PLO100 - AT96ss

I would check-call the river. As you said, KK is pretty much the only hand we are afraid here. It is in his range, but he has a lot more that are pretty much air otr.

I don't think check-fold is an option here, so it's between c-c and shove. If he has a boat, it doesn't matter which one you choose. If you shove, I think his calling range is pretty much those boats so it doesn't work as valuebet. And it doesn't work as bluff. With check-call you give him an opportunity to bluff his weaker hands.

As the flop goes checked through, I wouldn't go for c-raise on the turn. Quite often it goes again checked. And when you check-raise it is quite obvious that you have straight (or really strong combo) and opponents just fold their hand(s).

Probably a check/ crycall on the river as played. Based on stats and reads on your opponent.

x/r turning is definitly an interesting option but i'm afraid you don't get enought bets from other hands then ATxx. Obviously you are in great shape against these hands but the frequency you run into these hand is not high enough imo.

You ran into a terrible river but the only value hand i see here that beats u is KKxx.

Then again i never made it to PLO100. So my analysis might be a bit off.

@Kyyberi what "air" OTR do you think calls the turn? I think we get called by T9, Sets and 2P. T9 most likely doesn't bet the river (at least chances are). Two pair don't need to bet river as well as they have SDV and valuetown themselves against better hands and Sets aka full houses bet the river. That's why I bet river myself since I think that there is no air but at least some hero calls as mentioned. Still a close one. By betting into 3 people OTT looks strong either way.

rulaZ, you think that villain hero calls river with KQ? When hero bets turn into 3 people and fires the river? Yes it looks suspicious as hero shouldn't have a lot of full houses (would hero bet dry KK ott when first to act?) but bet turn, bet river is a pretty strong line.

T9 is one of the hands we can easily get value from. But on the other hand there are all the combodraws with 2p+fd and gutshot+fd that might bluff the river.

To make a profitable valuebet we need to beat over 50% of villains calling range. I don't have PJ available at the moment so I can't check if he has T9 more often than full house, but I would think T9 could be a bit more probable. So if we bet might be +EV. I missed T9 from his calling range previously.

Question on the other hand is if check-call is more +EV than betting. With PJ it could be easily checked the EV of a shove versus EV of a bluff catch.

Since you are the one with the Pj expertise, could you do that calculation if you have access to it?

Yes, when I get home and have time. Looks like it goes to weekend.

ok thanks no hurries, this spot is nothing of utter most importance.

I wouldn't xr turn with a AT:9x

I think xcing river is good with a AT:6x I don't think T9xx calls river without boat blockers and that kinda T9 usually bets flop (to raise PF3w has to be pretty connected in the first place). Against a reg, we need to protect checking range, so if we vb boats, AT+pair blockers we've no protection

Ok, I played with PokerJuice a bit. Preflop I gave him RFI12% range, as he pots it instead of free flop.

On the flop he checks, so I would assume he doesn't have QJ+ or AQKT.

On the turn he calls a big bet when hero bets against 3 players. He could have AT and waiting to bluff flushing/pairing rivers, as he probably thinks hero has ATxx always. So his calling range is KK+ (KK, AT, T9), 2 pairs with K and fd.

On the river with those assumptions he has:
Boat 44%¨
AT 35%
T9 19%

If he has AKQT in his flop checking range, river ranges doesn't really change.