AQ - TP good kicker vs. flopraise

After 55 hands a fish shouldn't be unknown... Postflop agression, flop raise, I would look at those at least. Based from his preflop stats he doesn't seem like a passive one, so without further info I'm not planning to fold this.

I feel much nitty

Don't feel

I don't see him raising less than two pairs he could have AJ, 55 even A5 in his range.
But I would call flop and decide on turn. Without J♠: I would go broke OTF.

You cannot *go broke* with 100BB+ versus a 40BB stack -- only he can go broke!

You say *assuming* he rather check-calls with his entire range? You have 55 hands on this player! Given his high VPIP you should have had a number of opportunities to see how he plays after the Flop and do no need to guess based on his *recreational* status.
UTG has also 3-bet 12% of hands so is not entirely passive -- he will raise what he thinks is the best hand.

A PFR of 11% comfortably includes AJ and JJ. Many recreational players like to limp AA -- but he could have LRR.

I am not folding to a min-raise here -- he is going to have to fire at least 2 streets to get me off TP -- folding here is uber-nitty.

The board is very dry -- so UTG has no sensible draws to semi-bluff with -- this is either total air (including a lot of PP that want to be bluffs) trying to represent a big Ace -- or it is AA/A5/55 -- at least is should be those hands. Of course he is not playing real ranges

As AJ and JJ should raise pre (position does not matter) this looks like a WA/WB situtation for you. Although versus A5 you do have a reasonable number of outs (any J or Q and the board running out something like 88).

Call the min-raise. Evaluate the Turn.
I check-call a small bet maybe fold to a bet 75%+ pot. In-between -- marginal so maybe flip a coin or kick the cat and see what noise it makes...
By calling Flop you give him the chance to give up his bluff or improve in a few ways (gutshot draws and the Jack pairing). He may just min bet the Turn.
This does mean you will need to think some more during this hand...

Good hand to post -- as it is a situation that crops up fairly regularly -- and is a basis for understanding how to play medium strength hands in position.

Originally posted by poompah
The board is very dry -- so UTG has no sensible draws to semi-bluff with --

He has, all KQ/KT/QT, maybe even 32s/43s/42s. But I've seen so many stuff from various fish, that made no sense, like raising here TPs, Jx, 5x, or some PPs as you say, even pure air, because he just felt like it...

He has, all KQ/KT/QT, maybe even 32s/43s/42s.

Agreed -- by sensible I meant those with a decent amount of outs versus an Ace type hand -- and without including other Wacky Races holdings (such as those you mention). Clearly if we read UTG can do that then folding is out of the question.

I do think that many players with this profile will basically see the Ace as an obvious scare card -- then think that is what *you* might also be thinking -- *so we bluffs him* just to see. There is a logic to it of sorts.

If we call here, villain will have a little less than a psb on turn. Are we calling there too?

To be honest -- I have a hard time folding TPGK for a quarter-stack (on the Turn) versus this type of player -- on a board ripe for overplayed TP.
It's worth evaluating based on the actual card and also to look for some timing tell -- like a quick shove.
If I feel he looks strong then maybe fold -- it's marginal -- otherwise a small bet or a check and I feel pretty good about my hand.

You are going to see some Penelope Pitstop plays often enough to feel ok with losing 1 medium-sized pot, if so.

This is an interesting situation. Maybe we should call call turn too.

I'd opt for folding OOP here.

If we will not call the turn bet, we should fold OTF.

I don't think we can fold here without info, although it's quite uncomfortable.

Better option would be to mincbet flop, and if he just calls, pot turn, push river. Plus if he raises flop after our minbet, then I'm much more comfortable to call him down.

I'd opt for folding OOP here.

Stack to Pot Ratio is low which negates the positional disadvantage considerably -- because Villain has less chips/options to use against Hero.

If UTG is really clever (!) he knows this and his bet sizing is going to sucker me in. He probably isn't that smart.
He is not passive either -- so the raise is not exactly DefCon 1.

Yes, true man.