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Folding a set on the river?

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diminem99
Joined: 06.04.2015

Hi everyone,

I am facing an annoying shove on the river.
Do we beat enough to justify a call here? Can I fold a set here?

PokerStars - €0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.62, PFR: 21.40, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 275)
SB: 100.4 BB (VPIP: -, PFR: -, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
CO: 95.4 BB (VPIP: 14.44, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 90)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♣ J♠

CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 6♥ J♦ 2♠
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (6.4 BB, 2 players) T♥
Hero bets 3.8 BB, CO calls 3.8 BB

River: (14 BB, 2 players) A♠
Hero bets 8.6 BB, CO raises to 88.6 BB and is all-in, Hero ???


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18 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

MP2 42.86% 42.86% 0.00% JsJc
MP3 57.14% 57.14% 0.00% AJs-ATs, KQs, AJo-ATo, KQo


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

What range do you put villain on? His raise is huge compared to the pot, we would need something like 70% equity?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We do not have that much...


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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

Pre and Flop is fine. But I don't mind betting the turn larger (3/4 pot minimum) to maximally charge draws and Tx.

On the river.. unfortunately we are looking into the nuts way too often. I also don't see sets or twopairs playing this way a lot.

MP2 42.86% 42.86% 0.00% JsJc
MP3 57.14% 57.14% 0.00% AJs-ATs, KQs, AJo-ATo, KQo

--> Pushing range is too wide imo.. especially the ATo-Part.

Just fold in a spot like this.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I tried to give a wide range. Some players can push AT, some don't.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by nitrol
We do not have that much...

I agree. This looks like a fold.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Clear fold. ..


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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

Fold vs this sizing.


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diminem99
Joined: 06.04.2015

Hi everyone and thank you for the feedback!


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StruxXx
Joined: 18.12.2015

I can not stress how many times I've called this situations knowing that Im behind... Do NOT call this against regs 14/13 on micros!


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luizfsp
Joined: 14.11.2013

fold is ok


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diminem99
Joined: 06.04.2015

Hi guys,

Yeah, looks like a fold. As struxXx says, it's the kind of situation where you know you are behind but still call.

Had the pot been bigger on the riv then maybe we could have called, but there is no way he is risking all his chips in a small pot like this without the nuts.


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AXSPIRAL
Joined: 06.03.2011

thats very ugly. i think folding here is right but very very hard to do..


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Fold. You'll have nuts here often enough to pick him off if he 's playing tricks. Also, let others call him down and extract reads that way.


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Ciufciuf5
Joined: 15.06.2013

Originally posted by la55i
What range do you put villain on? His raise is huge compared to the pot, we would need something like 70% equity?

Equity needed is always <= 50% due to the formula bet / (pot + bet)

I think you lose value by not 3betting pre, he is nitty but JJ plays fine with his calling range.
As played river as other user said is a fold :(


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by Ciufciuf5

Originally posted by la55i
What range do you put villain on? His raise is huge compared to the pot, we would need something like 70% equity?

Equity needed is always <= 50% due to the formula bet / (pot + bet)

Yes, how silly of me :) We need 42% to call this off. If we give villain a wide shoving range we barely have that much. I would say we most likely face a straight here. Folding seems still the right option for me.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by Ciufciuf5

Originally posted by la55i
What range do you put villain on? His raise is huge compared to the pot, we would need something like 70% equity?

Equity needed is always <= 50% due to the formula bet / (pot + bet)

I think you lose value by not 3betting pre, he is nitty but JJ plays fine with his calling range.
As played river as other user said is a fold :(
Of course we can 3 bet. Villain here is a bit tight and this maybe the reason for just calling...


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