PLO10: Bluff all-in with straight draw

C-bet Flop - 80 (4/5)
C-bet Flop in 3Bet pot - 100 (1/1)
Fold to Raise After c-bet - (no stats)
Fold to bet Turn - 25 (1/4)
Aggression Factor - 1.0/1.7/9

Are these stats Villain's or Hero's?

Originally posted by zagarese
Are these stats Villain's or Hero's?

Villain's...

Do you have a specific question about the hand?

is it normall bluff?

I think it's probably a bad bluff.

But I'd like to hear what a coach has to say.

My reasoning is simply that almost everything that he calls the flop raise with beats you and very large part of that will call the turn as well. Mostly overpairs but also some random sevens.

We have to make assumptions to get soem numbers out of the situation.

I checked his range distribution with PokerJuice assuming he has 3bet oop 15%. On the flop his calling range is AJ+, T98. I thnk he might be calling your raise with trips and fullhouses too so we can't exclude those from his range as it's HU.

On the turn you basicly want him to fold his non-trips+ range. 65% of his range is either a draw or overpair, with those assumptions.

Problem is on the flop. With 15% 3bet oop range he has AJ+, T98 there 65% of the times. Your bluff has to work there almost 55% of the times, so you don't quite have the required folding equity. Again on the turn when you almost pot it, you would need over 30% success rate which you barely got.

I would not raise that board HU especially when opponent has raised his aggression towards you.