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AK vs River Pot Bet

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Arabadjiev
Joined: 26.06.2008

Hi,

Will you be able to find a fold on this river?
According to me the two pair, set combos are really limited on this board and the lines followed.

What do you think?
Thanks.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
Stacks:
UTG Player7 (5,092) 25bb
UTG+1 Player8 (5,398) 27bb
MP1 Player9 (2,612) 13bb
MP2 Player1 (5,610) 28bb
MP3 Hero (8,978) 45bb
CO Player3 (12,798) 64bb
BTN Player4 (11,901) 60bb
SB Player5 (3,073) 15bb
BB Player6 (9,683) 48bbBlinds: 100/200 Ante 25
Pre-Flop: (525, 9 players) Hero is MP3 A♦ K♣

4 folds, Hero raises to 444, 3 folds, Player6 calls 244

Flop: Q♥ 4♣ 8♠ (1,213, 2 players)
Player6 checks, Hero checks
Turn: K♦ (1,213, 2)
Player6 bets 606, Hero calls 606
River: 3♠ (2,425, 2)
Player6 bets 2,425, Hero calls 2,425
Final Pot: 7,275


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7 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

It’s weird he’s pot betting the river and I don’t see much weaker hands he would bet like this.
So I need to have reads on him if I would call here.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Dominik12345
Joined: 24.12.2014

Why havent you done a cbet?


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Arabadjiev
Joined: 26.06.2008

The main reason for not doing a CBET is because he is not folding his pairs, second pairs and Qx hands. We are way ahed the rest of his range anyways hence do not see the reason for a CBET.

Do you agree?


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Rihard4a
Joined: 08.09.2010

I do not agree with checking on the flop. Just because he doesn't fold with pairs on the flop, is not really a logical reason to check because nobody nowadays is folding a pair to a single cbet on the flop. And he is going to have any of those hands only 33% of the time. So that means he is still folding on the flop 67% of the time. And a 50% cbet on the flop has to work only 33% of the time. You are not playing a cash game were you have to balance your range. In tournament picking up these small pots is the most important thing because at the end they all add up. And in tournaments it is also very important to deny equity by betting even with mediocre hands. Your check on the flop would only make sense if you had A♥:K♥: because then you have more cards that help you on the turn to make a delayed cbet or stand against a turn lead of your opponent. When you check, you essentially forfeit your hand/pot and let your opponent play perfect against you, while you are the one making mistake.


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Lefty85
Joined: 08.06.2008

Originally posted by Rihard4a
When you check, you essentially forfeit your hand/pot and let your opponent play perfect against you, while you are the one making mistake.

I do not agree at all. First of all, villain will float all sorts of gutshots and backdoors so he will not fold 67% of the time. By c-betting and just giving up you are just handing over the pot to villains floats, also villain will just fold all his garbage.

By checking you will keep his garbage in the hand, you will have the chance to improve on the turn. You get him to barrel with air on the turn, you do not blow up the pot with ace high. You can't be bluffed of the best hand on the flop. Plenty of reason to check.

I'm just saying that checking behind here is definitely not terrible.


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Rihard4a
Joined: 08.09.2010

Originally posted by Lefty85

Originally posted by Rihard4a
When you check, you essentially forfeit your hand/pot and let your opponent play perfect against you, while you are the one making mistake.

I do not agree at all. First of all, villain will float all sorts of gutshots and backdoors so he will not fold 67% of the time. By c-betting and just giving up you are just handing over the pot to villains floats, also villain will just fold all his garbage.

By checking you will keep his garbage in the hand, you will have the chance to improve on the turn. You get him to barrel with air on the turn, you do not blow up the pot with ace high. You can't be bluffed of the best hand on the flop. Plenty of reason to check.

I'm just saying that checking behind here is definitely not terrible.

Have you ever used Flopzilla? Well if you are making such a bold statement, then I assume that you haven't. Your analysis suits cash games situation, this is a tournament.


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marcepoker17
Joined: 21.06.2011

I think here u need to know oppo. Is he a calling and flatting from bb with Q4 Q8 Q3 K4 K8 K3? (I can't see the bi so I have no idea what kind of players u are against).
Without infos I would cb 480-550, I understand a check if u knw hes aggr and check/r often.
As played I would call turn for sure and call river only if I'm not thinking he is a calling passive or a reg/multytab.. :)


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