Do you bluff river in this spot?

I would 3barrel. Villain should fold a big part of his range. He has some draws, weaker pairs, weak Qx etc in his range. You have just J high so probably not much showdown value. It is good to have some 3barrel bluffs too and I believe this hand is one of your top bluffs here.

IMO that's not such a good spot. The river card does not change the board at all. If he didn't fold turn why would he fold river? Yes he can have some drawing hands that missed, but I am not sure you fold a Q when you bet that river.

I am not a fan of bluffing blank river.

Based on his pre-flop stats he looks passive and if he has showdown value he will call you most likely and the only hands you let him fold is a missed draw.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I still think villain might not check good Qx or 9x OTF and if he does check 9x OTF I would expect to see a raise OTF or OTT. He can have a lot of stuff that floats the flop and maybe calls turn too. Even if he would be passive postflop it doesn't mean he is a calling station and I think it is reasonable to expect villain to fold some of his weakest Qx vs 3 barrel.

I suck at GTO but I would say that hero has a betting range OTR. If hero has a betting range it should contain some bluffs too. If hero's value 3barreling range is something like: 9d9h, 7h7s, 7h7c, 7s7c, KhQh, Ad9d, Ah9h, Kd9d, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jd9d, Jh9h, Td9d, Th9h (14 combos) and hero bets half pot here, he should have 3 to 4 bluff combos. And I think this hand was one of the best semibluffs that bet OTT.

Never bluff a donkey. This guy seems fishy. Not unlikely he can hold bunch of 9x, and expecting to get folds by Qx is WAY too ambitious. That said... checking turn and giving up unimproved may have the highest EV

Originally posted by MisterSnS
Never bluff a donkey. This guy seems fishy. Not unlikely he can hold bunch of 9x, and expecting to get folds by Qx is WAY too ambitious. That said... checking turn and giving up unimproved may have the highest EV

This imo.

Originally posted by la55i
I still think villain might not check good Qx or 9x OTF and if he does check 9x OTF I would expect to see a raise OTF or OTT. He can have a lot of stuff that floats the flop and maybe calls turn too. Even if he would be passive postflop it doesn't mean he is a calling station and I think it is reasonable to expect villain to fold some of his weakest Qx vs 3 barrel.

I suck at GTO but I would say that hero has a betting range OTR. If hero has a betting range it should contain some bluffs too. If hero's value 3barreling range is something like: 9d9h, 7h7s, 7h7c, 7s7c, KhQh, Ad9d, Ah9h, Kd9d, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jd9d, Jh9h, Td9d, Th9h (14 combos) and hero bets half pot here, he should have 3 to 4 bluff combos. And I think this hand was one of the best semibluffs that bet OTT.

There are a lot of missed draws and villain will be more eager to check us out.

If I have understood these things correctly, if our betting range has correct amount of bluffs, it doesn't matter how often villain checks us out. If we bet 1/2 for example and our betting range has 3 bluff combos, we are still making money.

Don't bluff in this spot.

Originally posted by la55i
If I have understood these things correctly, if our betting range has correct amount of bluffs, it doesn't matter how often villain checks us out. If we bet 1/2 for example and our betting range has 3 bluff combos, we are still making money.

Good point.

However, max EV vs this villain might be playing exploitatively, not GTO.

That might be so. On the other hand he can sometimes have small pocket pairs or A/K high air that would fold vs third barrel. Even if villain would be a passive fish he might not call anymore because there is no more cards to come.
I'm totally fine with not bluffing but GTO wise bluffing some combos might be ok and I don't think we are losing much ev by doing so even vs this guy

If you decide villain can't be bluffed out, you shouldn't be bluffing in the first place preflop, flop and turn. Would be mighty silly, right?

So I assume the preflop, flop and turn bets are bluffs based on the assumption that villain can actually fold a hand. Then this is a 3-barrel for the simple reason that we are far down in our range. The fact that there is a missed draw is more incentive, not less, to bluff. Villain has been playing like on a draw, not us.

Originally posted by SuperChompa
IMO that's not such a good spot. The river card does not change the board at all. If he didn't fold turn why would he fold river? ...

Just as bluffing should be given up once in a while, bluff catching should be given up once in a while. This is why he would fold some hands on the river. Think about it, are you calling three bets with QT or TT here in villain's shoes?

Another point: Some stations need to see all cards, but can actually fold a lot OTR. They have to, because their river range is so weak. Against these, never one-barrel or two-barrel. Play honest or three-barrel.