I was just wondering about the EV in late regging in proggressive KO tournaments. Sometimes you late reg last minute and get your chips in first hand against someone who is shortstacked with 3-5x starting bounty and you get a massive EV benefit and sometimes you late reg into a table where everyone covers you and your screwd.
But my question is it in general -EV to late reg in proggressive KO tournaments or do someone know where I can find more information about this topic?
Tough question. I think it also depends if you are good in deep stack poker or in short stack play. If you better in short stack play it’s possible that late registration is better for you than starting from the beginning.
Cheers,
SDK1987
It is -EV to late reg in pretty much every MTT - sometimes more than others. But yes, definitely more -EV to late reg in a PSKO MTT. 50% (sometimes 75%) of the prizepool is paid through bounties, and most of this money will be inaccessible when late regging. It is -EV compared to regging early, that being said I also think bounty MTTs tend to be softer than regular MTTs, and they are beatable even when max late regging
Originally posted by Malendes
It is -EV to late reg in pretty much every MTT - sometimes more than others. But yes, definitely more -EV to late reg in a PSKO MTT. 50% (sometimes 75%) of the prizepool is paid through bounties, and most of this money will be inaccessible when late regging. It is -EV compared to regging early
I can see where this is coming from but on the other hand the bigger bounties (basically the ones we want to win) are to be won later on in the tournament so I definately don't see any problems in lateregging bounty tournaments.
I even tend to extremely latereg the lowest buy ins of my buy in range when it's a bounty tournament. Try to double up a couple of times and then hunt the bigger bounties. I know this method is far from optimal but I simply cba to play 9 hours in a 1$ bounty builder to win 200 and a couple of bounties so I usually reg after 2 hours, embracing the higher variance route but not having to spend 9 hours grinding to win it.
I don't think late registration is advisabl in any MTT. At least for me it always feels like I would get less hands played for my buy-in. And there will be bigstacks around already once you register which is also a big disadvantage to start with.
Originally posted by Mallett
I don't think late registration is advisabl in any MTT. At least for me it always feels like I would get less hands played for my buy-in. And there will be bigstacks around already once you register which is also a big disadvantage to start with.
Yeah your ROI will obviously be smaller when you latereg but you can get alot more volume in since the tournaments will last a shorter time on average.
Also I don't understand why you think its a disadvantage to be shortstacked when its actually the opposite. In cash games and early stages of tournaments where ICM is not a big factor, shortstacks get an advantage on bigger stacks because shortstacks can bully the bigger stacks, this is why shortstacking is a viable strategy in cash games.
Originally posted by Laserbeam
Originally posted by Mallett
I don't think late registration is advisabl in any MTT. At least for me it always feels like I would get less hands played for my buy-in. And there will be bigstacks around already once you register which is also a big disadvantage to start with.Yeah your ROI will obviously be smaller when you latereg but you can get alot more volume in since the tournaments will last a shorter time on average.
Also I don't understand why you think its a disadvantage to be shortstacked when its actually the opposite. In cash games and early stages of tournaments where ICM is not a big factor, shortstacks get an advantage on bigger stacks because shortstacks can bully the bigger stacks, this is why shortstacking is a viable strategy in cash games.
Agree with this 
If it didnt take time, decision making and screenspace away, the ultimate way to play would be to register from beginning in all your tournaments, but thats not the case.
I would still think it is much more -EV to max latereg a PSKO than a normal MTT though.
Well if you got an edge in the latestage maybe that's a reason to get in early to increase your overall edge :).
Someones say that winning from late registration is easier. For me its easier start from begin.
I think that the belief in the profitability of l/r in PKOs is an instance of duration neglect as well as the fading affect bias. L/r only makes sense at the start of the session, in order to reduce the total session length, but then again, it hurts the ROI and thus increases the probability of a big downswing, so use it with caution and definitely not at the top end of your stake range.
Has any of the MTT regs (I'm not one) actually analysed (via observation) a lobby of a large PKO (or a batch of medium-sized PKOs) to count objectively what fraction of players with big bounties on their heads actually have a smaller stack than the starting one? Intuitively, I don't believe it's big enough to compensate for the inconvenience of being covered by the majority of opponents when you register late. There are a couple of reasons for that:
1. Getting a big bounty on your head involves knocking out players and thus gaining chips in the process, so having a bigger bounty than average on your head is positively correlated with having a bigger stack than average (ldo). Correlation doesn't imply causation, and of course there are statistical outliers - those who first knock out a few players and then lose a big pot and become shortstacked - but here we come to point 2.
2. When a player is covered by the majority but has an unusually big bounty on himself, the opponents play wider ranges and are more likely to stack off with him faster (ldo). So, when such a player is present, he'll either be eliminated fast or will double / triple up fast and no longer be shortstacked. In other words, the presence of such players measured in man-hours is usually low, especially as opposed to the occupancy of the tables by players with bigger stacks than the starting one (measured also in man-hours), and the gap between the two usually grows as the tourney progresses. Also, the pots involving short stacks with big bounties on them tend to be more multiway, thus you'll often have to expose your stack to 1 or more opponents covering you if you want to knock the short stack out.
The reason why shortstacks with big bounties on them seem omnipresent is that knocking such a player out is a big pleasure, it's much more emotionally charged than the mundane event of being knocked out yourself, and such intense emotions are imprinted deeply into the memory.
