trips vs river shove

If he has Ac4c then we have some serious issues

I doubt he's calling pre with A8cc given he's on the tighter side. Ac2c, 75cc and 97cc are hands that make the most sense for him. I see no reason he couldn't play 97s/75s this way given that the flush is a backdoor one; most people aren't overly worried about them.

I don't think it's an unreasonable fold. It's difficult for him to have much of a bluff range in this spot and it's a big raise.

I think you played this fine.

Villain has a specific reason to call flop and turn.
When he makes that solid raise on river , I will fold.

what do u think about sizing otr..

What is bothering you there?

This is a tough spot and I think you played it well. The river completes flushes and straights. Something like Ac8c, Ac2c, or even 97 suited (not just clubs, any suited) are all real possibilities for him to have in this spot. He called the flop and turn for a reason. But that reason could have been to bluff you on the river. Either way I think you made a good fold.

I think u played this hand fine. And folding on this river is also fine.

Originally posted by Tinsley15
what do u think about sizing otr..

I dont think its a strange sizing, its a half pot bet. Very common one.

Pfeuw, that is a difficult spot. I would fold it though because also against regs, more than 50% of the time you will lose this one anyway against his range. I do see quite some dominating hands going to the river. However, I also see some bluff catchers as QJs and 10-9s and occasional pocket pairs.

Hero has to be good here 31,8% of the time to justify a call. So, he can actually loose 60% and be winning in the long run.
The thing is... this line is really value heavy, making even 31,8% good hard to achieve (villain is not doing this often with worse).

You calculated his equity based on your perceived range?

maybe he slowplayed a set

Originally posted by Hesticus
You calculated his equity based on your perceived range?

the numbers were based in pot odds.

ah like that. Thanks

U re welcome.
If we use the theory Yohan presented as GTO, villain's bluff on this spot has to work aprox 59% of the time. So we should fold the bottom 59% of our bluffcatchers to be balanced.

Yohan didn't teach me this part, but I think with a nit range opening from MP (22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo+), we can get to this river w a range like TT+,88,66,22,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc.
If we exclude the Axcc hands that are value for sure, we keep w TT+,88,66,22,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc. Thats 39 possible combos.
In order to fold 59%, we have to fold 23 of those combos. Keeping 16.
This would result in a range like TT,88,66,22,AhAs,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc.
So, all sets, all flushes and one combo of Aces (with given range as example) are still remaining.

See that with this theory, this should be a call. But villain is probably not playing gto, so this was more an illustration of how it should work GTO-wise than a proper advice to give in this actual hand.
Cheers

Yes, agree. I also read a part about game theory vs game practical. It also says that the theory may be right, however, you are not playing against machines and they do not always make optimal decisions (e.g. thinking your opponent is always capable of lay down AA on a QQ798 board). As in my post where Nitrol stated that vilain on BTN can call a Cbet in my situation, which was on a dry flop, with 2 suited broadway cards, indicates a higher probability that this one can do that too. I believe that more people can think like that and actually even I can call these from time to time on the BTN and see if I can float or increase my equity by hitting one of my broadways. Therefore, in situations like this, you can fold more comfortably.

IMO, that is

Originally posted by Afulibador
U re welcome.
If we use the theory Yohan presented as GTO, villain's bluff on this spot has to work aprox 59% of the time. So we should fold the bottom 59% of our bluffcatchers to be balanced.

Yohan didn't teach me this part, but I think with a nit range opening from MP (22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo+), we can get to this river w a range like TT+,88,66,22,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc.
If we exclude the Axcc hands that are value for sure, we keep w TT+,88,66,22,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc. Thats 39 possible combos.
In order to fold 59%, we have to fold 23 of those combos. Keeping 16.
This would result in a range like TT,88,66,22,AhAs,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc.
So, all sets, all flushes and one combo of Aces (with given range as example) are still remaining.

See that with this theory, this should be a call. But villain is probably not playing gto, so this was more an illustration of how it should work GTO-wise than a proper advice to give in this actual hand.
Cheers

MP will get to river with 99, 9c8c, 8c7c, Jc9c too.

Originally posted by Afulibador
U re welcome.
If we use the theory Yohan presented as GTO, villain's bluff on this spot has to work aprox 59% of the time. So we should fold the bottom 59% of our bluffcatchers to be balanced.

Yohan didn't teach me this part, but I think with a nit range opening from MP (22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo+), we can get to this river w a range like TT+,88,66,22,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc.
If we exclude the Axcc hands that are value for sure, we keep w TT+,88,66,22,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc. Thats 39 possible combos.
In order to fold 59%, we have to fold 23 of those combos. Keeping 16.
This would result in a range like TT,88,66,22,AhAs,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc.
So, all sets, all flushes and one combo of Aces (with given range as example) are still remaining.

See that with this theory, this should be a call. But villain is probably not playing gto, so this was more an illustration of how it should work GTO-wise than a proper advice to give in this actual hand.
Cheers

This is spot on when in comes to reasoning, even though I'd personally have 8 combos of straights (97s, 75s) and fewer flushes (not c-betting twice with all these), so my range is smaller and all small sets are folds. TT would be borderline calls. A read could tweak this to a fold.