blind battle: JJ vs over shove river

When villain checks turn he is capped. You should bet river after his turn check.
When you check river you show weakness and you are probably folding a lot there, so villain will bluff a lot.

He would definitely bet his good hands OTT. And what would be the point of a value shove OTR when you check 2 times, it's clear you are not calling.
So when you check OTR, just call his shove

You seem to be very weak as you neither 4bet nor showed any agression postflop, so he might turn anything like A hi into a bluff as played and I think I would call. I mean, he could have slowplayed QQ+ which would strange, I think its more likely he 3-bets a lot on BB vs SB so he will have a lot of Overcards and draws on this board that he might chek on the turn with and decide to turn it into a bluff on the river as you seem pretty weak.
I think the problem with this hand is that you make it harder for yourself as you need to. First thing, take a look at your 3-bet stats. I don't think those stats you use to evaluate your river action don't help you at all. I mean, I can't see your sample size but the 3-bet stats (which I would take a look at first when facing a 3-bet) shows that he is 3-betting pretty agressively in BB vs SB situations so I would consider either 4-betting preflop and getting it in (and think about including some bluffs in my 4-betting range against this guy BvB that I can 4-bet/fold), or go for the ch/r on the flop if the texture is good.
I think this hand was underplayed, looks to me like you might be on scared money or really uncomfortable playing 3-bet pots.

Good luck!

Thank you guys a lot. Seems like you are right - after his check on the turn he is capped and i have to call.
LeSavant, you are partially right - it s not about scared money, it is mainly ablout the beginning of the session - if I loose a stack at the beginning of the session, I could start steaming and spew more chip, so I decided if I don't know what to do then best decision is to fold.

Based on the fact it's the micros and villain has a high W$SD, he could have made his set OTT or OTR. I think folding was OK but surely betting OTR was better.
An AFR of 35 is quite OK IMO.

Originally posted by tiltmonk
Thank you guys a lot. Seems like you are right - after his check on the turn he is capped and i have to call.
LeSavant, you are partially right - it s not about scared money, it is mainly ablout the beginning of the session - if I loose a stack at the beginning of the session, I could start steaming and spew more chip, so I decided if I don't know what to do then best decision is to fold.

I do not think you should call this river overbet. I think you should bet river and fold vs a raise.

The problem with protection betting on the turn is that I will be committed. Pot is about 12+12 + 15+15= 54
Also, betting turn and checking river when the draw missed will be also a weakness, seems like my opponent understand it well (he shoved the river wheen the blank comes in).
So, if we are betting turn we definitely have to bet river (if no scary card comes in) and vs shove I will have to call.

4 bet preflop SB vs BB and call a shove.

Sorry, this popup does not show it
His 5B range is 1% - so, there I suppose, we can't play for the whole stack preflop vs his 5b
But I agree, that 4B, probably is preferred way to play vs this opponent.

How big is the hand sample ?

it is about 10K hands.

For once, you need a really big sample size for his 5-bet stats to be accurate, again, I dunno how many hands. Still if he has 1% 5bet, so what? It basically gives you a lot of fold equity and also you've still got better pockets in your range. As mentioned you can also bluff 4-bet some hands if he is folding too much on 4-bets. So if you start adapting on his looser 3-bet range he will have to react by either 3-betting less or start shoving a wider range.
As played I had another idea, you might bet the river like really small so you might get value from weaker hands that want to see a showdown, while you still give him the opportunity to turn his hand into a bluff if he's busted.
I would never bet/fold like suggested, the pot odds simply would not allow to fold after a bet, if you bet 1/2 pot, you'd need to call ~2.20$ to win 7.70$ pot while he might still think he has fold equity and the river busted all draws.. so if we would win ~25% we would still have good +EV call

Btw. your equity against his range is 56% preflop and on the flop its 63%. On the river you've got to assume his range he does this with loos different. I tried some different scenarios where he either 3-bets more broadway or more Pockets. Either way I assumed he will bluff his worst hands which is K hi as a bluff and assumed he would do this with strong hands like a set or overpair and check behind weak made hands like a pair or even A hi. In this case your equity looks bad in either scenario you drop to about 40% equity. The question is how many bluffs would you give him, would he turn A hi into a bluff. This is why I think you put yourself into a tough spot where you need to make assumptions, instead of making it easy for yourself and tough for the opponent.

- So I would put it in pre flop or on the flop against this opponent (would be nice to hear some other oppinion on that!)
- I would go for a bluff induce line as played only against opponents that are very agressive (you can also ch/shove turn then)
- I think you should work on your mental game if you get affected by loosing a stack (even if the play was bad you need to put it away until you finished playing or it will have severe effects on your game).

It doesn't matter what villains WTSD or W$SD is. If he has a tendency to exploit players who play like this, it wouldn't show in his WTSD since everyone will fold almost 100%, just as you did here. You appear super weak and I would say you are folding 100% of your range when you check 3 times, so villain can (and he should) bluff you. Imo he is not planning to see a showdown here.

BTW:
Earlier you said it is not "scared money", but you didn't want to call because it was the start of the session and you fear you will tilt if you lose. This is a mental leak anyway and should be fixed In this kind of spots just think what is the correct move in your opinion. If you lose, think that you couldn't have done anything better and that was the best move, and move on.

Originally posted by la55i
BTW:
Earlier you said it is not "scared money", but you didn't want to call because it was the start of the session and you fear you will tilt if you lose. This is a mental leak anyway and should be fixed In this kind of spots just think what is the correct move in your opinion. If you lose, think that you couldn't have done anything better and that was the best move, and move on.

Originally posted by LeSavant
- I think you should work on your mental game if you get affected by loosing a stack (even if the play was bad you need to put it away until you finished playing or it will have severe effects on your game).

Thank you guys a lot!

Originally posted by tiltmonk
it is about 10K hands.

This is a nice sample so we cannot stack off.

I still think we can't base that decision on villains W$SD since he can exploit this kind of play often and it wouldn't show in his stats.

Of course you do not have to watch the wtsd stat . AF is more important here. Why is he x turn and overbet shoving river.

Because hero checks 3 times and by overbetting villains is making sure hero doesn't bluff catch even with that JJ.
If villain had a value hand, he would bet very small to get some calls. Here hero reps so weak that playing like that with strong hand makes absolutely no sense, this is a bluff.

Maybe so, but he maybe fought something in river.
AA/KK is played this way too.

Hero isn't calling that bet even with overpair... If AA or KK is played this way, it is played stupidly.
AA or KK should definitely bet OTT. And as played he should bet those a lot smaller to get even some calls.
This line produces so many folds especially because hero seems weak and capped that playing AA/KK this way makes zero sense.