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NL50 KK sqz

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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

MP 26/20
AF:3.9
fold to 3b:44 in MP:16(7)
4b range:3(18) vs me:25(8)
fold to F cb:50
Agg% by streets: 44/37/13
WTSD:20
W$SD:31
529h.

I put him on this range, IMO he is 4betting QQ/AK vs me, I have pretty high 3b and sqz frequencies:


Board: 3♥8♣Q♣ 5♦ A♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    82.35%  82.35%   0.00% { 88, AQs, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, AQo }
MP3    17.65%  17.65%   0.00% { KhKs }

So I think we have to x/f river.

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2847768
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $58.88
SB: $56.61
Hero (BB): $105.18
UTG: $50.50
CO: $52.34

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with K :heart: K :spade:
UTG raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.50, UTG calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14.75) 3 :heart: 8 :club: Q :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50

Turn: ($27.75) 5 :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $13.75, UTG calls $13.75

River: ($55.25) A :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $23.75 all in, Hero ???


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7 replies
Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

I was impressed that even w those combos of clubs, we are crushed really hard vs this range. Fact is that are very few of them compared to the number of combos w an ace on it.
I was trying to figure out one better solution to this ending... but maybe we cant do much here. It sucks but x/f seems the correct approach.


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Jaissica
Joined: 10.02.2009

This difficult spot was created entirely by your bet sizing on the flop.

If you had bet a more reasonable flop bet of $11.00, and the villain continued, the turn pot would be $36.75. At that stage - with effective stacks remaining $36.50 - you should shove. On the turn you still crush his range and force all of his flush hands to fold, while probably getting called down by Qx. If he holds AQ, well, you got your money in while way in front rather than having to consider a -EV crying call on the river.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Wow, loved the answer Jaissica... I listen so much that we have to cbet half pot or less in 3bet pots that was not even thinking that the sizing of the bet on flop could solve this.

But them comes my doubt. We have to bet this big as std? If not, in which situations would be appropriate?


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

I don't like such huge bet on such dry board in sqz pot vs reg, vs weak player it's the best line. Jaissica, so you would bet this size with all you cbetting range OTF?


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Jaissica
Joined: 10.02.2009

It's more about setting up the effective stack sizes on the turn to enable a shove. By betting smaller as played you create a situation where a turn shove would be a massive overplay, but a turn bet is going to leave a sub optimal river bet amount behind. Both options suck.

Now if the guy had another 20 bucks behind - effective stacks $70 - I would play as played, because his river shove at this point would now be $43 at a $55 pot. With just $23 at a $55 pot, if a small club had hit sometimes you might convince yourself to call and pay out his implied odds.

So I bet bigger here than normal on the flop and turn due to these effective stack sizes, in order to prevent having to either make a sub optimal river value bet of 1/3rd of the pot, or having to make a gross call or laydown when a scarecard river hits.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I prefer putting the money in on 2 streets here. Our primary goal is to go AI when we are ahead.
As played I sm folding even for that price.


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

And how would you play for example AcKx on this board, what about bet sizings? You bet 11$ OTF and then ship turns which give us equity?


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