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NL2 FR: sorrowful river

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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 61.5 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 21)
UTG+1: 95.5 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: 44 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero (MP+1): 100 BB
CO: 40.5 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BTN: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 22.04, PFR: 18.82, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 190)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5♥ 6♥

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 4♠ Q♠ 8♥
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (10 BB, 3 players) 7♣
SB checks, Hero bets 9.5 BB, CO calls 9.5 BB, fold

River: (29 BB, 2 players) 6♠
Hero checks, CO bets 28 BB and is all-in,

Spoiler

fold

CO wins 28 BB

bad fold or good fold?


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6 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

You need 33% to call.

MP2 39.29% 28.57% 10.71% 6h5h
MP3 60.71% 50.00% 10.71% 88-44, 87s, 76s, 65s, 53s+, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs, Ks9s, Qs9s, As8s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Js8s, As7s, Ks7s, Qs7s, Js7s, Ts7s, As6s, Ks6s, Qs6s, Ts6s, As5s, Ks5s, Qs5s, Ts5s, 9s5s, As4s, Ks4s, Js4s, Ts4s, 9s4s, Ks3s, Qs3s, Ks2s, Qs2s

There is some kind of quick range for villain.. I just put some flushes, sets, 2pair, 5x etc... Villain is a fish playing NL2 so he can have pretty much anything.
Agaist that range it would be a call but I still don't hate folding because villains range might be more narrow.


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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

Thank you for the answer. If I give him a range that contains only flushes, 5x and better straights (for the sake of erring on the side of caution), I have to fold by a wide margin, so even if I add a couple bluffs, it won´t become a call:

Board:

Equity Win Tie
MP1 16.67% 0.00% 16.67% 6h5h
CO 83.33% 66.67% 16.67% 55, T9s, 85s, 75s, 65s, 54s, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Js9s, As8s, As7s, 9s7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s

It all hinges on the sets. But I see no reason to assume he would not raise a set by the turn on such a wet board. Instead he calls a potsize turn bet and shoves when the flush completes. So I am rather happy with my tight fold. Had we been deeper, I would possibly have played bet-fold.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

This guy seems very tight, fit or fold type of guy, you certainly can make a disciplined fold


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slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

How about a small blocker bet OTR 1/3 pot and fold to a raise?
Or do we have to call a raise once we invest any amount OTR?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

The guy has so little left and he is still a shortstacker playing NL2 so he can have those weak hands too. So I think bet folding would be not good.


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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

That´s why I said I would consider that only if we were deeper.


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