Originally posted by la55i
Against UTG open it would be better to just flat QQ.
Surely not. It's SH NL2. Flatting QQ here is rock-like nitty. We had a good discussion over AQ and I think both sides took valid points in it, but this one is flat out ridiculous. QQ is a 1.36% range hand that holds up quite fine postflop, even if an overcard hits. So many worse hands can call3 and then pay streets.
Flatting here is just trapping (unless it is scared money). Trapping is fine at times vs the right villains but it isn't "standard".
I do note that the strategy guide for SH does for whatever reason have QQ as a flat hand in this spot. However after our discussions regarding AQ recently I doubt you'll want to use that as a supporting argument, given it says to 3bet AQ.
Originally posted by la55i
You have 31 hands so positional stats are quite irrelevant. He has had only 5 EPs and played 2, doesn't tell anything. Same goes for 3bet stat...
The 31 hands already tell us this quite possibly isn't a positionally aware player. It isn't ironclad yet but it is an indicator. The developing read supports the idea that the villain probably opens the same range from every position, is a little loose, and this feeds into the obvious decision - 3bet preflop.
Originally posted by la55i
OTF standard 3bet size would be 1/2 pot in 3bet pots. You can go bigger but this is a bit too big imo.
OTT we can apply baluga theorem and fold to a raise since our hand is worse than top 2 pair.
We can also apply the "it's NL2" theorem and remember that what applies vs even 5 cent regulars isn't a focus here. You've mandated a fold with 3.6 to one pot odds here - we only need 28% equity to find a mathematically correct call.
Originally posted by la55i
It is possible that he has AA,KK since not all players have 4bet range even with those hands at NL2. Although there is no reason to think he is a fish.. He has 26/26 stats and a full stack. The problem is that you are looking at stats which requires A LOT bigger sample. It is terrible mistake to try to exploit a player based on stats that are not yet accurate.
It is quite possible villain is overplaying AA, KK, JJ and Tx hands. It is possible the villain is even overplaying unimproved smaller PP, or making an "NL2" shove bluff with draws or overs. If we constructed a possible range for a slightly loose villain here I doubt we could say this was even a good fold.
At the moment the suits are stripped as the holdemmanager site is not responding so it makes range constructions difficult, but if I recall the turn did create a flush draw. However If we give the villain ONLY sets, overpairs and TPTK here, we have a clear call -
Board: 4♥T♠2♣ 7♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.28% 40.12% 1.16% { QdQs }
MP3 58.72% 57.56% 1.16% { TT+, 77, 44, 22, ATs, ATo }
Yet (if I am right and the turn created a flush draw) we have to add combo draws, overcard + flush draws, and given its NL2 vs a standard NL2 unknown, any number of other spewy hands (unimproved AK who simply doesn't believe you've hit) - in which case we are so far in front I don't even know what you guys are thinking with talking about with Baluga theorum and finding folds.
Final point - everyone playing NL2 is a recreational player. Some might be making an effort to learn the game, like our Pokerstrategy members, and will quickly progress to higher limits - but no one is making a professional living, or even generating a useful secondary income, at two cents per big blind.
(edited because I had the wrong range in the post, accidentally left in AKs - still a very easy call)
Q
(2 players)
