9 max SnG 0.5$ hands AQo bubble

Joined: 06.05.2015

02.08.2016, 23:17 0

PokerStars - $0.44+$0.06|100/200 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 34.67 BB (VPIP: 52.27, PFR: 22.73, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
Hero (CO): 14.15 BB
BTN: 14.04 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 45)
SB: 4.65 BB (VPIP: 14.04, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 114)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ Q♣

Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, SB raises to 4.65 BB and is all-in, BB calls 3.65 BB, Hero calls 2.65 BB

Flop: (13.95 BB, 3 players) 6♥ 5♦ 8♦
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (13.95 BB, 3 players) A♠
BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, BB raises to 30.02 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 6.5 BB and is all-in

River: (32.95 BB, 3 players) J♠

My logic OTT was that the guy with such stats could have done what he did to pretty much squeeze me out of the pot with a weaker hand or if he had a better hand than a SS would loose a I get a third place and ITM. If I folded and a SS triple up I would have been a SS and under big pressure.

Reply

Quote

5 replies

slippyjim

Joined: 07.10.2011

Posts: 1,093

03.08.2016, 01:01 0

Usually I would just be in push/fold mode here but the SS SB messes things up
ICMizer says shove TT+, AK, but that is based on the BB calling 66+,ATs+,AJo+ and looking at his stats I think he calls wider than that, if I give him 22+,A2+,KT+,QT+,JT then you can only shove QQ+

With the very LAG BS in the BB it is probably just a fold pre, if you raise he is never folding, if you shove he's more than likely calling. The SS makes this a massive ICM situation
I guess once you get to the flop you should be in cheap showdown mode and check the turn and river
As played OTT I wouldnt fold to the raise as you are likely to be ahead of the SB anyway and so get 3rd

Reply

Quote

TomClassy

Joined: 06.05.2015

Posts: 669

03.08.2016, 03:33 0

Yep, that seems weird but we should be folding preflop with a fishy CL on BB

Reply

Quote

SDK1987

Moderator

Joined: 12.11.2008

Posts: 43,850

03.08.2016, 06:26 0

Don’t forget that the BB has most likely a capped range. So the top of his range he would most likely 4bet or shove right away and now you can isolate the short stack with AQ as well on the bubble and I wouldn’t be surprise the BB will still fold a lot in a spot like this and I couldn’t fold AQ and I would shove pre flop here.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Reply

Quote

slippyjim

Joined: 07.10.2011

Posts: 1,093

03.08.2016, 12:02 0

If I was in this spot myself I'm pretty sure I would shove pre, but then I've been making lots of bubble errors recently so I'm not sure

two ways to look at it
The BB is a massive fish so he will call too wide, so great chance to double up
The BB is a massive fish so he will call too wide, so a big chance I lose and bubble

Assume he calls tighter than his VPIP - e.g. 40% AQo has 62.4% against 53% AQo has 63.1% so essentially the same
If you knew the BB was going to call ATC you have 64.4%, which sounds great but 35.6% you bubble when there is a tiny stack still in play.

It's a typical bubble spot and one I'm not totally sure how it's best to play

Reply

Quote

TomClassy

Joined: 06.05.2015

Posts: 669

04.08.2016, 20:37 0

Based on what I recently learned from a bubble strategy videos, I assume it was indeed a fold pre coz of reasonable opponent on BTN who we may put pressure on and he would most likely know that a big stack calls wide and will just suck out the SB in few hands. It is all about the dynamics here, I guess

Reply

Quote