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Balancing poker, life, programming and investing

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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi SPeedFANat1c
There was a thread some time ago that discussed whether or not listening to music was +EV.

For me, definitely not, but others disagreed.

Peace,
VS


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Hi SPeedFANat1c
There was a thread some time ago that discussed whether or not listening to music was +EV.

For me, definitely not, but others disagreed.

Peace,
VS

yea, but I think I do not even need to read it. If it disctracts, then you make less volume or if same volume - more mistakes I think. If you listen the music which is not distracting, then I believe it does not make big effect.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Was relistening dnb mix which I posted earlier then 2nd half, and not all listened, but there were some boring music.

But between boring, I found one I liked, so sharing here:

Did not play poker this week yet I guess, couple of days was working on my charts. Yesterday went to a movie with friends and to coffee.

The movie is called Zero 3

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt6194850/

which is lithuanian movie.

I think I would give it like 5/10. There were jokes, but many of them predictable and too simple. Like many f words. You do not need to be very smart to tell f words. Also many yelling which I notice is common in lithuanian movies or theater and its not my taste.

I mainly went to meet with friends, not for the movie, becuase they are also very busy, so we meet not so often.

I think it is ok to kill time, but its definitely not must watch even if you are Lithuanian.

But for us, poker players the time is one of the most expensive things, especially for those who have work.

Also some of jokes will not be understandable for foreigners, unless they follow news in Lithuania.

And today was in the programmers meetup, after that half hour sport, and now writing this update. And after 50 mins I will have to be in bed. Theoretically I could study like 30 mins poker. But I need to eat a little bit. And do not feel like doing smth serious, was exhausted from job, only after 30 mins sport recovered. Its incredible how sport works like magic.

Actually in secondary school I did not feel such effect of sport and I did not like it. Maybe because there was too heavy sport for me. And though sport not needed for me. And at univercity 4 years practically I did not do sport, because it was not mandatory :) and there were days when I was exhausted but I did not think that sport could help, what a miss.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Hi,

still not playing poker my mind is too much about work, that I am thinking currently how I should improve, because I get too much stress at work, so trying to find out something what could help.

I have quickly read one interesting book, which is not about some particular technology, but about general programming stuff.

The Clean Coder: A Code of Conduct for Professional Programmers (Robert C. Martin Series)

He had told various stories from his life. It feels sometimes like so unfair.

Example of his story: he was best programmer in the company. But he had his own opinion about things. For example, when he got that job, he saw that everyone are wearing ties. He did not wear it. He said it was the first mistake on first day in the job by not wearing a tie. Some manager told him "we are wearing ties here".

Come on - what the fuck :) if I am so good specialist, why I cant wear what I want, especially when I am not dealing with cleats :)

Another thing - he was the best, he knew it and he did not care about deadlines and coming to work on time.

Now this is more serious than not wearing a tie, at least I start to understand. But still from the programmers point of view - its not fun to think about deadlines at all. Programming is fun without deadlines. Especially if you are best.
But yea, from business point of view, sadly they need to manage risk, and they need often.

Another interesting thing is that he mentioned in the book - he was working 70-80 hours per week when was young.

Is that dream job to work so much hours? If you are good, thats what you get for being good? Btw it was back in 1970 or so. Maybe there was not enough jobs to choose from even in america.

I understand if you like what you do, its easier, but still he done this for like 8 months on one project to prove that he finishes. I do not believe it was fun even for him. And then he asked a raise, but got only 2 %, then he left the company because of this and could not get a new job After month came back and was happy that he was accepted even for lower salary :)

The lesson - try to not leave the job if you do not have new one. I understand so completely that he was sick off this working so hard and not getting what he wants.

Another weird thing he says - profesional takes responsibility. If he made a mistake that costed 10000 $, non profesional just shrug the shoulders, says shit happens and continues to work. Profesional - pays this 10000 $.

Probably most of the population are not professionals then :) if you make mistake which costs 2 million dollars , what then? :) you work for decades for free ?:)

Yea and one more statement about profesionals. Profesional, if works 40 hours per week, he studies 20 extra hours. Again - I believe 90% of programmers are not profesionals then :) 60 hours total is huge. Especially for those who have families, or hobbies which require lot of time.

I think instead of saying professional - maybe he should say - a star like he is the one who studies 20 hours per week + 40 hours work. If you want to be world class star, then I believe, same as in poker you have to study a ton.

And in programming also, I think if I would study 20 hours per week, I would know too much. I would not be able to use everything I know I think. And if I learn C++ while my work is PHP, then the employee is not gonna pay my twice if my work is PHP just because I have learned C++.

And there was other lot of interesting stuff. Lot of stuff I found good. Only with few like this studying extra 20 hours a week I do not think it makes much sense, unless in times when you need to learn new technology which you will use at work or you want to be world star.

Now I was searching next books to read which I hope could help me at work - again non technology. This book could be useful not only for programmers:

"The Hard Truth About Soft Skills: Workplace Lessons Smart People Wish They'd Learned Sooner"

but amazon suggested similar book with bigger rating:

"Secrets to Winning at Office Politics: How to Achieve Your Goals and Increase Your Influence at Work"

and the reviews sound very nice on amazon. So I guess now I will read this book, and hope that it will help me.

And there are various other books with nice sounding titles like this:

"Corporate Bullshit A Survival Guide" but this one does not have rating.

I think I did good job by reading and re listening book "How to win friends and influence people".

At first I thought those books are mostly for making money and telling bullshit, but actually I think it helped me a bit. I think I make less enemies at least if not increasing friends. Of course at the cost of not telling what I think. But it is not diplomatic to tell always what you think, so that book teached diplomacy. And so I started to believe in those self help books and now motivated to read others, especially during stressful periods at work.

So as I do not play poker, I hope I use my free time productively to improve. I like to open facebook still but I try to minimize.

Most important is that I would learn how to make money without having stresses and with as little time as possible.

Plus thinking - if I have to work 60 hours per week, then maybe I should do my own project with the hope one day that I will have passive income from it. Like create some software which generates money?

That would mean no time for poker while having full time job. So not sure. It is also risky because if I create some project, it does not mean it will bring me money. And I am beating NL10, I could learn more and beat NL20, then NL50 and NL50 is some serious money already. And I am not a business person, I should try to find a partner probably which deals with people stuff, marketing. One posibility could be my sister, because she likes this kind of stuff more, she would like to have business and also I could trust her much more than some random people.


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Rhodriguez
Joined: 01.10.2006

Great post. So I thought I would share my opinons on a few of the topics!

Tie story.
I see where you coming and also think sometimes they overstate. But uniformity is important! Specially when you code in a team. Interfaces have certain requirements and programming is a science and has to be exact. Or else they won't work together. But yes some of the management is looking at their guides more like a bible. But then again if you are not willing or even can't comply with a simple dress code - it could already raise a red flag.

Deadlines
Everything is fun without deadlines! But this is one of the case the best people are there own worst enemies. I read somewhere that some programmers (I think game developer) where asked why they don't publish the source code. And most of them responded that they would really like to do it but first had to clean up the code. Than as right know they are embarrassed how unclean they put together their pieces. There is always something to improve. And maybe to have a working code at a certain time ready is just one of a the traits which would be necessary to be the best programmer. Like in poker. Maybe someone has the best understanding of the game but when they are broke all the time, at least for me, they can't be the best players. Or in sports the biggest talents - but can't put the effort in. Or actors who can't show up sober. And on and on and on...

70-80 hours | Profesional, if works 40 hours per week, he studies 20 extra hours.
Or maybe that was what made him so good. In two way of the sense.
And I have the same problem with those people. Sometimes I have the feeling that exeptional people don't understand how much others are struggeling. They can't grasp how lucky they are on the bell curve and have the feeling that everyone could achieve the same by just putting up the same number of hours. But on top all hills are flat.

But now I'm curious and have to check the title further - interessting index. Now I'm wondering reading this or should rather learn another langue..

Cheers and good luck with PHP, poker, your own project or whatever!


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Great post. So I thought I would share my opinons on a few of the topics!

oh, nice to see that at least for some it is interesting :) I was thinking since this is poker forum, posts like this might not be interstin. On the other hand, when I read other poker blogs, for me it is also interesting their non poker life.

And most of them responded that they would really like to do it but first had to clean up the code

yea, I really believe its true about gaming, because I heard the gaming industry is the most overworking in programming :) and this is because of concurency I believe - lot of people want to be game programmers, because it is cool. At least me and others probably think. But when I said it is cool to program games to a friend programmer, he did not see anthing cool in that, so it means not for everybody this is. WHen I was young, I also considered game programming would be a cool job, but now I am happy that I am not game programmer becuase of that concurency :) I mean since there is concurency, the managers can demand a lot and they get what they want.

And maybe to have a working code at a certain time ready is just one of a the traits which would be necessary to be the best programmer.

Maybe. But I believe best ones make good code also, and do not work in companies which require to be too fast and write crap, like code with little tests. Besides game companies maybe.

70-80 hours | Profesional, if works 40 hours per week, he studies 20 extra hours.
Or maybe that was what made him so good. In two way of the sense.

Yea.

Sometimes I have the feeling that exeptional people don't understand how much others are struggeling. They can't grasp how lucky they are on the bell curve and have the feeling that everyone could achieve the same by just putting up the same number of hours. But on top all hills are flat.

Hmm, since he worked 70-80 hours, it means he himself was strugling. Maybe he is not thinking that everybody would achieve same by putting same number of hours, but he maybe thinks you can be very good. Who knows. But I do not see the big benefit in putting 60 hours per week for programming, even if I become very good, what is the point of this when have very little free time.

But now I'm curious and have to check the title further - interessting index. Now I'm wondering reading this or should rather learn another langue..

If you need language for work really bad, then learn language. If new language is not needed quickly, then at least check this book, if you do not like it, stop. But I read it quickly, it is easily readable, not much to stop and think.

Cheers and good luck with PHP, poker, your own project or whatever!

thanks :)

btw is your main job programming also?


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EmanuelC16
Joined: 02.01.2010

Since I'm on a sort of PS "rampage", here are my 2 cents on the best programmer story...

Being the best at something without producing anything is worthless. I'd rather have a mediocre programmer who is reliable, than the best programmer who never delivers a project.

One book that seems to be good for your situation is The Startup Of You, by Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn.

So you now blog about everything else but poker?

PS: Long time, no see!


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Being the best at something without producing anything is worthless. I'd rather have a mediocre programmer who is reliable, than the best programmer who never delivers a project.

That makes sense. Probably that programmer is not best who never delivers project.

Thanks, adding that book to my todo read list :)

Yea, just my mind is so much about work, I want to show to them and myself that I am profitable for them to keep me. And I feel guilty by not doing something to improve, and that takes time, and so no time to play. Especially when I have now a complex task assigned and little time to to complete it.

Also I could maybe find time for NL10 which I believe I beat, but the money is so low that I feel its not worth to just play without improving.

Now I have 1 day holiday and weekend , maybe should play some NL10 to at least not forget poker, because the more I do not play, the harder I find to force myself, cause I think, that after some time my skill decreased and I will play worse.

I hope that once I will start thinking less about job (after work hours of course :) ), then I will start playing poker more and blog about poker :)

Btw, was browsing dating site and one girl wrote good comment:

Relationship - the ability to put up with someone else's bullshit for a long period of time.

feel so true in real life :)


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EmanuelC16
Joined: 02.01.2010

Haha, well, poker is kind of dying out. If you think it's fun, it makes sense to play it every now and then. I haven't played any online poker since I officially quit it and cashed out everything.

I have played live every now and then but that was purely for the social experience. Of course, I played to win but I didn't feel the need to fire up table online or anything like that.

My point is: if you do enjoy programming to some extent, it has much more long term potential than poker at this moment. I wouldn't worry too much about not getting really good at poker to be honest.

One thing that could help with the job: A vast majority of programmers are notoriously unstructured and unreliable when it comes to their ability to deliver. If you are at least "on time" with your code, it will be of great value for someone who needs not only quality but also predictability. Quality still matters of course, but it goes hand in hand with the skilled guy who never delivers analogy.

How well you integrate into the business has more value than most think. The skills you can gain later, but building your social skills to be able to handle more situations is something harder, because once you don't have that, you cannot work in the team. In reverse, your lack or some coding skills are not going to stop you from having a good and productive working relationships in the team.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Haha, well, poker is kind of dying out.

I think even if it is dieing, its pace of dieing should be slower now and at some point it should stop when it reaches some balance. Because there will be always gamblers or peopple who play for fun, right? So it means it will never die completely. Unless for some reason all rooms will make games similar to roulette where it is only possible to loose.

My point is: if you do enjoy programming to some extent, it has much more long term potential than poker at this moment. I wouldn't worry too much about not getting really good at poker to be honest.

I believe it is true 100%. But its not about the money only :) and I enjoy programming when I can program without people who create me stress. But from my experience, in all companies I have worked, always I get stressed because they expect more than I am able to do in time frame.

One thing that could help with the job: A vast majority of programmers are notoriously unstructured and unreliable when it comes to their ability to deliver. If you are at least "on time" with your code, it will be of great value for someone who needs not only quality but also predictability. Quality still matters of course, but it goes hand in hand with the skilled guy who never delivers analogy.

I am not on time very often. Good that at least lot of programmers are not on time, if talking about concurrency. I can deliver, but just they should give me more time :) and if smth is so complicated that I am out of options and do not know what to do anymore, then I can tell. Usually I know how to do or how to find info so I could do.

For example now again 2 weeks I probably plan to work overtime because they really want that I complete one long task.
I have no idea how to complete it without using more hours. But I also hate overtimes. But really do not want to be fired, so I will try if I feel ok to do overtime. And then maybe there will be some weeks where I get shorter tasks and could go home earlier for this accumulated overtime.

Also I often do not understand - why some non critical thing needs to be done so fast. Maybe if they would explain why it is important do finish it in this sprint instead of month later, then maybe would be easier to do overtimes, because I will feel like what a good man I am, I have done really important thing. Like if there was some bug which make loose lot of clients, so it needs to be fixed as fast as possible, even if it takes 12 hour per ay, then it makes sense for me, of course if I am not stressed so much that I just sit and look at monitor without being able to think.

Btw do you yourself write code Emanuel or you are pure business person now?

Btw if poker is so dieing, then I would want to try forex also :) I had been in publich coaching and it really looked interesting. Only one thing maybe not super good about forex is that this coach said that he listens, reads news everyday all day or smth like that. I am not sure if I would want to read news all day. But also he said it is possible to make 15-30 % profit with pure technical analisis, which means no news. And I am not sure how those percent are calculated. But combining with fundamental analisis - you can earn more.

And why I am interested in poker or forex instead of having "easy" money with programmning - because I feels more cool when you earn money from something which looks impossible :) like everyone (ok, not everyone bug huge amounts of people) can earn money from programming. But really not everyone from poker or forex :)

And also programmer needs to deal with people a lot more than poker player or forex player.


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EmanuelC16
Joined: 02.01.2010

Please don't go into forex, it's a sinkhole:f_o:The people who make money from forex are those teaching it (they don't trade, they coach) and the big funds who can take risks in their investments and have quite some extra info, sicko AIs, etc.

I don't code anymore but used to, and I've been involved in some coding projects. Aside from that, one of my best friends from high school is a coder and I talk to him rather often. Sounds to me like your company is also not the best. How many people work there?

The thing with overtime is that if you do it too often, you will be asked to do it again and again. There's quite a bit of $$ in coding when you go global and either freelance for companies all over the world, or you start your own company. Both lines there have more headache but also significantly more upside, and it's a risk and headache you should take while young imo. The only downside is that you don't get instant feedback like you do in poker. Each session you play gives you quite a bit of instant feedback on your abilities. Coding is for the long term... and you usually get paid a salary, even if you don't work a standard job. The game changes, you have to start thinking in long term.

There's certainly a gap between coders and non-technical people in the understanding of what's possible, what is a priority, what clients expect, etc. There usually are 2 types of coders:
- those that don't ask questions and just work like a normal job, without caring much and who will find another job if this one doesn't work (coding is in high demand around Europe and the US)
- those who what to understand all the reasoning behind the code the write, and who will have to be convinced to do certain tasks, even if they are "just an employee".

You generally need a mix, but depending on the company type and the managers, you might need more of one rather than the other. The second type can make better coders for harder tasks and they often want skin in the game, while the first type are the juniors and grinders who you just need to pump out code. It's generally not easy to explain to a coder the big picture of the project, and to explain the value of soft skills.

While I have a coding and poker background, where 0s and 1s and EV are the main ways of thinking, the soft skills are the main asset or edge of our business compared to many competitors. Most coders would never understand that...


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Please don't go into forex, it's a sinkhole:f_o: The people who make money from forex are those teaching it (they don't trade, they coach) and the big funds who can take risks in their investments and have quite some extra info, sicko AIs, etc.

wow :) are you really so sure? :) in the coaching I was, the coach said he does not like coaching, because he earns more by playing forex, than with coaching. And who hired (investing magazine guys) him said they had hard time asking him to make a coaching. And the coach looked very honest about what he talks. And he kind of even revealed too much, because next coaching had to be for money, and the magazine guy tried nicely to stop him revealing too much info, but we kept asking questions and he was answering Or maybe I am too naive or what, I am not sure.
And about AI - since I am programmer, I would also consider to write AI, which would be fun, not like in poker where you could write, but it is illegal and your account can be freezed forever.

Sounds to me like your company is also not the best. How many people work there?

Maybe it is not the best in the world, its Lithuania :) best companies probably are in west - like UK, Sweden, etc. But I guess it is one of the best in my country, at least I have not found better one so far. I have no idea how to identify a better one here. Usually I heard smaller companies are worse. Here there are about 250 people working and most of them programmers.

The thing with overtime is that if you do it too often, you will be asked to do it again and again.

Yea, I understand it. Once I finish this long task, I will try to work less than 8 hours bit by bit, till I reach stage where I do not have overtime accumulated anymore. So in total I should not have too much overtime. If they will not give me again some long complicated task and little time But I really do not want to get fired, especially when I work there about half year only and also being fired does not feel good

There's quite a bit of $$ in coding when you go global and either freelance for companies all over the world, or you start your own company.

Yea, it should be true, but at the beggining of my carrer I tried freelancer.com - I could not get project. There were full of indian guys who take very cheaply. And I myself did not ask too much money till I build portfolio. Later I heard that freelancer.com is bad platform because of this.

Yea, starting a company, is good thing if you want this mess :) or maybe it is possible to start where I could have my own project, and do not hire people, but able to do it alone, despite some design tasks or so. Because hiring people is a huge problem, especially when there is huge demand for programmers.

About feedback - we do not get feedback in poker also. We need to play 100k hands to know if we are ok at the limit.

While I have a coding and poker background, where 0s and 1s and EV are the main ways of thinking, the soft skills are the main asset or edge of our business compared to many competitors. Most coders would never understand that...

yea, and the soft skill are which I lack a lot. I am reading books on this topic, and watch videos from various life coaches.

I remember one boss said - he would like to have a robots who just do all work instead of people, if that was possible. And he has much better soft skills how to deal with them than me. But really it is a message how annoying are those people. It might be that those who are able to deal best with those annoying people - has most success. Whether you are boss or employee.

But I was thinking about a company where I could have my own project and business partner who deals with people. But first thing, I have various ideas what I could do but I have no idea if those would bring me enough money so it would be worth to spend evenings and weekends on coding.
WHen I spend time on poker, at least even if I do not make lot of money, I feel pleasure of the game. Especially it feels good to outplay regular.

Also my long term goal of the company would be to have an easy job. So that nobody can tell I do task too long, I myself know if its too long or not. r I mean they could tell, if that is reasonable, but that would not mean I have now to worry much. I could decide myself maybe I do something which is not necessary maybe, or maybe it is impossible for me to do it faster and I just continue on doing if it is worth, or stop doing if it is not worth the time. The most important thing would be to not have stress in my own company, even if that means it is not earning maximum possible money.
And also I could work less, for example 4 hours per day on average :)

And if all works good and company has money, then could hire employees, if need to do tasks quicker but the partner should deal with them.

And also I am not sure how to split money with partner. I know one guy who was owning part of the startup and they did not write on paper how much each owns. And they understood differently, got angry at each other, needed lawyer help. And he was out of that startup, but as he stated he put a lot of work into programming. They promised to pay some money during year or 2. And before startup they were friends.

When I talked with my cousin about money, he just says - nobody will want to do something with you if you start thinking about how you will split money. But I do not want to be in a situation like that guy.

Same example I had with parents when they had a cows farm with another family. Everything ended up in anger because of money and they splitted after a year or so with lots of damage to the nerves. Again it was not officially done, it was like one owner, not 2 owners of the cows farm, and they thought that nobody would cheat, they were kind of friends. Maybe its not even cheating but misunderstanding who earns how much or smth like that. So again example of people problem.

But of course some are able to make business as partners somehow and agree on things. Probably I would need to search info about how to do that successfully. The first company I worked in was that example - like 3 guys had small project - one programmer, one director, and one do not know, just shareholder who sometimes worked - he was good with dealing with people. And now they do not work full time on that project, just hired salesmens and the project generates money. Probably little but passive income which is good.


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Rhodriguez
Joined: 01.10.2006

wow now it's FX, poker and programming - blog is getting better and better. It's one thing left on my bucket list to code a trading bot. But just for funsies - as I share EmanuelC16 scepticism to a certain degree. But to be honest it's not very different to most other businesses. Some people are better in selling themselves than doing the real thing they talking about. But yes there is also lot of cultism and a lack of financial literacy involved.

It's not quite the Dunning-Kruger effect but still similar. I think when you work together for a startup and put in the hours - you often have the feeling that the others don't value your invested time enough or even worse that they don't notice it. And later some people have the feeling they are entitled because they worked hard in the beginning and now it's the others turn.

It always baffles me how much money it costs to make money. On every step someone wants a cut.


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EmanuelC16
Joined: 02.01.2010

I didn't know that has an actual name and was studied. Gonna read up on the Dunning-Kruger effect :)

Regarding time invested and value provided, it's certainly true in startups and not only; the best solution imo is just to position yourself strategically to not be too vulnerable to other people's bias, or, if the group is well aware of potential biases, to develop a way to show this bias and then find a solution closer to reality. Everyone is vulnerable to being biased but some people, when shown the reality will adjust.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

wow now it's FX, poker and programming - blog is getting better and better.

It's not quite the Dunning-Kruger effect but still similar.

I have read this earlier, but it is hard for me to understand what it is :)

mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is.

so the one who thinks he is better than he actually is?

high-ability individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others

now how I am high ability if I just think but not really am high ability

Or there are 2 types of kruger effect - one which is high ability, and another who thinks he is high ability but not actually is?

the best solution imo is just to position yourself strategically to not be too vulnerable to other people's bias, or, if the group is well aware of potential biases, to develop a way to show this bias and then find a solution closer to reality. Everyone is vulnerable to being biased but some people, when shown the reality will adjust.

I did not understood what you mean.


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EmanuelC16
Joined: 02.01.2010

In short, people overestimate their value, or underestimate how hard some tasks are. So they are biased one way or another. It relates to how people make demands for their job, esp in startups, and the Dunning-Kruger effect. :)


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Still no poker but now after kind of finished the difficult and long task at work which took me overtime, I now feel bit more relaxed. Could maybe start thinking about going back to poker, but still thinking about job too much after working hours, so not sure, maybe need to wait.

Also still reading a book about office politics, and also it is bit boring, but I need to finish it. Mostly boring because it asks questions - like "think what you would do differently than now". I do not know - what should I do differently - the book should tell me

Also I was in P2P lending seminar of one local company which acts as connector between investors and lenders. Got interested in this also, because

  • you do not need much money to invest - similar as in poker.
  • you do not need actually money at all, because you get free 15 eur :)
  • you should not need to spend too much time on it, but spending and searching for better investment sports should increase your profit.

You can configure automatic investment rules by various parameters like age, salary, , percents per year and other.

Its like a primitive investment bot. And you can forget probably after you have configured, just check how is it going from time to time.

The things I do not like is that I do not see if those people are real, are their salaries real, are the delays real.

But they say - its the good thing for those who borrow - to be anonimous. There is some logic - you do not want maybe that your parents know if you are taking loan with 25% interest those are like fish in poker.

And as in poker there we need to calculate the risk. The problem is that I do not know if it is plus EV to invest in that guy who accepts 25 % interest, because I do not know the probability of his return. I have to somehow estimate the probabilty from the info I have.
Or if I have invested a lot, I could check my statistics. Of course this platform has all the statistics, of how often with some parameters loans are paid but I did not see them. Maybe I should ask them in public forum where they answer, so they would show those stats.

And about trust - they claim they have electronic money license from Lithuanian bank, so that sounds of course more serious. Poker rooms also could do thing like this to increase trust.
And as they state - the bank does not give licenses to anyone of course, so they do good, there are requirements which they have to meet, so we can trust.

Of course would be good to know more info, but this required time. While I am just trying out for free money I do not want to invest too much time.

This sounds nice, but it feels - how can be there easy money. Or maybe they are easy because they are not big money. Unless you have like 50 000 eur to invest, but that would mean that I need to have like 5 millions, because I would not want to invest all my money into this which I am not so sure can I trust.

And then again, what do I do with remaining money inflation is eating remaining money alive. So there is no end. I cannot invest big money where I do not know what I am doing.

Oh and I saw PS wrote an article on investing topic:

https://www.pokerstrategy.com/news/world-of-poker/Jens-Kyll%C3%B6nen-announces-poker-retirement_100100/

really, this guy made millions, and probably its good choice by him to learn economics, so that he know what to do with that money. Of course if the school is good.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Update. Still am in a huge rat race. Cannot be stop thinking about job after work.

Poker/life/programming/investing balance is smth like 0/10%/89%/1%

I am not able to 100 % free time read those books, so I waste some time on facebook and reading news. Its partly a life to stop from imrpoving and waste some time, chat with people about random stuff.

Trying to learn things to be better at job. Finished reading book https://www.amazon.com/Secrets-Winning-Office-Politics-Influence/dp/0312332181

WHat can I say. There were few things new, but actually not so much. Especially after I have read book "How to win friends and influence people". Some things really looked like from this book.

And also I hated most that this book gives questions like "what you are currently doing wrong?", "What will you do next?"

I hardly can find the answers. I expect the answers from the book. If I knew what I am doing wrong and what should I do differently, then I maybe would not need a book and everything would be fine.

Btw I liked how to win friends book. I am applying in practice. Maybe I am not making many new friends, but I think I get less enemies and keep current friends bit easier I guess. Only I hate that I cannot say what I think often when applying those things, which creates anger. But there are some people to who I can talk without thinking "I should not say this now because he will be angry". With those people was easy to talk, did not even need the book.

Now started reading book "The Start-up of you: Adapt to the future, Invest in youself, and transform your career" which recommenced EmanuelC16.

https://www.amazon.com/Start-up-You-Future-Yourself-Transform-ebook/dp/B00755MHV8/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1489610364&sr=1-1&keywords=the+startup+of+you

First chapter already looks interesting, easy read. So far I do not expect that it will change my career that I will become highly successful, as book about office politics did not do much.

But will try to read and see, since he as repeating few times to read it :)

I missed times when I get back from work and relax playing poker. I have to do something


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Still no poker, but last week at work was much better and also I found a time to make a call to a forex broker who was trying to call me few times but I did not have time to answer during their working hours.

And I got so hooked on forex :) the broker explained many things to me which I did not understand, first time we talked like 40 minutes. It is interesting becuase I am so noob, so I will not generate instant profit for them I believe from my small bets.

I got 20 eur registration bonus, and also I was talking in lithuanina traders forum and trying to understand even more things.

Too bad that forum has lot of trash talking people that its not fun to chat. Maybe will search for another forum with less trash talking.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Playing around with my forex demo account :) so hooking that I am so big noob and still not crusshed if we do not could few bets which are complete nonsense and most noobish :)

Like that one 5k loss was just while talking on the phone and broker explaining how to use platform, he said to buy this. And I did not set stop loss and it was not rising, and I did not care, but later decided to close it.

Then anohter experiment where lost 155

then where I lost 42.86 it was 2 mistakes: buying when trend is going down. I thought i got down, so it might go up likely. But on another forum they said its nonsense to do so, and there is bigger probabilityt that trend will go down if it is going down.

I still do not understand the logic fully about it but from the small sample when I made bets by this logic, it worker much better :)

Another mistake was that I bought too much - 0.1 lot, where as a noob I should play low stakes - buy 0.01 lot. So that would make loss 10 times lower. Of course on demo account there was 50 k eur, so bankroll is enough, but I am trying to get used to numbers which I would trade with real money.

And I made 0.1 becuase in web interface the default value is 0.1 and everytime you need to set manually 0.01.

But now I have installed MT4 client and there you can set your default amount value and should never make such mistake.

So if I take only the rows after the date where they teached me to trade by trend, it looks much better, only that sample is very small.

8.73 positive and

7.68 negative (if we woudl divide 24.7 loss by 10 which I intentionally wanted)

and over 9 trades sample I am in profit in demo acount.

Nice for complete noob

Also made couple of trades using real money - got 20 eur bonus, and lost about 2-3 eur.
So overall slight loss but still I thought I will be crushed. Actually I would have been crushed if not this advice from forum to think about trend line.

And as I am not so crushed, I am reading lot of articles, watch videos about this, its just interesting. I want to at least get a sence of of how hard it can be.

I saw in another thread that you can still combine this with poker, because once you set a bet, you can go do smth else. Of course I should not expect maximum profit, because the more you understand, the more you should make.

But like recently there was a position which I opened and it it was closed when reached TP limit after 3 days. So you can do whatever you want during that time.

I have read an article with probabilty calculations in excel sheet from the sample of graph data. Looks awesome, I like math things which can make money. It was about trend line also and how to choose SL and TP limits. I think they are very important, because even if you guess correctly how the trend goes but do not set enough SL limit for the variance, then it might reach too soon.

On the other hand if you set SL with wide gap from the current price, but narrow gap for TP, then you will will win very often but you will win small amount. So you need to be right much more often to compensate those rare but big losses in that case.

I like very much that you can play for play money in level as you would have in high stakes and see how you do which is not possible in poker.

In poker you play for play money you win easily, but you might not beat even NL2.

Its just first fun. Maybe after some time when I will see that its too hard, I will give up.

I have also heard that its a very psychological game. Lot of people bust their rolls because they want profit too quickly. And because of this I think I have advantage. I understnad what is bankroll management and I understand that its not an easy profit which will make me buy luxury cars and houses over month.

I do not get how those people not understand and want too easy money too quickly.

Another thing which I like in forex is that you can legally use bots, not like in poker. And I am a programmer, so if I could see some algorithm which works, I could write a script for it which sounds super cool. Of course first need to know how profit is made without bot.

From one broker I heard that there are some working scripts, only that they work for some time only. Proably againg would be too easy if you write some bot which wins forever so there would be no money to make because they already would be written :)

Still need lots of at least basic things to understand here, like why trend continues so long.

Oh and there is nice adrenalline when you see that you will soon reach TP when price starts suddenly move :)


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