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Paired board - cbet facing 3bet

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Guthans
Joined: 16.12.2009

Hey,
I totally choked out and went full station here, but nevermind that :f_rolleyes: How do we play here vs an unknown villain with this type of hand? cbet/folding feels superweak/abusable and bet/calling feels kinda suicidal? Call and re-evaluate?

Poker Stars, $2 Buy-in (1,100/2,200 blinds, 275 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37642368

MP1: 15,958 (7.3 bb)
MP2: 83,926 (38.1 bb)
MP3: 34,695 (15.8 bb)
Hero (CO): 59,119 (26.9 bb)
BTN: 55,356 (25.2 bb)
SB: 101,659 (46.2 bb)
BB: 97,428 (44.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8♠ A♣
3 folds, Hero raises to 4,510, 2 folds, BB calls 2,310

Flop: (12,045) 8♥ 9♦ 9♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 4,216, BB raises to 11,000, Hero calls 6,784

Turn: (34,045) 5♣ (2 players)
BB bets 17,023, Hero calls 17,023

River: (68,091) 6♠ (2 players)
BB bets 64,620 and is all-in, Hero calls 26,311 and is all-in


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7 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

His check/raise seems strong and you only beat a weaker 9 and bluffs that would play like this. Off course you should expect he would check/call a 8 or 88/99 and 3bet TT+ pre-flop and that makes it tricky to put him on a good check/raise range I think on a dry board like this.

I would most likely shoving in a spot like this, because I expect you have almost always the best hand and if he had a kind of straight draw you want to protect your hand against it.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Guthans
Joined: 16.12.2009

I see. Sounds like a good assessment. Any idea at what depth of blinds this gets unprofitable, shoving vs reraise otf?


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

If we had almost the same stack as villain now I would first make a 3bet and If he shoves then we can still fold.


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Kinghu
Joined: 27.09.2016

I think the BB check raise on this flop is something I would do with every hand that called preflop, as the CO would find it hard to continue without a 9, and you would certainly put a 9 in the BB's range, with hands T9s, J9s, A9s, 89s,79s

I would call the check raise as he does have a lot of bluffs in his range for doing that, and not a lot of 9's when two are already out. I would plan to fire at him if he doesn't bet turn, to make him fold these bluffs/draws, but give up if he double barrels.

In the BB I would fire one and done (the checkraise), if it didn't push you off the pot

When he fires the second barrell, I think its less likely a pure bluff, and more JT, 67 and actually having a 9 (as SDK1987 says TT+ would have 3 bet pre flop) and would have folded, as he is either committed to the bluff, or is going to make it a big pot and we are not sure where we are at, so I would fold.

Looking into it in more detail giving BB a range of 66,77,88,99,56s,67s,78s,89s,JTs,T9s,J9s,A9s,79s,QJ,QT (few OESD and gutshots) we are 52% ahead, if we add total bluffs or hands like KJ,KT,AT,AJ, we move ahead.

So on the turn if you think his range is slightly tighter than 66,77,88,99,56s,67s,78s,89s,JTs,T9s,J9s,A9s,79s,QJ,QT, your best folding. If you think its wider, push and put him off the draws.

Personally as said earlier I would fold.


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Guthans
Joined: 16.12.2009

Thanks alot for the detailed answers peeps, I appreciate it. :f_drink:
I agree with the assessment and given that this is the microes, I should have some edge, a fold OTT should be the way to go.

@Kinghu
Thanks for doing the math. Did you use like equilab or something for that?


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Kinghu
Joined: 27.09.2016

To be honest did that in work and just searched for a free one online, not sure which it was. At home I have PokerTracker 4 which has an equity calculator which is useful.

Personally when reviewing spots like this I like to work out when we would have about 50% equity against his range and then we know roughly for similar spots in the future, what holding you would need to be ahead, or adjust that slightly if you think he is looser/tighter than what you'd expect.

In this case in a similar spot in future, (I think if you had an overpair your equity is about the same) if you think he doesn't play suited connectors as much and more broadway cards you know you should be good against his range.


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samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

He shouldn't bet any weaker hands than A8 on the turn (and A8 he shoudln't be raising flop with) so we're totally crushed by his line here. I go call flop and then give up.


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