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97s - Strong draw on the turn - Call or fold?

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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $32.85 (VPIP: 26.84, PFR: 20.77, 3Bet Preflop: 7.63, Hands: 321)
BB: $29.47 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG: $34.91 (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 17.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
MP: $52.55 (VPIP: 28.37, PFR: 22.84, 3Bet Preflop: 8.19, Hands: 595)
CO: $31.34 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 9♣ 7♣

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.56, Hero calls $0.56, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.47, 2 players) 8♣ Q♦ J♣
CO bets $1.05, Hero calls $1.05

Turn: ($3.57, 2 players) 5♦
CO bets $2.55, Hero ...

Villain is a reg. Nothing too special about his stats.

Pre I thought that the hand plays better as a call with a large SPR.

Flop: He bets pretty big (less foldequity) and we are not drawing to the nuts. Thus, I guess call > raise.

Turn: We get 2,4 : 1 / 29%

With Equilab I put in following range he could barrel:


Board: Q♣J♣8♦ 4♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    25.34%  25.23%   0.11% { 9c7c }
MP3    74.66%  74.54%   0.11% { JJ+, 88, AQs, KQs, Q8s+, J8s, AcKc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Tc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, 6c4c, 5c4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }

It's close, but still a call assuming we have some implieds on the river, right? Correct me if I'm wrong...


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21 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

It is close but I think fold would be better. I'm not sure if you have much implied odds. If villain holds AQ for example and you hit your flush OTR, he checks and probably folds when you bet. Also you have some reverse implied odds. There are better flushes and if you hit T, AK crushes you. If you hit, you could still be dominated and this hand could get very expensive.

I would 3bet or fold pre. This hand works well as 3bet bluff. Yes these speculative hands benefit from high stack to pot ratio but still, suited one gapper is quite shit.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We have 12 outs and we should call.


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Naixy
Joined: 23.04.2013

Dont like the call preflop, as played on the turn I believe you have a close give the implied odds. You could also raise in either flop or turn as a bluff.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

How do we have so much implied odds? And what about reverse implied odds? I think those are huge with our hand and villains possible range. What if we hit T or a club, do we play for stacks?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Of course. Otherwise, fold turn.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think there is too much better flush draws and AK out there that our reverse implied odds are big and we do not have so good implied odds. That's why I like folding turn more.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

There is always that possibility, when you do not hold the Nut FD...
But as we have good number if outs, we can call. We have equity that is not ok to be folded that easy.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

I am 3-betting preflop (small), and I fire once (small again) postflop . I'd probably take the free card on turn. [This is all in agro-mode.]


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srna10
Joined: 17.12.2010

As played i would call turn bet, there are plenty of hands that hero is ahed if complete straight or flush.
Imo, flop raise would be better choice. ofc, hero is folding in case of reraise and if not he would see free turn card.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by srna10
As played i would call turn bet, there are plenty of hands that hero is ahed if complete straight or flush.
Imo, flop raise would be better choice. ofc, hero is folding in case of reraise and if not he would see free turn card.

No Hero is not raise-folding because it is a waste of good equity. If you want to bluff at it, bluff cheaper, i.e. begin preflop by 3-betting.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

With 12 outs I prefer passive flop play as we cannot call a push.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by nitrol
With 12 outs I prefer passive flop play as we cannot call a push.

I like this more too.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

12 outs - passive
15 outs- aggressive or passive, depends on player style.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think that sounds like a good rule of thumb.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

It is in this site strategy articles.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Okay. I didn't know that.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Listen to me and you will get better. :)


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Good to know I'll do that.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Now, go play some tables. :)


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