Flopped straight in a MW 3Bet pot on a monotone board

It is simple - villain is x/shoving mw on mono board. Do you think you are good to Call?

This one we can't call because we can't improve our hand anymore. I also would OR with 2.5BB on BTN (and CO as well) since you have more fold equity from these positions.

Originally posted by nitrol
It is simple - villain is x/shoving mw on mono board. Do you think you are good to Call?

I actually do (well, did), otherwise I would probably just mark this in HM as "Fuckups for review", realize my mistake and move on. However, it still bugs me.

I thought about this very long before I called and thought: "OK, so the Villain is relatively unknown. A2s (discounting Ah2h that beats us) if he 3Bet me light preflop which I think is possible due to very small 3Bet size and if he flopped the wheel, he can definitely shove. We are at NL5, it would not be uncommon for someone to play QxQh like this. AhKx may definitely be a possibility (the Kh beats me ofc), AxKh same thing. I don't think sets are a possibility (wouldn't 3Bet pre). AA and KK are unlikely (would 3Bet bigger pre). AhKh and AhQh beat me (and possibly some random heart connectors / gappers), but I don't think they make up his range exclusively so I call." I have even seen people at NL5 play their pocket JJ like this, but against a relatively unknown Villain, I didn't go that far in my thoughts.

Is my thinking stupid / outlandish in this case against a relatively unknown (possibly tight) NL5 Villain?

Originally posted by Hesticus
This one we can't call because we can't improve our hand anymore. I also would OR with 2.5BB on BTN (and CO as well) since you have more fold equity from these positions.

I experimented with the OR size a bit and think I like the 3 BB more from the LPs as I felt people are defending their blinds much wider and 3Betting me lighter. May have been a fluke, so I should probably monitor this over a session or two to have some statistical evidence, but I decided to stick to 3 BB for now - especially as I found myself thinking time and time again "Riiiight, let's go for the 2.5 BB OR. Oh boy, another 3Bet, this sucks." so it makes me more comfortable at this point, I may shift it as I move up the stakes.

As Hesticus said, you could be opening a bit smaller from late positions. 2 - 2.5bb should be ok from CO,BTN&SB. This lets you steal wider.

You said that he would 3bet AA and KK bigger. I have to disagree with that. Villain is using a very fishy 3bet size which means that he might be unpredictable. His raise size doesn't make any sense so it is difficult to know his logic. It might very well be a trappy smally 3bet because he wants calls.

To answer your main question, yes I think you should expect villain to 3bet you light especially if he knows that BB is tight and you are stealing wide. But as I already said, villain looks like a fish because of his 3bet size, so you should not rely too much on this.
Thinking that villain could shove just with nut FD is quite optimistic. I would say that he probably has a made flush or an overpair with single heart.

Originally posted by MrHappie

Is my thinking stupid / outlandish in this case against a relatively unknown (possibly tight) NL5 Villain?

Only problem I see is that you just figured out some weaker hands which villain could have (and even those hands have over 30% equity against you).
Instead you should put a huge amount of flushes to his range too, because he might play those like this too, right? After you have figured out his hands that already beat you, then you add the hands that you beat, and then think if you have a lot of equity (you need a lot vs his shove).

MP2 26.70% 26.49% 0.21% 7c6s
CO 73.30% 73.10% 0.21% AdAh, AhAs, AhAc, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, QdQh, QhQs, QhQc, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Ah2h, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh, Ah2d, Ah2s, Ah2c

As you can see, it doesn't matter much if villain shoves with overpairs that have single heart or AhKx or other stupid stuff if he also shoves with 20+ combos of flushes.

Yeah, now I see that I am probably guilty of trying to look for the best case scenario instead of starting with the worst case scenario which I should always do. Those other flushes I didn't think about, because I didn't expect him to 3Bet things like KhJh, but if I assume he might 3Bet light A2s, he might as well 3Bet KJs. Probably comes down to me loving my flopped straight, oh well... :f_biggrin::f_drink: Thanks.

In fact you should put mainly flushes in his range. He is making moves mw. Even fish does not do this wide.