888 10$ 9-man turbo 30/60 88 push 24 BB deep against loose-passive limpers

You have position, you (probably) have an edge on opponents.
Shoving for 24bb deep is burning money imo. Risk/reward is not in balance. It looks like "fear of flopping". You are overthinking this too much.

So if I had raised here I would have seen a 4-way flop most of the time... There is almost always going to be at least one overcard and I will be forced to hit a set or check/fold against four donkeys...

This is talking yourself into making wrong decisions.

Raise ~300 and play poker imo, or limp behind for setmining. (though I think that the combination of 88 and position here is too strong just to limp).

I would raise here as well with 88 and make it most like 250 in position. No need to make it more and if you end up multi way you can always give up if the flop isn’t good for you without risking your entire stack

Cheers,
SDK1987

This is talking yourself into making wrong decisions.

What is in particular wrong with my argument? These loose-passive donkeys will never fold to my raise after they have limped preflop and the loose-passive BB is very likely to call my raise as well. Let's say the BB will call 50% of the time and the initial limpers 90% of the time each. So on average I will face two opponents (rounded down) otf.

The probability that at least one overcard appears otf is is 88%. Do you c-bet with 88 against two or three on a flop with overcard after they have checked to you? I don't. Ott, if we don't hit a set, we can just fold to any bet >1/3 pot. Against two or three opponents, we will almost never be able to check it down... One of them will either bet turn or river.

After all, if we follow your suggestion, we will end up losing ~300 chips in about 75% of the time (this is my guess for "P overcard on the flop * P we win the pot multiway in spite of overcards).

Making a decision that will cost me almost 1/4 of my stack in around 3/4 of all cases comes closer to what I would define as "burning money"...

You have position, you (probably) have an edge on opponents.

My edge on the opponents is, amongst other things, defined as the ability to keep myself out of marginal spots in the early game and preventing myself from being forced into difficult postflop decisions (e.g. "Do I call a 3/5 pot donk-bet with 88 on a 74J flop in the sandwich?"

Shoving for 24bb deep is burning money imo. Risk/reward is not in balance

"Burning money" I would only call a play that is without any doubt clearly -EV. Do you really think that applies for my push here? The two limpers before me are calling stations and almost never trapping. There are only two opponents left to act after my push, how likely is it that one oft them will have 99 or a better pair? If this is a clearly burning-money -EV push, could you prove this with an equation?

Yes, we are 24 BB deep, but there is a big pot already that is worth a risk (2 limpers + antes). If you look at our M instead of the number BBs, you might judge things differently...

What i mean when talking about talking yourself into making sub-optimal play is:

These loose-passive donkeys will never fold to my raise after they have limped preflop and the loose-passive BB is very likely to call my raise as well. Let's say the BB will call 50% of the time and the initial limpers 90% of the time each. So on average I will face two opponents (rounded down) otf.

These are assumptions. I didn't happen yet. We just don't know and therefore I think we are basing our decision on too much assumptions, were other plays give us more info.

I would say that the combination of our hand strength and position here favor a raise were we try to isolate (hopefully) one player. Yes, it will be likely that we see an overcard otf. But this doesn't automatically mean we end the hand there. It depends on the board texture and the way villains react.

My edge on the opponents is, ..."

I think you have to add your general ability to THINK about poker. The way your are looking into your game, post hands on the forum, the way you try to work on your game just simply makes us a thinking player. And by this you can outplay your opponent postflop or extract a lot of value for sure. And yes, this is not a super simple spot, but I do think you are good enough to take it and make it profitable.

I don't think it is up to me to calculate the numbers and with two players it will have a lot of assumptions . And to clarify, I don't think this is a massive -EV play... I just think that this way we are losing a lot of value, make it a high variance spot and by this put our further/later edge in these games on the line.

When I would do the math, I would look at the following and only calculate a situation where just 1 villain calls (since I don't think a lot of players would go to a 24bb limp shove pot):
A) cEV Chance {Hero shoves, everybody folds}
b) cEV Chance {Hero shoves, 1 villain calls, hero wins} we would have to make up a calling range for villain. I'd say something like (suited) broadways, A9-AJ, pairs 22-TT and some traps AA/KK?
c) cEV Chance {Hero shoves, 1 villain calls, villain wins}