Originally posted by briccius
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
BB ($44.31)
Hero (UTG) ($95.83)
MP ($30.69)
CO ($63.79)
Button ($78.19)
SB ($48.93)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with J
, 10
Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.50) 3, J
, K (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, SB raises to $5.75, Hero calls $4.25
Turn: ($14) 2
(2 players)
SB bets $9.75, Hero calls $9.75
River: ($33.50) 2
(2 players)
SB bets $32.68 (All-In), Hero?
No stats or reads on opponent, except that he was 1-tabling.
Wow, this spot is gross. Intuitively I want to fold, but then again the villain has so few value hands here. But then again, does your average villain on these limits really run a bluff here? Lets check hand combos:
Pocket 3's is the only obvious value hand here imo. 3 combos. Lets say he doesn't 3b JJ here, as you're deep it makes total sense, not sure if NL25 players don't have an auto 3b whenever they see a premium though? Lets also add 1 combo of KK for this reason. There is two posible KJs hands he could hold - K♣:J♣: and K♥:J♥:. Flop and turn could def be KJs, but the river is debatable as many NL25 will probably get afraid of the paired board and the possible AA. Lets give him 1 combo of KJs. As we're not sure if he is a fish or not he might also have hands like J3o, so lets give him a few combos of random junk. Playing one table might indicate him being a fish, so lets keep it simple and give him 4 combos of KJo to cover up for trash hands. 1 combo of slowplayed AA as well.
3 combos 33, 1 combo JJ (we block rest), 1 combo KK, 1 combos KJs, 4combos KJo, 1 combo AA. That's 11 value combos.
If he's running a semi-bluff that missed his most likely holdings are: T9s, QTs, AQs, AQo, Axd, 67-89dd. I do think most villains who opt for the check raise with hands like 67dd, T9ss and AQo will shut down on turn a lot. So lets round up some combos that would 'make sense' for villain to run the bluff with. QTs=3combos, Axd=9 combos. I very much doubt he'll play all these this way so lets cut them in half. ~5 combos.
So 11 value combos vs 5 bluff combos. Pot is 66,2. We need to call 33,7. Approx 2:1. 11/5=2,2. We lose! But throwing in just one more bluff combo and we're on 1.8 aka call is profitable. Remove one value combo and we're break even.
All in all I think you need to have a feel for how pots like these are played on the stake you're on. What's the current 'standard'/paradigm? As it's probably somewhat close I'd opt for a fold cause I'm conservative in these spots myself (why take the unnecessary swings when it's a level you can crush in a ton of other areas?)
Then again - the only hand that makes perfect sense for villain is 33, for previously mentioned reasons. So weighing that against the question - "does villains on NL25 really bluff here, in all honesty?" might make the decission easy as well?
Not sure at all, tough spot. But I'd lean towards fold.
that villain has certainly wished for. AQs beats our middle pair in terms of odds.
