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QQ over pair + gutshot - vilan goes all-in on turn

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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

Hello, guys.

On flop I bet high because of possible flush draw.
On turn I was ready to make vilan go all-in, but he donked, so I folded. Would it be correct to bet a lot if he had checked? Before he donked turn i was thinking he must have pocket pairs bellow TT. Maybe bellow 88. In that case I had 82% equity.

Equity Win Tie
CO 18.18% 18.18% 0.00% 88-22
BU 81.82% 81.82% 0.00% QhQs

But after he donks, I think he has a set.

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 102 BB (VPIP: 64.71, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 92.5 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
BB: 167.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
UTG: 193 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 0.5 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 3 BB) Hero has Q♥ Q♠

UTG calls 1 BB, CO checks, Hero raises to 6 BB, fold, BB calls 5 BB, UTG calls 5 BB, CO calls 5 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 4 players) J♦ 8♠ T♦
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets 20 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 20 BB

Turn: (65 BB, 2 players) 4♣
CO bets 75.5 BB and is all-in, fold


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15 replies
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Villain looks strong here. We should fold


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Villain looks suspect here. We should still fold.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

I like the bet on the 4 player wet flop. Too bad you cannot shake off the 64 vpip fish. He could have any two hands. Fold this and look for the next good hand to stack him.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think you can't put villain only on 88-22. In reality he has wider range. Why you think he has only those hands?
Villains donk shove looks fishy. Could be set or monster draw or something. You can fold. Or gamble :roto2:


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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

I put him on those hands because I thought he would have raised if he had better hands, since he just checked because he posted the penalty blind, I thought that was a reasonable range.

What if he hasn't donk shove? I was going to bet almost pot size, but since this would mean almost all his stack, I would make him go all-in. Should I play differently if he hadn't shove?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

It is called the "right of first bluff". It is one of the few privileges you have out of position.

You need to reassess your methods of putting villain on a range if you estimate 82% equity here.


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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

Originally posted by YohanN7
It is called the "right of first bluff". It is one of the few privileges you have out of position.

You need to reassess your methods of putting villain on a range if you estimate 82% equity here.

I was thinking that range before his shove. After that, all I was thinking was 88 or 44. =P

I have just started thinking in ranges. There's still a lot to learn.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by robin261187

Originally posted by YohanN7
It is called the "right of first bluff". It is one of the few privileges you have out of position.

You need to reassess your methods of putting villain on a range if you estimate 82% equity here.

I was thinking that range before his shove. After that, all I was thinking was 88 or 44. =P

I have just started thinking in ranges. There's still a lot to learn.

Okay, my mistake. But a player with those stats can have just about anything. He can have J8 or whatever. He can also have a draw. You (or I) simply don't know. Fold is fine since the bet is big.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain is a fish and calls with very wide range preflop. Because many players entered the pot it makes it even more interesting for him. He posted penalty blind and checked utg's limp and called your raise = his hand is probably pretty weak. When he shoves OTT it is reasonable to think he can have any set, 2 pair, straight etc... And some draws of course.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Villain has a bunch of hands that hit this board so we should fold.


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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

What if he hadn't shove on turn? What should I have done if he had just checked?

As I said, I would bet again, making him go all-in. What about that?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

If he checks turn you just bet again.


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Good fold in my opinion. This is the type of board that would hit for villain. Tough to fold an overpair here, but it's the right move.


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kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

Seems like I'm the only person who wants to call here which means I am probably wrong so don't believe me too much.

I don't really expect fish to play strong hands from flop like this which makes me exclude most of these. This leaves us with J4s, few strong combos from flop and random drawy hands that he decided to play like this. Fish sometimes like to bluff with this call oop/donk line when they don't want to fold so weaker hands are definitely possible (note that he is last to act on flop; if he wasn't, I wouldn't be saying these things). Against this range I'm happy to call my QQ, even against two pair we have 12 outs.


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Jaissica
Joined: 10.02.2009

I'm with you Kriko! I'm snapping this one off :)

Originally posted by robin261187
CO: 102 BB (VPIP: 64.71, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)

This is why.

I seem to be going mostly against the grain lately on this forum though. Maybe I'm still stuck in 2012.

@Robin - if your standard raise pre is 3BB, I absolutely love your exploitative increase to 6 here with CO and BB behind. :f_thumbsup:


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