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AJo IP in 3bet pot against delayed cbet on dry board

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nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010

I dont really see him bluffing the river without cbetting the flop. That flop check is really strange. Maybe hes trying pot control with TT,JJ, maybe hes checking calling top/overpairs too as well as AK. Hands like 76s probably play this way from SB also.

OTT I dont really like the call. You are crushed by all his value range, semibluff range AND stabbing range (AK may decide to take a stab as a bluff but he actually crushes your hand).

The river bet is a value bet really often. But the board is kinda good for a bluff. Either turn your hand into a bluff and shove, repping a bd flush or fold. I prefer folding, but yeah... the mistake is on the turn tbh :)

Edit:
Oh, wow... K3o. Well, I stand by the fold OTT and also think its more of a fold OTR than a call. But NH! :f_drink:


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Kev43
Joined: 30.07.2010

I'm happy I posted this hand :f_biggrin: I really thought I had played it correctly but now I don't really like my call turn. I'd consider calling turn / raising river with a draw if a draw completes river, even if they are not the same.

After the discussion, I'm interested in knowing whether I should bet on the flop.

:heart: Preflop

:spade: Hero
In this situation I open 40% of the time.

:spade: Villain
SB had 3bet 27% SB vs BU (6/22). Let's pretend the sample is sufficient.
I've added some hands to la55i's range and came up with 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo (342 combos, 25.79%).

:spade: Hero
Given Villain's 3bet SB vs BU stat, I think my 4 bet range is KK+ and my calling range will be wide.

What's the EV of villain's 3bet?
Let's assume he 5bets only KK+, which gives him 50% equity if I 4bet so we can neglect that case.
Let's give him 40% equity postflop if I call (he has initiative and I have position).
Let x be the % of my range that I'm folding.
His preflop EV in BB is EV(fold) + EV(call) = 4.4x - 0.4 * 8.6 * (1-x) = 7.84x - 3.44.
His EV is 0 if I fold ~44% of the time.

Since I open 40% of the hands, I need to call almost 300 combos.
:diamond: It's probably a bit less because he probably 3bets less than 27% but let's pretend)
:diamond: I have to keep in mind that this assumes that I have 60% equity postflop, which won't happen if my range is too wide

This range has 282 combos: QQ-66, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
That's actually a lot wider than my calling range when I played his hand... (to be fair I didn't have access to his 3bet SB vs BU range at that time)

:heart: Flop

:spade: Villain
Villain now has 306 combos.
Let's say that he's a decent player and that a third of the time when he has top pair or second pocket pair, he tries to trap me by checking. That's 106 combos and he's going to check / call a third of that, ie 35 combos
He's also going to check / fold garbage (JT J9 etc), which is another 36 combos
And let's says he's going to check/raise his OESD, sets and 2P which represent 13 + 9 + 2 = 24 combos
I think it's a decent strategy (and it's probably overestimating the player, who is not that balanced, but that's a good base).
He's going to cbet 211 combos and check 95. that's 68%, a bit higher than his actual cbet (65%, 15/23). There are adjustments to be made depending on the type of player villain is, but let's use this as a base.

:spade: Hero
254 of my combos made it to the flop.
SB is going to cbet 68% of the time, probably around 50% of the pot.
Which means that his flop cbet EV is EV(hero folds) + EV(hero calls / raises) = 19x - 9 (1-x) = 28x - 9, again with x my fold %.
This is EV0 for x ~32%.

SB has checked, as he does 32% of the time.
Let's say I want to bet around 50% of the pot: 9bb in 19.
The EV of my bet is EV(villain folds) + EV(villain calls / raises) = 19x - 9 (1-x) = 28x - 9, again with x my fold equity

But SB will fold 36 of his 95 possible combos, which gives me a fold equity of 38%.
This is enough to make my bet EV+ regardless of my hand.

If villain check/calls with half of his pairs instead of a third, I have only 31% FE, which gives me an EV of -0.32.

:heart: Conclusion
All in all, given the ranges I made, I think I can bet all my hands that are not complete trash (32 out of 254 have neither pair nor draw nor overcard, ie 12.6%).

This was pretty interesting to write, congratulations if you have read everything.
I would be very interested in constructive criticism concerning my thinking process :f_grin:
The end result is a bit unexpected so I may have made incorrect assumptions.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I'm not sure about those preflop calculations. I'm still a noob at this but with his 3bet he needs about 65% fold equity so we could just be defending 35% to deny his autoprofit. It shouldn't matter much if he is 3betting 10% or 100%. If he 3bets 100% and we defend 35% our value hands will just make more money. Of course we can exploit him and expand our bluff 4bet range vs him but I don't think it is necessary to start calling much wider against wider range, or am I wrong?

On the flop with this range on this board he actually has a lot more air than those 36 combos. According to flop free he has 25% air (85 combos). The biggest category of hands is A high with 27% (92 combos) and equally large part of 2 card backdoor flush draws. Top pair, middle pair and weak pair is only less than third of his whole range.

As I have explained in my previous post, I really don't think he should be cbetting this flop that much and he could have a big check calling range.

Now you have kind of guessed villains range and how he might play and concluded that he is folding too much -> you can bet any 2 cards.
I'm not sure how to calculate this spot either but I guess you would have to see how much villain should be defending vs your range and then see the equity of your hands vs that range and pick the best ones? Now we could have just said that villain probably folds too much so we can stab, without any calculations. That is an exploitative move and I must admit that it most often works, so nothing bad with that. But if we want to use theory, I'm not sure if we should be guessing so much :)


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Kev43
Joined: 30.07.2010

Ah yes it was not very clear because I put the calculation of his EV in his move, not mine. I edited the post.
His EV is 0 if I fold 44% of the time. So I need to react at least 56% of the time.
His 3bet% (and his fold to 4bet, but the sample is too small here) influence what I do when I don't fold (ie my 4bet and calling ranges).
Of course his EV wrt to my fold% is not monotonous, which means it's possible that I make more money by reacting more than 56% of the time. The only thing I know is that if I fold more than 44% of the time, his move is EV+ on the preflop street alone.

It may not be very clear. Two precise examples (let's ignore BB):
- If he 3bets 100% of the time and fold 100% to 4bet, then it is still +EV to play optimally and react 56% of the time. But it's better to exploit his behavior and 4bet 100% of the time.
- If he 3bets 100% of the time and check / folds 100% on the flop, then the optimal approach is still good but the best one is to always call the 3bet and bet on the flop.

But in any case, if I fold more than 44% to his 3bet then he makes money.

I am all in favor of trying to play optimally! In an ideal world I would know the optimal move and adapt it to my opponent's leaks. I'm very new to this so I won't be playing optimally any time soon (especially postflop) but I'm also trying to keep it in mind! Also I'm playing NL5 so really nobody is balanced and it's no use to be balanced against bad players.

On a side note, where can I find this flop free? I used Equilab but it apparently gave me different numbers. I may invest in Flopzilla when I'm sure that I won't give up on poker :f_grin:


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

http://flopfree.com/app/

It is a web based app. Nowhere near as good as Flopzilla but I have found it handy every now and then.


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Kev43
Joined: 30.07.2010

Oh that's pretty cool! It doesn't seem to give combos like "top pair + FD" but it could be useful before I get flopzilla. Thanks :f_thumbsup:


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I checked the flop situation with Snowie and it suggest you could check the flop 38% of the time and bet it 0.25xpot 62% of the time.
With bigger bet sizings the EV of checking is higher.

Spoiler


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

This is what I suggested?...


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

True. But checking seems to be equally good option. And betting is fine only if the sizing is very small. :)


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I didn't say we should bet big... :)


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nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010

And betting 25% pot on the flop accomplishes what exactly? The only thing we get are:
- a possible raise from the nuts, thus revealing his hand
or
- if he calls we are getting initiative, thus seeing 2 cards at the price of half a high % of the time.

These things are good and all but we are getting called from all of his range that crush us and getting folds (or bluff raises) from all his 3bet-bluffs that decide to give up but then against a small bet decide to blow us off our hand.

That snowie program honestly seems like a piece of garbage :roto2:


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Well I think betting is not a good option here. If we decide to bluff and try to make autoprofit our bet sizing should be very small. The bigger our bet is with A high out of position, the worse it gets. And Snowie seems to agree with that.
I think the small bet is an exploitative line, we don't have to win only 20% of the time to bet 25% of the pot profitably. And we probably have the same fold equity with 25% bet than we would have with 50% bet (ppl just aren't defending enough).

The desired outcome is of course that villain folds. If he happens to raise we can happily fold our hand. If he calls we don't really mind him seeing one more card cheap because we are holding A high ourselves.


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nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010

Originally posted by la55i
we can happily fold our hand

?(

How can we possibly ever be happy with folding?
Folding leads to losing the hand. Noone has ever won a hand with folding. How can we be happy about losing the hand?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

When you know that you are beat, you can happily fold. This loses the money already invested but prevents what is left.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

It is true that you can't win by folding. But on the long run you can be a bigger winner by folding on the right places.
I think if we bet, the idea is to make villain fold too much (autoprofit for us), so that is a winning play on the long run. If you get raised, then your move didn't work this time but on the long run it will. Also by folding your trash vs a raise you minimize your losses.
You don't have to try to win every hand because often it will just lead to you losing more.


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nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010

So whenever you feel a fold is best, you are happy?
What are you, the happiest person in the world? :yaoming:


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Wellll, if I would be affected by that I would call it tilting. And I try to avoid that


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by nsavov
So whenever you feel a fold is best, you are happy?
What are you, the happiest person in the world? :yaoming:
I do not see anything wrong.


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Kev43
Joined: 30.07.2010

I think you should check your folding stats nsavov it sounds like you're not folding enough :f_drink:
Or else come play against me :f_biggrin:

I'm not happy betting 25% here because he is probably going to call and raise more if I bet too little. I will also need more FE if my bet is bigger. There is a sweet spot somewhere and it's probably around 40-50% with most opponents.


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nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010

So basically what you are saying is that I should play bad, just to improve my folding stats, thus increasing my happiness?
Okay cool.


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