river (true that we could 3bet pre). I believe that the call makes a difference between playing this hand fine and badly, so being able to fold probably means that I can play the hand better.


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IPtkv
Joined: 30.08.2011
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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I would 3bet pre, post looks ok. River can be a fold.


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