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SH Zoom KK, SB vs BTN, Deep in 3bet pot

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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $17.74 (177.4 bb)
BB: $15.35 (153.5 bb)
UTG: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $3.48 (34.8 bb)
CO: $6.52 (65.2 bb)
BTN: $44.28 (442.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K K
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.90, BB folds, BTN calls $0.70

Flop: ($1.90) 7 8 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, BTN calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.10) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, BTN calls $2.10

River: ($8.30) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5, Hero??

Preflop: The BTN is a reg, playing 26/21 in 78 hands, BTN RFI is 57 (in 7 hands), he folded once in 2 hands when faced with a 3bet and once called. Decided to 3bet for value and make it a bit bigger, since we are deeper. Maybe should go even bigger, but not sure.

Flop: Hit an overpair, but this board probably hits one part of his calling range (also one part of my 3bet bluffing range). Decided to cbet for value. He could have overpairs, draws and overcards which could call. I expect him to raise sets. I would probably fold if he raises, anyway. He folds 50% to flop cbets (once in 2 hands), so not much info about how he plays vs flop cbets.

Turn: Not the best card, but 6x is not a big part of his range, imo, so I cbet again. Not sure about the sizing, but I didn't want to make it too big because I still want draws and overpairs to call. Maybe it could be a bit bigger because those hands would still call. If not on the flop, I expect him to raise sets now on the turn. The plan was to fold if he raises.

River: Flushdraws missed and according to his flop and turn play, I don't put him on full houses very often. I believe that, from the hands I beat, he has something like QQ-TT, QT. Of course he might have some full houses and straights. I decided to check, but I believe it would be fine to bet small (like 1/3) and fold to a raise because with betting small I might get calls from overpairs and I don't expect him to bluff raise the river that deep in 3bet pot, even though I would bet that small. When I checked and he bets, I believe that he either has a busted flushdraw or he has me beat with fullhouses and straights because I don't expect him to bet those one pair hands, but it's not totally excluded. So, what would you do?


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15 replies
MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

God what a horrible flop.

As played I'm probably calling the river. He shouldn't have a lot of 6x, much of his 8x flopped two pair and should have raised at some point before the river, and he doesn't have many 99/77 for the same reason. He definitely has enough AhJh or QQ going for thin value to justify a call.

Bet/folding river would also be OK for the reasons you stated.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

Considering Villain's calling range and this board I can say that Hero second barrels with very high reverse implied odds and Hero is heading to a wall.


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xin1575
Joined: 22.10.2015

Tough spot, but I'm probably calling the River as well. It's a great board to bluff at especially since you signaled weakness when you check the river. I think you played it the same way I would have.


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MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

Originally posted by scopinad
Considering Villain's calling range and this board I can say that Hero second barrels with very high reverse implied odds and Hero is heading to a wall.

I don't think reverse implied odds is a factor. We're not drawing and would obviously be check/folding all 6/T/J/spade rivers except perhaps the Ks.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Originally posted by xin1575
Tough spot, but I'm probably calling the River as well. It's a great board to bluff at especially since you signaled weakness when you check the river. I think you played it the same way I would have.

I think I would look at villains total agression frequency. But I do not think that its super bad to fold at this limit because - we showed so much strength - we 3bet, we cbet > 1/2 , we barrel turn, villain can put us on hand like this. Does he expect that NL10 player will fold often?

If he has like 50 % afq, then I think its call.

ANd this is the spot for those who like anonimous tables - how can you make now max ev decition if you are playing a guessing game. We are now playing a geussing game.

What did you do, if call, what did he have?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

How about this on river:
MP2 63.64% 63.64% 0.00% KdKc
MP3 36.36% 36.36% 0.00% 99-77, ATs, KTs, QTs, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

I put myself in the Villain's shoes calling Hero's premium pair 3bet with low connectors or pair in position with great implied odds and hitting a great flop.

Reverse implied odds is Hero holding a goood hand ( ok you got me there he has KK which is second best but still) and little hope of improving (typical of premium pairs post-flop, although a two pair is a hit on the river) and villain has a hand that is already ahead (set on flop or straight on the turn) or likely to be best by the river (trips with paired board, full house).

Please shoot me if I am not making sense, I write this stuff to complement my studying and inprint concepts in my mind.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by scopinad
Considering Villain's calling range and this board I can say that Hero second barrels with very high reverse implied odds and Hero is heading to a wall.

What range would you assign him for raise/calling preflop and calling flop?


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
How about this on river:
MP2 63.64% 63.64% 0.00% KdKc
MP3 36.36% 36.36% 0.00% 99-77, ATs, KTs, QTs, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs

I think it makes sense.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c

Originally posted by xin1575
Tough spot, but I'm probably calling the River as well. It's a great board to bluff at especially since you signaled weakness when you check the river. I think you played it the same way I would have.

I think I would look at villains total agression frequency. But I do not think that its super bad to fold at this limit because - we showed so much strength - we 3bet, we cbet > 1/2 , we barrel turn, villain can put us on hand like this. Does he expect that NL10 player will fold often?

If he has like 50 % afq, then I think its call.

ANd this is the spot for those who like anonimous tables - how can you make now max ev decition if you are playing a guessing game. We are now playing a geussing game.

What did you do, if call, what did he have?

Yeah, I called. He had 87. I would expect those to raise the flop or turn, tbh.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by scopinad
I put myself in the Villain's shoes calling Hero's premium pair 3bet with low connectors or pair in position with great implied odds and hitting a great flop.

Reverse implied odds is Hero holding a goood hand ( ok you got me there he has KK which is second best but still) and little hope of improving (typical of premium pairs post-flop, although a two pair is a hit on the river) and villain has a hand that is already ahead (set on flop or straight on the turn) or likely to be best by the river (trips with paired board, full house).

Please shoot me if I am not making sense, I write this stuff to complement my studying and inprint concepts in my mind.

No need to shoot you. ;) As reversed implied odds are concerned, we have those when we drawing to the hand which will not be the best, if I remember correctly. In this hand we don't have a draw, thus no riversed implied odds. Having said that, I won't consider our hand to be drawing to a turn or river set because we will probably very rarely have good pot odds for drawing to a set, except maybe someone bets really small.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by xin1575
Tough spot, but I'm probably calling the River as well. It's a great board to bluff at especially since you signaled weakness when you check the river. I think you played it the same way I would have.

I was somewhere at that track while playing because I would espect all his river fullhouses to raise at some point before, so the most likelly hand for me was a missed draw, since I expect overpairs to check back.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c

Originally posted by xin1575
Tough spot, but I'm probably calling the River as well. It's a great board to bluff at especially since you signaled weakness when you check the river. I think you played it the same way I would have.

I think I would look at villains total agression frequency. But I do not think that its super bad to fold at this limit because - we showed so much strength - we 3bet, we cbet > 1/2 , we barrel turn, villain can put us on hand like this. Does he expect that NL10 player will fold often?

If he has like 50 % afq, then I think its call.

ANd this is the spot for those who like anonimous tables - how can you make now max ev decition if you are playing a guessing game. We are now playing a geussing game.

What did you do, if call, what did he have?

Over 40 I would already call. So many busted draws there.
Do u have the agg freq on villain, Alleen?


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

usually river arq is lower

Originally posted by Afulibador

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c

Originally posted by xin1575
Tough spot, but I'm probably calling the River as well. It's a great board to bluff at especially since you signaled weakness when you check the river. I think you played it the same way I would have.

I think I would look at villains total agression frequency. But I do not think that its super bad to fold at this limit because - we showed so much strength - we 3bet, we cbet > 1/2 , we barrel turn, villain can put us on hand like this. Does he expect that NL10 player will fold often?

If he has like 50 % afq, then I think its call.

ANd this is the spot for those who like anonimous tables - how can you make now max ev decition if you are playing a guessing game. We are now playing a geussing game.

What did you do, if call, what did he have?

Over 40 I would already call. So many busted draws there.
Do u have the agg freq on villain, Alleen?

usually river afq is lower, so if total is 40, on river might be 23-30 I think.
Best thing would be to filter the database of such situations, and see what people have. Him betting with 87 for me also does not make sense, cause he had to raise flop. So maybe it makes sense to think that when they bet at low limits, they often have value hand, even if that hand does not make sense when we hand read , because they do what is not normal :)

Of course - he is unknown, so he could be fish, so we should not discount this at all. So then it makes sense that he slowplays the nuts till the end on wet board.
Of course fish might spew money, but to find out, we pay high price -half of the stack. Hmm, we need to be good 27 % of time, so maybe its close.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
Best thing would be to filter the database of such situations, and see what people have. Him betting with 87 for me also does not make sense, cause he had to raise flop. So maybe it makes sense to think that when they bet at low limits, they often have value hand, even if that hand does not make sense when we hand read , because they do what is not normal :)

One time I heard that vs guys that are not thinking the game properly, its a waste of time trying to figure out what he has. He is not thinking in a logical way, so all ur efford is useless. When this happens, stick to ur game and let him do bad plays alone.


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