Consider folding mid set (second nuts) on flop against a NIT or not?

I would call the shove. Villain needs to have only 2 combos of AA in his range here and you already have 40% equity. That is enough. If he has only 1 combo of AK on top of that it is 50/50.

Btw I moved your hand to our hand discussion board.

I'm afraid you will be in the same position like me if you call... check/raise all-in at 170bb deep is only 1 thing with this kind of players... the nuts! I mean if he had AA or AK he would havve bet normally onthe flop, most of the the check the flop only with top set and this is the case. I have tremendous recall and I can feel these situations is like I calculate them by instict. Although I seldom trust that instict and fall into the trap you just fell.

The thing is that you need only around 30% equity to call.
You can't know villains range 100% sure and as I said even if there is only 2 combos of AA you will have already 40%. Putting villain on KK only and thinking that is 100% correct every single time is wrong.
Poker is a weird game because sometimes you have to call and expect to lose but on the long run if you call in this spot I think average villain will have some AA in his range and you will be profitable.

Average villain sure, this guy never!! I know these nits, I take their money everyday the hardway... I play 40% of hands against their tight range and the reason I take their money in the end is because they depend more on maths more than other psycological aspects of the game, same way you do now, they see their HUD and play according to that, but NL poker is not science, is an art and is better to rely on your instict if that works better for you. In that case I didn't and I had to be lucky to win the hand!!!

I would fold pre-flop this hand, because you aren’t playing deep enough to call for set value only.

As played I would bet the flop as well for value, but now he’s check raising he should change AA in to a bluff to make a call profitable, because with his line he gets only action of KK and maybe TT. I don’t think tight players will do this and is folding better, but tough to do for sure.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I actually had set value there... in fact, this is the perfect situation to setmine!

I had to call $1.30 for a pot of $3.30 + $15.13 (that was the effective stack) so it is $1.30 for $18.43. The amount I had to call was about 7% of the money I'm about to win if I hit the set and I have 12% chance to make a set on the flop so that makes this call very profitable....

Originally posted by MaNiaC86
I actually had set value there... in fact, this is the perfect situation to setmine!

I had to call $1.30 for a pot of $3.30 + $15.13 (that was the effective stack) so it is $1.30 for $18.43. The amount I had to call was about 7% of the money I'm about to win if I hit the set and I have 12% chance to make a set on the flop so that makes this call very profitable....

No, your implied odds (18.43:1.30, about 14:1) aren't nearly as good as you think. He might not cooperate and pay off every time. You could still call if you think he is all but commited, but forget about "very" profitable.

Also, there are decent nits around. That is, there are nits fully capable of bluffing. It comes with a nitty reputation that they can represent hands easier than LAGs. This is just a general observation, nothing particular to this hand. Nits not bluffing cannot be found above micros.

I do not like calling preflop either. Too expensive to set mine and feel awkward on high card boards...
We can call the push though.

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by MaNiaC86
I actually had set value there... in fact, this is the perfect situation to setmine!

I had to call $1.30 for a pot of $3.30 + $15.13 (that was the effective stack) so it is $1.30 for $18.43. The amount I had to call was about 7% of the money I'm about to win if I hit the set and I have 12% chance to make a set on the flop so that makes this call very profitable....

No, your implied odds (18.43:1.30, about 14:1) aren't nearly as good as you think. He might not cooperate and pay off every time. You could still call if you think he is all but commited, but forget about "very" profitable.

What are you talking about, 14/1 is not enough to setmine? I need only 9/1 to be about even.... and of course I will stack him everytime I hit the set, this guy has Aces or Kings I know that for sure, there is no reason for him to bet against two players when he's at the small blind of a zoom table. Some things are just obvious!!!

And he can't fold Aces or Kings postflop against me, I have a very wild image and I show a lot of bluffs all the time!!! These guys also call me with just Ace high, that's something I have made them to do

How many hands do you have on this guy? The thing is he must have only 1 combo of something other than KK. That is not much and as Yohan said there are decent nits who bluff.

So if you think that these nits do not have even one single combo of AA or something else ever, then it was totally fine. But I still believe that we can not know his range for sure. This nit might not have those but another one with similar stats could bluff 3 combos. We don't know that.

Maybe it is better not to play against these guys at all, or at least maybe you should not cbet here, if you are not willing to play even with mid set

I will stack him everytime I hit te set

I thought you just said that it would be correct to fold here? So you are not stacking him when you hit a set? So when you hit a set and there is A or K or maybe Q on the flop you fold.. So you can't setmine

The fact that I had position and implied odds was prefert for me to call his 4bet. i prefer to call a 4bet by a nit like him than a 3bet for someone that has a wider range. Ias sure that he had Aces or Kings and very rarely Queens. This guy snap 4bet after I 3bet the other one, if he had AK, QQ or JJ he would have take at least 2-3 seconds. Momentum is far more important than anything else and as they say the first thought you have on a hand is more often the right one!
So the first thought I had was that he had AA or KK, then I just couldn't make thright (propably sick fold that only pros make) and I called his shove.

I see here different opinions about the preflop play and this, but for me the post flop play was perfect and I don't change my mind because that's my style.... you see when you have 40% VPIP and pla y very loose aggressive, you want to make the big folds post flop and not preflop, otherwise you don't play loose, you do something else.....

Originally posted by la55i

I will stack him everytime I hit te set

I thought you just said that it would be correct to fold here? So you are not stacking him when you hit a set? So when you hit a set and there is A or K or maybe Q on the flop you fold.. So you can't setmine
Haha no. I mean when he has an pverpair and I hit my set, most of the time I wil stack him.... that is a rare sitiuation that i was consider folding and it was because of the line and the predictibility his style has, although I made the call and it was a bad one!

I guess it is never a fold on the flop - we set mined in deep, our opponent could probably have AK(s),KK+. Also, most of the players play ugly in deep and never think about this. They just play their hand without thinking about deep stack , so your opponent could be like those guys. If I would flop 2d nuts even in deep - it is most of the time no fold.

Originally posted by MaNiaC86

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by MaNiaC86
I actually had set value there... in fact, this is the perfect situation to setmine!

I had to call $1.30 for a pot of $3.30 + $15.13 (that was the effective stack) so it is $1.30 for $18.43. The amount I had to call was about 7% of the money I'm about to win if I hit the set and I have 12% chance to make a set on the flop so that makes this call very profitable....

No, your implied odds (18.43:1.30, about 14:1) aren't nearly as good as you think. He might not cooperate and pay off every time. You could still call if you think he is all but commited, but forget about "very" profitable.

What are you talking about, 14/1 is not enough to setmine? I need only 9/1 to be about even.... and of course I will stack him everytime I hit the set, this guy has Aces or Kings I know that for sure, there is no reason for him to bet against two players when he's at the small blind of a zoom table. Some things are just obvious!!!

And he can't fold Aces or Kings postflop against me, I have a very wild image and I show a lot of bluffs all the time!!! These guys also call me with just Ace high, that's something I have made them to do
Lol:)