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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

BB 28/26
AF:8
3b:13
fold to F cb:40
r F cb:50(4)
188h.

I'm thinking about shoving OTR, I don't see him having AJ and I block Js9s and I can have AsJs and Js9s. IMO he should fold 77/88 to my R shove and he still can have some bluffs himself. What do you think?

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2845769
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $66.33
SB: $58.68
BB: $166.82
UTG: $133.22
MP: $100.45
CO: $109.07

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with T :club: 9 :spade:
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.25) K :spade: 7 :heart: 8 :spade: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.44, BB raises to $4.70, Hero calls $3.26

Turn: ($11.65) Q :diamond: (2 players)
BB bets $7.23, Hero calls $7.23

River: ($26.11) T :diamond: (2 players)
BB bets $18.70, Hero ???


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14 replies
KoeNe4U
Joined: 20.11.2009

I really like your thought proces in this hand. In my opinion, given the fact that villain has a 3bet of 13, I don't see him calling K8s, 78s or K7s preflop, but rather see him 3betting this preflop if his range is polarised or folding if his range is depolarised, being the sb.
So, this leaves only 77 or 88 as pure value raises on flop, and As10s, AsJs, Qs10s, QsJs, Js10s as semibluff raises on flop which, besides AsJs will fold to a river shove, knowing you can easily have KK, AsJs.
Curious about other opinions


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

I think he can call with K8s,Ks7s pre, but it's even better for us if he plays like that, I can't see him calling river shove with that, so I fold more hands, but to be honest I don't think he value bets R with those hands.
I can have Js9s as well.


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MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

River shove is pretty sexy.

You do rep super-thin, though, so I wouldn't guarantee he folds a set.


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Jaissica
Joined: 10.02.2009

Does your own story make any sense?

Only one combination of hero holding AJ and J9 each is calling the flop raise.

Of the other obvious flop draws, only 69 made it by the river. Hero is presumably stealing 69s but not 69o, eliminating a large number of combinations, and is hero flakey enough to call the flop then pay overs for the turn draw, but not aggressive enough to shove 6s9s on the flop, presuming its not blocked?

A shove here would be dependant on the villain and how they handle situations where the hero's story makes no sense. If their play is to call in that spot often, the shove would be -EV.

BTW Koe, AJ is going nowhere on a river shove here, as the board has not paired and there is no reason to be scared of KK QQ with the nut straight :)


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Originally posted by LuckyManFromLT
I think he can call with K8s,Ks7s pre, but it's even better for us if he plays like that, I can't see him calling river shove with that, so I fold more hands, but to be honest I don't think he value bets R with those hands.
I can have Js9s as well.

Why not, LuckyMan? (about value bet raising the flop)


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Jaissica, I really thin Koe tried to say that except AsJs all other combinations he mentioned would fold to a river shove _grin:


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

Aflulibador, sorry, but I didn't understand your question.


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KoeNe4U
Joined: 20.11.2009

Originally posted by Afulibador
Jaissica, I really thin Koe tried to say that except AsJs all other combinations he mentioned would fold to a river shove _grin:

Indeed I meant that ;)


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

LuckyManFromLT, Why do u think villain would not value bet raise the flop w K7, K8?


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

Oh, I mean I don't think he value bets R(river) with K8s/K7s, especially with that sizing.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

oooooww, ok _tongue:
And I was asking myself all this time: What?? Why not??? hahaha
I though the meaning of ur "R" was Raise (that happened on flop) and not River. My bad _thumbsup:


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Guys ,villain is betting for value here and I don't like the idea of raising. Even the turn call is somewhat light...


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KoeNe4U
Joined: 20.11.2009

Originally posted by nitrol
Guys ,villain is betting for value here and I don't like the idea of raising. Even the turn call is somewhat light...

If so, what kind of value do you think he has? Even if it is a set of 7s or 8s in worst case, I think a shove can get him of those hands too


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Originally posted by KoeNe4U
what kind of value do you think he has? Even if it is a set of 7s or 8s in worst case, I think a shove can get him of those hands too

Definitely not the nuts. The thing is if he ll believe in LuckyMan's story as well.


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