Unsure about the hand

I would fold pre-flop on his big 3bet and the sample on his 3bet stats is low as well and further he looks pretty tight so far.

As played I would most likely fold the turn. I expect he will check the turn when he doesn’t have top pair or better and your kicker isn’t great against his 3bet range and I would fold for sure.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I would fold this pre. Calling might not be horrible, neither would be 4bet bluffing but I prefer to fold.
OTF call is ok. You might not be ahead since villain can still have KK+,AQ but calling should still be ok.
OTT it is closer. You really don't stand very well against his value range, so I think you can call here only if you think he could 3bet bluff you and then continue 2 streets with a draw.
OTR some straight draws get there and villain looks very strong. I think folding is the best option there.

Villains range is probably QQ+,AQ and some suited connectors and maybe weaker KSx and QXs as a bluff. 3betting 77+ would be a bit wide.
You really can be behind on this hand so raising turn to see where you are would be a terrible idea.

You don't have 3 calls here

I think call pre is fine since you have position and we should defend here with a lot of suited hands that have a good chance to beat the top of BBs range and stack them. If BB 3bets to wide for value e.g. AQo,AJs,KQ it gets worse to call with QJs. However, I think BB wants to call a lot of hands and thus needs to keep these strong hands for calling.

On the flop, if we include AK in his c betting range we pretty much always get the right odds to call.

On the turn , this is not true anymore. He is unlikely to cbet with just overcards. AKdd, AKhh will probably continue bluffing. KQs might stop barreling. JJ,TT are decent bluffs but he might not cbet those. I think bluff raising might be a decent option on the turn. If you shove, you might even get called by 6 combos ATs,AJs,AKs that have the fd but usually you will find stronge combos to call you. It is totally reasonable for you to have the straight or 99, QQ. Though I think it is unlikely, you might even get some folds by KQs,AQ,KK-AA.
If you only get called by QQ-AA,AQs (15 combos) you need him to fold more than 5 combos which is not unreasonably (the 6 combos ATs,AJs,AKs that have the fd) .

He seems tight so I would be more inclined to folding preflop. As played I think calling flop/turn and folding river is the best option. But if his turn bet was bigger it's an easy fold imo. I disagree with raising turn.

plopfessional my math is very rusty and not good, but aren't we losing money there if you say he needs to fold more than 5 combos? I mean yeah lets say he folds 6 combos and we win 75bb little less then 30% of the time, but we're 20% dog against his calling range of QQ+, AQs?

you are right invictus. I miscalculated. We need 36% folds, 15/(1-.36)=23.4 -> 9 or more combos need to fold. (15*.36>5 was my ingenious miscalculation) I just wanted to point out if we need a hand to bluff raise the turn with, QJ would be the best option. most likely, this only occurs if we have a read that villain overfolds to aggression postflop.
There is just no value hand we can beat and he is quite unlikely to bluff the turn. Thus, a fold is in order.

Preflop: I think 9% 3bet over 59 hands is not really tight. Also 17/13.5 over 59 hands does not give us enough information. He is probably not loose but I would not be shocked if he is 22/18/6 or something like that. So I would go to the default line which should be call QJs pre (right?!)

Well if 59 hands isn't enough for VPIP and PFR stats, then it sure isn't enough for 3 bet stat. Because those 9% could simply mean that he 3 bet only one hand. And if we don't know our opponent well enough I would be more inclined to fold preflop and also not to try to make some plays when we have no clue where we're at (turn).

Why I said I'm ok with turn call is because the villain bet only half the pot and we also get the gutshot, although it might not be good with all the flush draws out there, but since we're getting 3:1 on our call I think it's not bad if we call the turn bet.

Playing 3 bet pots against unknowns is a lot more difficult than against the players we know, obviously.

I read you need 1000 hands for reliable 3bet stats, but if you do assume its a real stat you are a 2:1 underdog vs 9.5%

MP2 35.59% QsJs
MP3 64.41% 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo

Having said that I think I call pre, just because so many people like to 3bet from the BB to LP raises
OTF - call
OTT - I guess you have to fold, a fairly tight player has 3bet then double barrelled so you cant be ahead

@slippyjim

I think that that 3betting range is not very accurate. If we assume our villain is using good ranges, he shouldn't have a merged range OOP. IP he could 3bet dominated hands like AJo and ATs because he would be able to realize his equity better but when he is OOP he should have a polarized range meaning his value range is tighter and then he has some suited connectors and low AXs, KXs etc..

Also when deciding whether to call his 3bet pre, it is not so important what our rundown equity is because we are not all in. We have to figure out how often we hit different flops, how often villain hits and how often we are behind even if we hit. Our flushes are sometimes dominated, so are our pairs, and there are some overcards that can come on the board.

Everything you said probably makes sense at higher limits, but at these limits in my experience there are generally 2 types of 3bettors,
1) solid- only 3 bets premiums
2) crazy - 3bets any A, any pair, any 2 suited, any 2 connectors etc and doesnt care/realise about position

He looks more like type 1 so yeah I think Ive changed my mind now and just fold pre ♦