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JJ 150 deep

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rorro1986
Joined: 10.01.2009

$0.25/$0.50Zoom No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
Stacks:
UTG Hero ($200.90) 402bb
UTG+1 ($50.50) 101bb
CO ($90.35) 181bb
BTN ($79.15) 158bb
SB ($69.84) 140bb
BB ($108.37) 217bb
Pre-Flop: (0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG J♥: J♣:

Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: J♠: Q♦: 6♠: ($3.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.67, Hero raises to $8, BTN calls $5.33
Turn: A♣: ($19.75, 2)
Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14
River: 8♥: ($47.75, 2)
Hero checks, BTN goes all-in $55.65, Hero calls $55.65
Final Pot: $159.05

I think villian thinks I never have KT and its profitable for him shove his floats, missed FD/SD or maybe 66
Should I be scared of straights? villian kinda unknown and flatted BUvsUTG 1out of 9 times


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5 replies
duder1n0
Joined: 07.07.2009

I think Villain's river range could be something like this (just an assumption obviously, being deep I thought he could call wider on the suited side, but of course he can 3bet hands like 54s or A2s): QQ,66,AQs+,ATs,KTs,T9s,KsQs,QsTs,As9s,Ks9s,Qs9s,As8s,Ts8s,9s8s,As7s,9s7s,8s7s,As5s,As4s,5s4s,As3s,As2s,AQo+

If you jam yourself, it's a question what he calls with. If he calls all combos of AQ, then it is a thin valueshove, but I think it's quite unrealistic:

Board: Q♦J♠6♠ A♣ 8♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    52.17%  52.17%   0.00% { JhJc }
BU     47.83%  47.83%   0.00% { QQ, 66, AQs, KTs, T9s, AQo }

Villain has 9 combos of AQ (assuming he calls AQo pre), and he has to call 8 out of 9 for us to be at least break even (I would almost snapfold AQ in his shoes based on limit tendencies).
So I don't think we can push here.

If we check, he can jam his sets/straights for value. Problem is that his nutflushdraws got TP, and most players don't turn Ax into bluff in this spot.
After he jams, potodds are 35%. AsXs/8sXs he probably won't bluff (or at least with lower frequency), so there are Ks9s/9s7s/5s4s left. If he jams all 3 combos of those, then we have a breakeven call, but I think it's a very optimistic scenario:

Board: Q♦J♠6♠ A♣ 8♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    35.29%  35.29%   0.00% { JhJc }
BU     64.71%  64.71%   0.00% { QQ, 66, KTs, T9s, Ks9s, 9s7s, 5s4s }

Some players could checkback even 66 sometimes, and some of them don't even have 54s/97s/K9s in their preflop range...

So strange as it sounds, being 158bb deep, I think check/folding is a reasonable option here. 8h is actually a bad river card for us, as T9s also gets there.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

I would lead OTF. Try to get it in from there.
As played, I like bet small OTR 30-40% and fold vs aggression.


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pisiattu
Joined: 01.04.2010

I prefer 3barrel here, as played wp for me, he hasn't busted imho, but if you check he can shove 66 e two pair


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

This is the strangest played hand... :)
Bet /bet/bet is my choice here.
As played b/f river.


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pisiattu
Joined: 01.04.2010

bf river with a psb? why? what size do you use?


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