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A7 bubble play

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angalius
Joined: 10.11.2011

Is this push too loose for 15bb, 2 shortstacks and bigstack in BB behind me ?

Pacific, $0.90 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 1,755 (8.8 bb)
BB: 7,362 (36.8 bb)
Hero (CO): 2,933 (14.7 bb)
BTN: 1,450 (7.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7♣: A♠:
Hero raises to 2,913 and is all-in, 3 folds

Results:

Spoiler

580 pot
Hero mucked 7♣: A♠: and won 580 (360 net)


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6 replies
slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

ICM is pretty horrible right here for you, ICMizer says shove (12.2%) 88+,A7s+,A5s-A2s,ATo+,KTs+,KQo,QJs
A7o is -0.03% so its very marginal though

For me it would depend how the BB had been playing, if he was calling lots I would fold but if he had been tight I would shove, but my bubble play isnt totally perfect


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

In this kind of situation and the limit this is you can expect that a random big stack will call most likely looser than he should and this is for me an easy fold on the bubble.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Primrose6789
Joined: 01.07.2016

Originally posted by SDK1987
In this kind of situation and the limit this is you can expect that a random big stack will call most likely looser than he should and this is for me an easy fold on the bubble.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Exactly!

So the answer is yes. It is too loose, especially when the bigstack is BB. You have 3 people behind you to act and at this limit the chance is high that you get called with A8o, A9o, ATo, so with a better ace! Don´t forget about the chance to jam into a better hand or a pocket pair and then you have a flip or you may be 30% underdog. Villains at this level tend to call with any pocket pair.

The chips you have are more valuable than the chips you win. You have 15 BB and still enough time to wait for a solid hand. This time you´re off the hook but next time be patient and wait for a better hand. :f_thumbsup:


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slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

Im not so sure about the BS calling really loose, yes some do, but equally many times I've seen the BS be very passive on the bubble, especially if there is a real SS, and just wait for someone else to bust the SS.
I think its wrong to assume every BS at the micros calls really really wide


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

The problem is that to make this shove profitable is that you need to be sure that the BB will call extreme tight and that isn’t likely I think.


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Primrose6789
Joined: 01.07.2016

To jam or not to jam: To answer this question we need informations about Villains.


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