AA - wet board and turn x/shove

I think QQ and TT are very possible. KK is probably 4betting preflop and is not raising the turn. I also wouldn't expect any bluffs there. So, overall, I think folding is an optimal play there, despite of good pot odds we have.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 3dQsTs9d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.36% 46.36% 0.00% { AdAs }
MP3 53.64% 53.64% 0.00% { JJ, KJs }

I would call. If you add T9s, one combo QQ and half of the combos of KJo we still have the odds.

By your own analysis, you don't even have a turn value bet. And, no, he doesn't have a nut flush draw. You block both. You cannot win a big pot, so keep it small by clicking back turn.

Originally posted by VaskataBuci
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 3dQsTs9d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.36% 46.36% 0.00% { AdAs }
MP3 53.64% 53.64% 0.00% { JJ, KJs }

I would call. If you add T9s, one combo QQ and half of the combos of KJo we still have the odds.

cant he have TT and 33 there? and I really don't see him doing this with JJ so for me his range is very nut heavy QTs or better; I would even remove T9s

Board: 3♦Q♠T♠ 9♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2     5.97%   5.97%   0.00% { AdAs }
MP3    94.03%  94.03%   0.00% { QQ, TT, 33, KJs, QTs }

I think we cannot bet turn for profit.
As played I would fold. We cannot win every hand.

Originally posted by YohanN7
By your own analysis, you don't even have a turn value bet. And, no, he doesn't have a nut flush draw. You block both. You cannot win a big pot, so keep it small by clicking back turn.

Agree, YohanN7. Many hands already got there w this terrible board, so checking back and trying to get to showdown seems an way better option.

thazar, 33 I think its a bit too much. Its not in my opening range from UTG, for example.
But, IF this player has it, MAYBE he can call w it since CO also called.

many players open any PPs from UTG and he got the odds to call the raise.

either way it doesnt make much difference . IMO we are behind all of his range

can we bet smaller ott?

we can IMO anything over 1/2 pot will have the same effect , so you can make it around$1.75 - $1.8 but that is just htinking in hindsight. Before getting raise we assume that we are ahead because his calling range will be essentially the range we beat and we want to extract as much value as possible from it. So I think that the current bet sie is great

This is a tough spot. QQ, TT, 99 are all possible in this spot. So is KK. But this kinda feels like a flush draw to me. As long as you don't think he has a set, I'd call.