Originally posted by piR
I have only 35 hands on the player 24/17. The sample is to small but by ABC player I assume that his opening is tight UTG (including some suited connector maybe).
My 3betting range BTN vs UTG is not balance in NL5. I would only 3bet QQ+ (might include some TT/JJ depending on villain though).
I see, so basicallly you mean his opening range PF is tight. Good, thanks for the info.
It is completely fine (maybe not even 'fine' .. more like 'right'!) to have unbalanced range at these stakes as default. But I would incline to call queens in position, I think it is more +EV than 3betting them vs. UTG. If villain would open from MP or CO we could argue about it more if it is better to call or 3bet .. but here I think calling is much better.
Now as played I think situation is quite crappy already OTF. This flop is close to CANCER and it hits villains range really good since he will be probably calling small and medium PPs and suited broadways (maybe even some suited connectors). What we can say almost for SURE is: he is not bluffing. He is raising for value on the flop mostly. MAYBE he is raising with FDs time to time. How our hand stands against this value range ? I would say pretty poorly. But let's say we peel once. In that case after his bet OTT we are folding 100% of the time, because we are just so much behind so often (also take into mind the turn card is quite bad for us). If I would call the turn however I would check fold the river. But me personally - I would most prolly fold OTF already.
Note: It is also important to take into account we are blocking many FD combos. That means: 1) villains range will be more set heavy than it would be in cases when we are not holding a spade (he can't have AsQs, KsQs, QsJs) 2) what FD he actually does have? AsKs definitely, maybe JsTs, maybe 6s7s, maaaaaaaybe A5s or A3s (but let's say no since he is quite tight). Whatever is the case, we are actually doing so badly against this range (please note I think he will be raising only with best one here, so he won't raise with KsQs for example). Against AsKs you are actually an underdog, you got only 40% :f_o:.
After I saw results I think we can learn from this important thing: If we would be in villains shoes .. we would played the hand most probably the same way with a fair chunk of confidence, especially since we know villain (BTN) doesn't have sets here ! And we are also blocking some combos of AA and KK. That means villain hase more QQ in his range and some other stuff. And we are doing reaaaaaaaaally well against that (we have 54.27%) ... so actually SHOVING OTF could be even better idea since we have drawing hand and we would love to see villain both possible responses: A) fold or B) call with his overpairs. Win win situation for us.
