SH Zoom AJs, Bluffing 3 Streets vs Missed Flop Cbet with Overcards

If he opens 18-19% from MP and folds 43%, so he is defending with 10-11%.
That said, it is ok to 3b him preflop.

Turn is not changing much the picture, so I do not feel llike barreling more here.

Wouldn't mind betting smaller OTF, he shouldn't call anymore or less if you bet 0,85.

Turn doesn't really improve our hand, so wouldn't mind just giving up here, we should probably just be barreling on hearts, Ax and Jx.

With ace high we might have the best hand, I would not bet flop with that hand. Delay cbet he he checks twice might be a better option IMO.
We cannot be 100% sure they don't balance their checking range, he very likely has 400 hands history of you and if you have high cbet flop and turn he might very well check good hands here. The fact he calls twice shows it.

Hard one. If villain folds only 33% OOP vs cbet, then I would barrel as well. I would only bet OTR when I know for certain that I have enough FE. Not sure if I have it here and to be honest, I play too little nowadays to go deeper on this subject
Anyone ideas about villain's FE OTR?

Originally posted by Alleen86
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Flop: When he checks, I bet 100% of my bluffing and semi-bluffing hands because it's an auto-profit situation (they will generally fold in ~60% vs bet). I also have some good outs and barrel cards if he calls. Actually, when he checks, 2-barrels and 3-barrels would also be auto-profitable (because people don't balance their checking ranges at these stakes and they will usually be capped - not strong enough to call multiple barrels). This player folds 50% OOP when skip flop cbet.
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I'd say you don't have autoprofit. This relies on him giving up on the spot. If this is your read, then of course you should bet. But most people stab once rather than giving up right away.

Originally posted by Alleen86
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Turn: I hit a gutshot and still have two overs. Also considering what I wrote above (auto-profitable barrels), decicded to bet again.
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Now comes the payoff for the flop bet.

Originally posted by Alleen86
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River:
..., but I still think he will fold AK-AQ (I believe he might have some, especially AcXc)
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What do you think?

No idea. But the Ax are far in between in his range. These fold OTT (or are c-bet, esp. with two clubs).

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Alleen86
Flop: When he checks, I bet 100% of my bluffing and semi-bluffing hands because it's an auto-profit situation (they will generally fold in ~60% vs bet). I also have some good outs and barrel cards if he calls. Actually, when he checks, 2-barrels and 3-barrels would also be auto-profitable (because people don't balance their checking ranges at these stakes and they will usually be capped - not strong enough to call multiple barrels). This player folds 50% OOP when skip flop cbet.

I'd say you don't have autoprofit. This relies on him giving up on the spot. If this is your read, then of course you should bet. But most people stab once rather than giving up right away.

I definitelly have an autoprofit there. Firstly I saw that in weazel's "Red Line Rampage" series, but I've also done the analysis by myself, by combining 700 NL25 players into one alias and see the stats. Regarding this particular situation, when they check flop as preflop raisers OOP in single raised pots, they fold in 64,3% of cases vs a bet. I didn't look how they react vs 3 barrels, but if you filter your database for spots where you cold called preflop and bet flop, turn and river IP when opponent skiped flop cbet, the red line should go up as crazy, which means that opponents fold alot on the river. Here is my graph:

Betting OTF might gain you autoprofit, maybe. I still wouldn't bet always here. And when he calls, I wouldn't always barrel the turn either.
If you make small autoprofit by cbetting always but then lose a big pot on later streets sometimes, it will be a negative result over the long run?

btw: I have tried to put many villains on a single alias but it seems like I have to input all of their usernames manually and it takes a loooong time.. Do you have any tips how to do that faster?

Originally posted by la55i
Betting OTF might gain you autoprofit, maybe. I still wouldn't bet always here. And when he calls, I wouldn't always barrel the turn either.
If you make small autoprofit by cbetting always but then lose a big pot on later streets sometimes, it will be a negative result over the long run?

You make autoprofit over the long run all situations and hands combined, that's the point.

Originally posted by la55i
btw: I have tried to put many villains on a single alias but it seems like I have to input all of their usernames manually and it takes a loooong time.. Do you have any tips how to do that faster?

No easy way, unfortunatelly. I read about some scripts to run, but it might hurt your database and at the end it doesn't spare you alot of time. I did it manually.

If you get 64,3% folds right away, then you decidedly have autoprofit with normal-sized bets (e.g. need 33% folds to a 50% bet). I didn't know they were so incredibly unbalanced.

But then you simply can't have much autoprofit for a turn/river-barrel. There are no hands left for them to fold...

Originally posted by YohanN7
If you get 64,3% folds right away, then you decidedly have autoprofit with normal-sized bets (e.g. need 33% folds to a 50% bet). I didn't know they were so incredibly unbalanced.

But then you simply can't have much autoprofit for a turn/river-barrel. There are no hands left for them to fold...

I think that's explained in weazel's "Red Line Rampage - Free Money". You should definitelly filter you database for described situation (IP, Call Preflop, Bet Flop, Bet Turn, Bet River) and see if it works for you (does your red line go up).

There's a lot to be said about the "red line". Most of it is misconceptions. I can easily "manufacture" (and often do) a "nice red line" by playing outrageously aggressive. Just 3-bet 15%, c-bet flop, and the your red line will look fantastic. It may be far from optimal though, because your other "lines" suffer.

Auto-profit is another thing. If you have it, just take it, at least in position. (OOP you risk screwing up on later streets. This does add to the calculation.)

Do sizings matter in this spot? Will it be a difference if we bet F 1/3, T 2/3 (1,8$ to 2,8$ pot)? We may achieve the same result by risking less, but it may induce x/r on dry boards.

Originally posted by hansssolo
Do sizings matter in this spot? Will it be a difference if we bet F 1/3, T 2/3 (1,8$ to 2,8$ pot)? We may achieve the same result by risking less, but it may induce x/r on dry boards.

If we bet less, we need less fold equity to make the bluff profitable. If, let's say, opponent folds 40% vs our bet no matter the bet size, then would be more profitable to bluff with 1/3 than 2/3. But it's hard to know how much they will fold vs different sizes. Might turn out that vs 1/3 size they fold only 20%, in which case we don't have an automatic profit (because we need 25%), and vs 2/3 size they fold 50%, in which case we have an automatic profit (because we need 40%).

It's not directly connected with this hand, but there is another interesting thing I found out about average NL25 player (but it's probably the case with all microstakes players). They fold ~80% vs a river overbet! If, for example, the pot is 40bb and we bet 50bb, we need fold equity of 50/(50+40)*100 = 56%. That's a huge autoprofit we have with bluff overbetting! I started to use this information vs capped ranges and it really works perfectly, basically in all kinds of situations (when we are preflop aggressor or preflop caller, single raised pots, 3bet pots etc.).

Originally posted by hansssolo
Do sizings matter in this spot? Will it be a difference if we bet F 1/3, T 2/3 (1,8$ to 2,8$ pot)? We may achieve the same result by risking less, but it may induce x/r on dry boards.

It is definitely worthwhile to get to understand the mathematics behind this. Don't fall into the trap of regularly betting more on bluffs than value hands. It might work versus some push-overs, but is a recipe for long term disaster. Reading big bets for bluffs is even worse. It makes you the easiest player in the world to beat.

Reads override, as usual. Do what you think maximizes EV.

Not sure about the flop bet. It's kind of close. Obviously it's +EV to bet here and barrel off because I agree his range is capped and not well balanced at these limits. I am just a little worried that AJs is a bit high up in our range to be turning into a bluff. If we bet this hand we are practically bluffing 100% of non-value hands. But again agree it's profitable to barrel off here. That said, don't be overly shocked if you run into 78s and 99 some portion of the time. You are deeper and he can check stronger hands here OOP.

As played I think river is mandatory barrel vs AK and AQ. The turn card in this spot makes it a lot easier for him to get to the river with these hands. You run into some 78s 99 and maybe even A4s from a loose open (OK not often but trying to put a range together here isn't that easy). This makes the bulk of his range AK and AQ. It feels pukey to bluff this hand as AJ high so often has SD value but in this spot I really can't see what we beat. Some club draws maybe? But how many don't bet flop? So yeah easy river barrel I think. Expect folds most of the time, occasionally run into some weaker value hands that decided to ch/call flop and call down.

Oh and as for barrelling A & J. I think barrelling J makes sense. Barrelling A though, not sure about this. I think I rather ch/back and get my 2 streets OTR. Yeah makes us somewhat unbalanced on the A turn but I rly don't think it matters here. I think we are focusing completely on an exploitative play anyway and our range is naturally protected by sets and AQ so (Y)

We should barrel every J and pot control every A.

I think barrelling the A is counter intuitive. We assume here his range is some weak pairs x/calling and then some AK/AQ and not much else right? Hence why we think he is capped and we can barrel off etc.

Now if the T comes A what happens when we bet? He folds most of the worse hands (that's why people bluff A turns) so the hands like 78s 66 or whatever. (He probably doesn't fold 99 until river but that's still 2 streets of value only) and then he calls all of the better hands. All his AQ and AK are calling and he can have a bunch of them here. A4s etc also calling (if he has them) so either he folds a worse hand or he has us beat. So betting doesn't make much sense at all?

The hands that are 50/50 to call like 89 99 etc are calling 2 streets. So we can check back the A and bet the river anyway.

Now looking at the J turn his range doesn't improve anywhere near as much. We can also have gutters etc on this turn when we barrel so makes plenty of sense to bet. He has less hands that beat us. We can have plenty of gunshots/ draws and the J is just less scary for him so we can actually try to get 3 streets here.

Hope that makes some sense

fusionpk,
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