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JTs

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mistralx
Joined: 13.08.2014

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 106.8 BB
SB: 104.8 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 24.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 52)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.75, PFR: 17.50, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 81)
UTG: 111.8 BB (VPIP: 19.44, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 38)
MP: 102.2 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♣ T♣

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 2♣ Q♣ K♠
BB checks, UTG bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB, BB calls 6 BB

Turn: (27.4 BB, 3 players) 4♣
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 17.2 BB, BB raises to 91 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 73.8 BB

River: (209.4 BB, 2 players) 5♥

I need ~35% to call.
I have, according to these ranges, 36%:

Stół: 2♣Q♣K♠ 4♣
       Equity  Wygrana  Podział
MP2    36.16%   36.16%    0.00% { JcTc }
MP3    63.84%   63.84%    0.00% { Ac9c, Kc9c, Ac8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, 6c5c, Ac3c }

I think I will not make much money on this spot, but it is a call, isn't it?


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6 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

This is an unusual spot where ranges are useless and "guess if villain is bluffing" is better. I'd call.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We call preflop and flop to hit that flush. We can call.


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oI2ange
Joined: 21.07.2015

Well played on all streets. I think your simulation is a bit tight and he still might yet go with it with a hand like KcQx or AcJx.


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

I think over push seems pretty bluffy. I don't know why opponent over shove with nuts on the turn. Seriously, it mostly seems like Nut flush draw with a pair. AcKx,AcQx or kind of set. Yes, it could be AcXc, but why why why? Why to push here with nuts? XRT and donk river will be enough. I would definitely call here.


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StruxXx
Joined: 18.12.2015

If you add up badly played set of duces your equity will rise a bit.
Im never folding this. Cold deck if you've lost it.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008